SBu
DP Veteran
- Joined
- Sep 2, 2013
- Messages
- 1,523
- Reaction score
- 636
- Location
- Washington State
- Gender
- Male
- Political Leaning
- Centrist
Well here goes. Never posted in this forum before, but this is the biggest aviation mystery of our time and I think could pose an interesting conspiracy debate.
I still think the flight experienced some catastrophic failure, but let's examine the other possibilities. Assuming that the aircraft landed someplace, it is hard to believe that a group of ragtag terrorists could have pulled off such a feat without some kind of help from a state sponsor or organized terror group that has substantial control of parts of a state. Keeping that in mind, what major groups or countries would be willing to stir up outrage in China to accomplish some yet unforeseen objective, and what could that objective be.
Iran? No. China and Iran are close partners, and radar coverage around Iran is pretty top notch. Doesn't mean Iran couldn't have been involved in some covert way, but no way it could be in or around Iran. I also don't think Iran would be willing to be involved in something like this because it is too high profile and would isolate them from their Chinese partners if found out. Then again there were apparently two Iranians on board with stolen passports. BBC listed them as potential defectors, in which case maybe Iran would have had some kind of interest in preventing them from defecting. They wouldn't risk war with China though.
Chinese separatists? Recently I heard that one of the ethic Uyghurs was on board, and one of their groups have claimed responsibility. That claim has been dismissed by governments. The passenger in question was a university professor working in Turkey and returning home for some reason. One man, with a cushy university job, not a very likely suspect to take over an entire airplane and land it someplace. That is unless he had co-conspirators on board with him as the flight was overwhelmingly Chinese by nationality. Likely, however, that if this was a hijacking by these groups, they would have continued into China to crash it, or have made demands fairly early in the disappearance. Given the new search locations identified , I think this is unlikely.
Muslim extremists generally? Possible. The most likely scenario in this case I think would have been an inside job by the pilot and/or copilot with the help of a co-conspirator or two in the back. They wouldn't have flown north or north west because of good radar coverage in India, China, the US in the 'stans', and Russia beyond. Possibly they landed someplace in Somalia controlled by Islamist rebels. Poor radar coverage there, likely that the rebel groups there control some kind of airport, and any number of state sponsors could be involved covertly in that lawless region with plausible deny-ability. It is also within range.
China itself? Hmmmm, interesting. The vast majority of passengers were Chinese, so China as a state would have relatively little to lose. China released the false positive satellite photos which is interesting because they were rebuffed within 24 hours, a bit of an embarrassment ... or an intentional act to delay or suspend searching in the true location of the flight path. Had the flight turned north into China, well then the lack of radar reports or sightings aren't so surprising because China would have been complicit in the disappearance. Why would they do this? That is where the theory falls apart because there's no good reason unless China had a national interest in someone or something on the plane.
Most probable if it was terrorism is that they took over and incompetently crashed the plane into the sea someplace not heavily traversed by ocean traffic.
What do you think?
I still think the flight experienced some catastrophic failure, but let's examine the other possibilities. Assuming that the aircraft landed someplace, it is hard to believe that a group of ragtag terrorists could have pulled off such a feat without some kind of help from a state sponsor or organized terror group that has substantial control of parts of a state. Keeping that in mind, what major groups or countries would be willing to stir up outrage in China to accomplish some yet unforeseen objective, and what could that objective be.
Iran? No. China and Iran are close partners, and radar coverage around Iran is pretty top notch. Doesn't mean Iran couldn't have been involved in some covert way, but no way it could be in or around Iran. I also don't think Iran would be willing to be involved in something like this because it is too high profile and would isolate them from their Chinese partners if found out. Then again there were apparently two Iranians on board with stolen passports. BBC listed them as potential defectors, in which case maybe Iran would have had some kind of interest in preventing them from defecting. They wouldn't risk war with China though.
Chinese separatists? Recently I heard that one of the ethic Uyghurs was on board, and one of their groups have claimed responsibility. That claim has been dismissed by governments. The passenger in question was a university professor working in Turkey and returning home for some reason. One man, with a cushy university job, not a very likely suspect to take over an entire airplane and land it someplace. That is unless he had co-conspirators on board with him as the flight was overwhelmingly Chinese by nationality. Likely, however, that if this was a hijacking by these groups, they would have continued into China to crash it, or have made demands fairly early in the disappearance. Given the new search locations identified , I think this is unlikely.
Muslim extremists generally? Possible. The most likely scenario in this case I think would have been an inside job by the pilot and/or copilot with the help of a co-conspirator or two in the back. They wouldn't have flown north or north west because of good radar coverage in India, China, the US in the 'stans', and Russia beyond. Possibly they landed someplace in Somalia controlled by Islamist rebels. Poor radar coverage there, likely that the rebel groups there control some kind of airport, and any number of state sponsors could be involved covertly in that lawless region with plausible deny-ability. It is also within range.
China itself? Hmmmm, interesting. The vast majority of passengers were Chinese, so China as a state would have relatively little to lose. China released the false positive satellite photos which is interesting because they were rebuffed within 24 hours, a bit of an embarrassment ... or an intentional act to delay or suspend searching in the true location of the flight path. Had the flight turned north into China, well then the lack of radar reports or sightings aren't so surprising because China would have been complicit in the disappearance. Why would they do this? That is where the theory falls apart because there's no good reason unless China had a national interest in someone or something on the plane.
Most probable if it was terrorism is that they took over and incompetently crashed the plane into the sea someplace not heavily traversed by ocean traffic.
What do you think?
