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What Americans Think about Elections

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 77% of Likely U.S. voters believe education issues will be important in this year’s congressional elections, including 45% who expect it to be Very Important in the midterms. Only 18% don’t think education will be an important issue in November. Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin highlighted controversies over education, including the teaching of Critical Race Theory, last year to upset Democrat Terry McAuliffe in Virginia, a state President Joe Biden had won by 10 points in 2020. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters are concerned that public schools may be promoting controversial beliefs and attitudes, including 49% who are Very Concerned. Thirty percent (30%) are not concerned about controversial teaching in public schools, including 14% who are Not At All Concerned. Last October, 76% were concerned that schools might be promoting controversial beliefs.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 89% of Likely U.S. voters are concerned about inflation, including 64% who are Very Concerned. Just 11% aren’t concerned about the issue. Inflation has been at or near the top of the list of voter concerns all year, with 85% saying they were concerned about the issue in August. Sixty percent (60%) now say the policies of President Joe Biden's administration have increased inflation, a finding just slightly changed since May. Only 13% believe Biden’s policies have decreased inflation, while 23% think Biden’s policies have not made much difference in inflation. Eighty-four percent (84%) expect inflation to be an important issue in this year’s congressional elections, including 61% who think the issue will be Very Important. Just 13% don’t think inflation will be important in next month’s midterms.
 
Okay, at this point the Republican lead is no longer minor.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another seven percent (7%) are not sure. The GOP lead is up three points from last week, when they led 47% to 43%. Republicans have led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year, although their lead has narrowed since mid-July, when they led by as much as 10 points.
 
Time for another "What Americans Think ..." thread! Like the others these will generally be Rasmussen polls, when they do something specific enough. In this case, it's the Trump/DeSantis matchup!

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is very popular with Republican voters, but if former President Donald Trump seeks the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, most expect Trump would beat DeSantis.



Personally, I hope Trump doesn't run--in which case we'll almost certainly see a President-elect DeSantis taking the oath in 2025. If Trump does run things get a lot more iffy, and the disapproval and "Very" numbers they each have show why.
I’m a swing voter who voted against both Trump and Clinton in 2016 by casting my ballot for Johnson. I once again voted against Trump in 2020 by casting my ballot for Biden. If Trump were to run again in 2024, I’d vote against him. That doesn’t mean I’m an automatic vote for the Democrat, I’m not. If I didn’t like who the democrats put up, I’d vote third party again.



Now if DeSantis is the GOP nominee, I consider voting for him. It would depend on who the Democrats nominate. The only certain thing about my 2024 vote is it would never be for Trump. Being a swing voter, I looked at the latest poll to see how independents view Trump. 15% very favorably, 20% somewhat favorably, 41% very unfavorably, 14% somewhat unfavorably. Since the Republican Party is the smaller of the two major parties, they must win the independent vote or lose the election. Considering that the total favorable/unfavorable view of swing voters, independents is 35/55, I don’t think Trump can win independents. Question 65G. There’re way too many swing voters who dislike him. Not so much for his policies, but as a person. We tired of Trump’s childish antics like name calling, throwing of temper tantrums, of his 3rd grade schoolyard bullying tactics, plain acting like a spoiled 4-year-old brat instead of like an adult or a president should along with insisting he won in 2020 when he clearly lost. He’s too much of an egotist for most independent’s blood.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/szo0yco18u/econTabReport.pdf

At least DeSantis behaves like a grownup instead of a spoiled brat. DeSantis is basically not know to swing voters, independents. Swing voters view him 24% very favorably, 11% somewhat favorably, total 35% favorable while 24% of swing voters view DeSantis very unfavorably, 7% somewhat unfavorably, total 31% unfavorably. Question 26C above. 34% are in the don’t know column, probably have no idea who DeSantis is. But unlike Trump, DeSantis does have the ability to attract many more independent voters than Trump ever could.
 
