3/24/20
And as of March 24, Russia’s official tally of confirmed coronavirus cases stood at just 495, clustered mainly in Moscow but also scattered across at least 46 cities and regions. That put Russia, with a population of about 144 million, at a per-capita level comparable to places in Central America and southern Africa, where the coronavirus is so far almost nonexistent. By contrast, many neighboring and nearby European nations are seeing much higher rates of confirmed cases. And then, of course, there’s China, where the virus originated and with which Russia shares a 4,200-kilometer border -- a border that Moscow ordered closed weeks ago, on January 30. So what exactly is going on with Russia’s coronavirus numbers? Is the country in fact seeing abnormally low rates of infection, despite traveling tourists and cross-border trade? Or, as a growing number of Russians theorize, is the government keeping its official tally artificially low, perhaps to prevent panic or shield the shortcomings of the country's creaky health-care system? Or maybe it’s a simpler bureaucratic answer: Is it just because of how the country has been testing for the cases up until now? Russian authorities appear to have been aware of the dangers earlier than many countries. With cases exploding in the Chinese province where the city of Wuhan is located, Russia moved to close down its massive land-and-river border with China, first to people, then to cargo. Since then, Russia’s tally of confirmed cases has climbed, albeit at a rate noticeably slower than other countries.
In Russia, the bulk of the confirmed cases are located in the country’s most populous city: Moscow. Official figures, as of March 24, say 262 cases were in the Russian capital, plus an additional 35 in the region surrounding the city. Russian authorities also report what seems to be an aggressive testing regime: nearly 166,000 nationwide. That’s comparable to testing numbers in other countries, though it dwarfs that of the United States, whose response to the coronavirus has been hampered by a lack of tests. One explanation for the apparent disparity is how testing has been conducted to date. Up until recently, suspected cases were tested using a tool developed by a state-funded laboratory in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, known by its shorthand name Vektor. But a Russian science blog called PCR News, which said it had reviewed the specific protocols of the lab’s test, said it only detects the virus if it is over a certain threshold in a sample, and that threshold is far higher. And it also appeared to give a higher than expected number of “false positives.” “This may be the answer to the question why in Russia there are so few cases of coronavirus infection. It is possible that the ‘Vektor’ test reveals only the top of the pyramid,” the site said. According to at least one Russian scientist, the country could be facing an explosion in cases in the coming weeks, not unlike what has happened in Italy. “I have the impression for the moment that we’re about three weeks behind Italy, approximately,” Aleksandr Chepurnov, a Novosibirsk-based virologist and Academy of Sciences medical professor, told Russian state TV on March 23. “And, in principle, you should understand that most likely, we will experience the same history.”
