What Are The Chances Of An Uncontested Election?

[Moderate Right]

We have a presidential election. Voters vote. A winner and a loser are determined. The Loser gives a concession speech. Nothing goes to the courts.

 

[Ikari]

Unless it's some complete blow out, which is unlikely, regardless of who wins, this will probably end up in the courts.

 

[Rexedgar]

We have a presidential election. Voters vote. A winner and a loser are determined. The Loser gives a concession speech. Nothing goes to the courts.

Where were you in 2000?

Can your posts get any worse?


Bush v. Gore - Wikipedia

 

[apdst]

Unless it's some complete blow out, which is unlikely, regardless of who wins, this will probably end up in the courts.

Even if Trump wins by a landslide, like Reagan in 84 and the Democrats won't accept the results.

 

[Common Sense 1]

That seems to be the democratic plan. Muddy up the waters as much as possible. That why they are pushing vote by mail!
Just wait and see what a screwed up mess the voting by mail will be.

You heard what Hillary told Biden?

Hillary Clinton said on Monday that Joe Biden should not concede the presidential election “under any circumstances.”
(25 Aug 2020)

The dems have never accepted President Trump as our president. They are hiring hundreds of lawyers to contest the election.

It's game on.

 

[Ikari]

Even if Trump wins by a landslide, like Reagan in 84 and the Democrats won't accept the results.

The chances that Trump could pull off a Reagan level win are slim to none.

 

[Moderate Right]

Where were you in 2000?

Can your posts get any worse?


Bush v. Gore - Wikipedia

Ummmmmmmmmmm, I was referring to the 2020 election.

 

[Moderate Right]

Even if Trump wins by a landslide, like Reagan in 84 and the Democrats won't accept the results.

Yep. It will be the Russians or post office collusion, or both. Maybe they'll even throw in some others. And, you can bet if Trump wins, the House will find something to impeach him for. Could be anything. They will want to make sure Trump goes down in history as being the only president in history who was impeached twice, even if he wasn't removed both times.

 

[Ikari]

Yep. It will be the Russians or post office collusion, or both. Maybe they'll even throw in some others. And, you can bet if Trump wins, the House will find something to impeach him for. Could be anything. They will want to make sure Trump goes down in history as being the only president in history who was impeached twice, even if he wasn't removed both times.

If Biden wins, it's going to be something too. Probably along the lines of Chinese interference or mail-in voting. And if he does, the Republicans in Congress will sure as hell try their best to hamper him at every move. If Biden ****s up enough, maybe even try to push an impeachment, though I suppose that would then depend on how the mid-terms went.

 

[Moderate Right]

If Biden wins, it's going to be something too. Probably along the lines of Chinese interference or mail-in voting. And if he does, the Republicans in Congress will sure as hell try their best to hamper him at every move. If Biden ****s up enough, maybe even try to push an impeachment, though I suppose that would then depend on how the mid-terms went.

Yep. Turnabout is fair play. Democrats wrote the book. Republicans will follow it.

 

[EnigmaO01]

Ummmmmmmmmmm, I was referring to the 2020 election.

Then you did a poor job of stating that. That's not what was implied in your post.

Amazing all this talk of the democrats cheating but there is no precedent for that. Furthermore if anyone is fomenting talk about not accepting the election results it's our dear president. He did it last time too, until he won.

 

[Helix]

Tweety pissed and moaned even after losing the popular vote and winning the EC, so i'm not optimistic that he won't do what he always does regardless of the outcome.

 

[Integrityrespec]

We have a presidential election. Voters vote. A winner and a loser are determined. The Loser gives a concession speech. Nothing goes to the courts.

Not much chance of that happening.

 

[Moderate Right]

Then you did a poor job of stating that. That's not what was implied in your post.

Amazing all this talk of the democrats cheating but there is no precedent for that. Furthermore if anyone is fomenting talk about not accepting the election results it's our dear president. He did it last time too, until he won.

Apparently everyone else realized what I was talking about. I apologize if it was over your head.

 

[The AntiDonald]

Yep. Turnabout is fair play. Democrats wrote the book. Republicans will follow it.

Republicans will first need a majority. That ain't going to happen.

 

[MaryP]

Unless it's some complete blow out, which is unlikely, regardless of who wins, this will probably end up in the courts.

You think Biden would contest it if he lost? On what grounds?
Trump has been working on his arguments for over a year now, but I haven't heard that from Joe. Did I miss something?

 

[tacomancer]

We have a presidential election. Voters vote. A winner and a loser are determined. The Loser gives a concession speech. Nothing goes to the courts.