I’m a swing voter who voted against both Trump and Clinton in 2016 by casting my ballot for Johnson. I once again voted against Trump in 2020 by casting my ballot for Biden. If Trump were to run again in 2024, I’d vote against him. That doesn’t mean I’m an automatic vote for the Democrat, I’m not. If I didn’t like who the democrats put up, I’d vote third party again.

Now if DeSantis is the GOP nominee, I consider voting for him. It would depend on who the Democrats nominate. The only certain thing about my 2024 vote is it would never be for Trump.
I'm in a somewhat similar position. While I'll never vote for a Democrat, I'll never vote for Trump, either. If DeSantis runs I'll be happy to vote for him.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 44% of Likely U.S. voters will vote early this year, while 53% plan to wait until Election Day. Significantly more Democrats (50%) than Republicans (36%) plan to vote early this year. Forty-five percent (45%) of voters unaffiliated with either major party say they’ll vote early. Thirty-seven states now allow in-person early voting with no absentee ballot, and 73% of voters say they live in states where early voting is available. However, 20% are not sure if early voting is available in their state. A majority of voters expect Republicans to win majorities in both the U.S. House and Senate in next month’s midterm elections. Sixty-seven percent (67%) say it’s likely the GOP will win control of the House, including 38% who say a Republican majority is Very Likely in the House. Fifty-eight percent (58%) think the Republicans will likely win control of the Senate, including 24% who believe it’s Very Likely.
And for once I actually agree with Democrats on something--Nevada has early voting, and I've taken advantage of it on one of the last weekends before each general election since I moved here. That's what I'll be doing this weekend.
 
I'm in a somewhat similar position. While I'll never vote for a Democrat, I'll never vote for Trump, either. If DeSantis runs I'll be happy to vote for him.


And for once I actually agree with Democrats on something--Nevada has early voting, and I've taken advantage of it on one of the last weekends before each general election since I moved here. That's what I'll be doing this weekend.
I think early voting although portrayed nationally as the Democratic Party being for it and the Republican Party being against it is wrong. It is left up to the states with each one deciding if and when early voting begins. We’ve been a Republican state here in Georgia since 2002 when we elected our first ever Republican governor and state legislature. Georgia began early voting in 2008 while being what is or was described as a Red State. Almost every state allows early voting in person except for those states who have or are going to mail in ballots only along with the exceptions of Alabama, Connecticut, Mississippi, New Hampshire which don’t offer early voting. 2 red and 2 blue states.

https://www.vote.org/early-voting-calendar/

I stayed home this week, but I’ll probably go vote early next week to give the rush time to die down.
 
So the Republicans are back down to the point the Generic Congressional Ballot question has been bouncing around for weeks, now:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 43% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another seven percent (7%) are not sure. The GOP lead is down three points from last week, when they led 48% to 41%. Republicans have led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year, although their lead has narrowed since mid-July, when they led by as much as 10 points.

Note the 7% "Not Sure"--they are the ones that are going to play the major role in deciding just how much of a shellacking the Democrats take.
 
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that, if the Senate election were held today, 45% of Pennsylvania Likely Voters would vote for the Democrat, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, while 43% would vote for the Republican, Dr. Mehmet Oz. Six percent (6%) say they’d vote for some other candidate, while another six percent (6%) are undecided. The Pennsylvania race, to fill the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, is seen as a key pickup opportunity for Democrats in this year’s midterms. In the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, 43% would vote for the Democrat if the election were held today, state Attorney General Josh Shapiro, while 40% would vote for Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano. Six percent (6%) would vote for some other candidate and another 10% are undecided. If the elections for Congress were held today, 45% of Pennsylvania Likely Voters would vote for the Republican candidate and 44% would vote for the Democratic candidate.

As I've been saying for awhile now, in close races it comes down to the Undecideds, and it's going to be them that decide whether this year is a Red Wave of a standard off-year election. And the way things have been going, I wouldn't put money on Fetterman.
 
So yesterday's poll had Pennsylvania Republicans still behind but within close striking distance, now we're in Nevada where the Democrats can't even say that much.

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and the Capitol Resource Institute finds that, if the Senate election were held now, 48% of Nevada Likely Voters would vote for Republican former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, while 43% would vote to reelect Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto. In the gubernatorial election, 47% would vote for the Republican challenger, Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, while 42% would vote to reelect Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak. In the Senate race, 80% of Republicans would vote for Laxalt and 81% of Democrats would vote for Cortez Masto, while among voters not affiliated with either major party, Laxalt has an 18-point advantage, 48% to 30%, over Cortez Masto. Similarly, in the gubernatorial contest, 77% of Republicans would vote for Lombardo and 76% of Democrats would vote for Sisolak, while Lombardo leads by 48%-31% among unaffiliated voters.
 
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 62% of Likely U.S. Voters say it’s important that Republicans win at least one of the chambers of Congress in the upcoming elections, with 48% who say it's Very Important to their vote. Significantly fewer voters (48%) think it's important for Democrats to remain in control of the entire Congress, including 36% who feel it's Very Important. Four years ago, Democrats held a slight edge on this question, which proved to be more predictive of the 2018 midterm results than the generic ballot question. Now, 34% say a Republican takeover of at least one congressional chamber is not important to their vote in the upcoming election, including 23% who say it’s Not At All Important. Forty-nine percent (49%) say Democrats retaining control of Congress is not important to their vote, with 35% who rate it Not At All Important.
 
A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and “The Absolute Truth” with Emerald Robinson finds that, if the Senate election were held today, 48% of Georgia Likely Voters would vote for the Republican, Herschel Walker, while 43% would vote to reelect the Democrat, Sen. Raphael Warnock. Four percent (4%) say they’d vote for some other candidate, while another four percent (4%) are undecided. Walker’s lead is mainly due to his 14-point margin among independent voters. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Georgia Republican voters would vote for Walker and 81% of Democrats would vote for Warnock, while among voters not affiliated with either major party, Walker leads 49% to 35%. In Georgia’s gubernatorial election, 51% of Likely Voters would reelect Republican Gov. Brian Kemp while 41% would vote for the Democratic challenger, former state Rep. Stacey Abrams. Kemp gets stronger support from GOP voters, while also winning independents by a 17-point margin. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Republicans would vote for Kemp and 81% of Democrats would vote for Abrams, while among unaffiliated voters, Kemp leads 49%-32%.

The Walker-Warnock race is close enough that if the Undecideds break heavily for Walker he'll get enough votes to avoid a run-off--especially if some of the 4% saying they'll vote for another candidate decide to vote for him, after all (as usually happens).
 
And no surprise considering the other polls coming out, we once again swing back toward the Republicans. One more generic Congress poll before the election!

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 49% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 42% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another five percent (5%) are not sure. The GOP lead has increased three points from last week, when they led 47% to 43%. Republicans have led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year, although their lead has narrowed since mid-July, when they led by as much as 10 points.
 
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 26% of Likely U.S. Voters say inflation is the most important issue in how they vote in this year’s congressional elections, while another 22% name the economy as the top issue. These are followed by abortion rights (19%), illegal immigration (8%), climate change (8%) and violent crime (7%). Only two percent (2%) of voters name either the war in Ukraine or LGBTQ rights as the most important issue for them in the midterm election. The survey reveals that the priorities of independent voters are more closely aligned with Republicans than Democrats. A majority (62%) of Republican voters name either inflation (33%) or the economy (29%) as their top issues, but only 33% of Democrats say inflation (18%) or the economy (15%) are the most important issues affecting their vote. Thirty-one percent (31%) of Democratic voters say abortion rights is the top issue in the midterms. Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters not affiliated with either major party say either inflation (27%) or the economy (22%) is the top issue in their congressional vote, followed by abortion rights (18%).