Analysis appears that Trump is on a trajectory to see the biggest blowout since Carter, except he is on the losing side. However, 50 days is still a long time to truly predict anything. This analysis is likely to be more accurate since 2016 since the biggest mistake was not weighting polls by education (however, the new electorate that Trump brought in has been well researched at this point), which was largely fixed in 2018 (which was quite accurate in aggregate polling, even if the mid west is not yet completely nailed down)

I personally see room for error in 2020 polling due to the Joe Rogan / new "traditionalist" types that I am not sure that pollsters are aware of yet.

If the current analysis rings true though, then the loss will be blamed on some spectre like mail in voting or people casting multiple ballots.

If Trump ends of winning, then the loss will be blamed on something like voter suppression and other trickery.

I expect the next 4 years to be full of protests and be quite rocky from a social standpoint no matter who wins. Another trend that will begin play out in the next four years will be how the various Latino populations decide on their various political stances and currently look like they might be headed towards an almost 60/40 split between preference between liberal and conservative policy.

 

[Moderate Right]

Republicans will first need a majority. That ain't going to happen.

Not they don't. They don't need a majority at all. The fight can go far, far beyond the federal government. Democrats have already shown us the way.

 

[Moderate Right]

Analysis appears that Trump is on a trajectory to see the biggest blowout since Carter, except he is on the losing side. However, 50 days is still a long time to truly predict anything. This analysis is likely to be more accurate since 2016 since the biggest mistake was not weighting polls by education (however, the new electorate that Trump brought in has been well researched at this point), which was largely fixed in 2018 (which was quite accurate in aggregate polling, even if the mid west is not yet completely nailed down)

I personally see room for error in 2020 polling due to the Joe Rogan / new "traditionalist" types that I am not sure that pollsters are aware of yet.

If the current analysis rings true though, then the loss will be blamed on some spectre like mail in voting or people casting multiple ballots.

If Trump ends of winning, then the loss will be blamed on something like voter suppression and other trickery.

I expect the next 4 years to be full of protests and be quite rocky from a social standpoint no matter who wins. Another trend that will begin play out in the next four years will be how the various Latino populations decide on their various political stances and currently look like they might be headed towards an almost 60/40 split between preference between liberal and conservative policy.

A lot of Latinos are Catholic. And, a lot of Latinos are actually against open borders, especially the ones who came here the legal way. And, a lot of Latinos were against opening up with Cuba. Democrats have nothing to address any of those Latinos with.

 

[haymarket]

We have a presidential election. Voters vote. A winner and a loser are determined. The Loser gives a concession speech. Nothing goes to the courts.

Very tiny given Trump is involved.

 

[tacomancer]

A lot of Latinos are Catholic. And, a lot of Latinos are actually against open borders, especially the ones who came here the legal way. And, a lot of Latinos were against opening up with Cuba. Democrats have nothing to address any of those Latinos with.

That is why I mentioned the various subgroups. In some cases you are correct, except for the Catholic thing which tends to split between democrats and republicans about 50/50. Better for your POV would be to look at the growing evangelical movement within those communities where conservative outreach may prove more fruitful, so long as it can be done in a way that doesn't alienate the uneducated white base.

How religious groups voted in the 2018 midterms | Pew Research Center

 

[Cardinal]

Republican poll watchers will contest every single absentee ballot in every swing state (that's not melodrama -- that's really a thing), and it will eventually go to the courts in nearly every instance.

The only way a much larger fight is avoided is if Florida comes in for Biden on election night. The months of November and December are going to suuuuuuck.

That said, I voted 67% because it's the poll option that's closest to 60%, the likelihood Nate Silver gives for Florida going to Biden.

2020 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight

 

[Ikari]

You think Biden would contest it if he lost? On what grounds?
Trump has been working on his arguments for over a year now, but I haven't heard that from Joe. Did I miss something?

If it's close, then yes.

 

[MaryP]

If it's close, then yes.

I was just thinking last night, with all the mail in votes to process and the clear possibility of demands for a recount or investigations, we may not know who the winner is for days--or weeks, or months. The one time it really matters, too. It sucks.

 

[Moderate Right]

I was just thinking last night, with all the mail in votes to process and the clear possibility of demands for a recount or investigations, we may not know who the winner is for days--or weeks, or months. The one time it really matters, too. It sucks.

That's what Trump has been trying to tell us. And, in 2016 we had over 300,000 disqualified mail in ballots. If this year three times as many voters vote by mail, we could have over one million disqualified votes.