So 63% of Likely Voter rank as the most important issues those that favor Republicans, and only 29% rank issues that favor Democrats. Hmmm.... :unsure:
 
And for the last Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot survey before the election:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 43% would vote for the Democrat. Just three percent (3%) would vote for some other candidate, but another six percent (6%) are not sure. The GOP lead has decreased two points from last week, when they led 49% to 42%. Republicans have led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year, although their lead has narrowed since mid-July, when they led by as much as 10 points.
 
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 85% of Likely U.S. voters say they will definitely vote in the upcoming midterm election, while another 11% say they’ll probably vote. Slightly more Republicans say they will either definitely (85%) or probably vote (13%), compared to Democrats, 84% of whom will definitely vote and 11% will probably vote. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 85% say they’ll definitely vote and 10% will probably vote. Many states now have early voting, and 42% say they’ve already voted, with 56% have not. More Democrats (47%) than Republicans (41%) or unaffiliated voters (37%) have voted early already.

I rather like early voting, as long as it isn't too early. My state has it, and I voted nine days ago at a local mall.
 
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 38% of Likely U.S. voters say that if a candidate was endorsed by Obama, that would make them more likely to vote for that candidate. Forty percent (40%) say Obama’s endorsement would make them less likely to vote for a candidate, while 21% said it would not make much difference. Obama’s continued popularity may explain why Democrats have been sending him, instead of President Joe Biden, to campaign for candidates in the most crucial “swing states” in this midterm election year. Only 28% of voters say an endorsement from Biden would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, while 46% say a Biden endorsement would make them less like to vote for a candidate. Twenty-four percent say Biden’s endorsement wouldn’t make much difference in their vote. Former President Donald Trump’s endorsement is also more valuable than Biden’s. Thirty-five percent (35%) of voters say an endorsement by Trump would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, while 40% say they’d be less likely to vote for a Trump-endorsed candidate and 24% say Trump’s endorsement wouldn’t make much difference.
 
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 65% of Likely U.S. voters agree that many states take too long to count the votes and report results on Election Night, including 37% who Strongly Agree. Just 28% disagree, with 13% who Strongly Disagree. Several key races across the country remained undecided, with the majority in both the U.S. House and Senate at stake. Forty-five percent (45%) of voters say when states take a long time to report election results, it makes them less confident that the election is fair. Just 25% say late results make them more confident that the election is fair, while 27% say delayed results don’t make much difference in their confidence. Fifty-nine percent (59%) believe election laws should be reformed to require states to report election results in a more timely manner, with just 25% to such reforms. Another 16% are not sure.

I tend to agree with those that feel that taking a long time to report election results makes it easier to lose confidence in the fairness of the election, and that Congress should require states to improve their processes. I don't really see why it has to take so long--Florida isn't exactly a small state, and it took them how long to total up the votes and announce the winners? A few hours?
 
And for the last Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot survey before the election:

House votes favored Republicans by 6.3% according to Cook Political Report
Adjusting for wasted votes, that's 53.2% of the popular vote.

Splitting the undecided seats half and half, Republicans can expect 226 or 227 in the House. That's 52.0%

This is interesting because it suggests Republicans camping out so far to the Trumpist right disadvantages them even more than gerrymandering advantages them. The difference between vote and representation amounts to 5 House seats.

Neither the popular vote nor the House result are known for sure, at this time. I will update.
 
Small update to the above:

US House:
Dems 44,865,330 and 197 House seats.
Reps 50,700,983 and 211 House seats.

Splitting the undecided seats (27) half and half, and discarding wasted votes, gives:

Dems 46.9% of vote, and 48.4% of seats won
Reps 53.1% of vote, and 51.6% of seats won

Caveats:
  1. The traditionally slow California count will raise the Dem vote without winning more seats.
  2. Some seats were not contested, and as is traditional, it was mostly Republicans who ran unopposed. (19 to 12)
  3. Republican states attempting a gerrymander may have thought the point is to provide safe seats for their chosen candidates, rather than maximizing seats won, and have gerrymandered against themselves.
  4. There was a Democratic gerrymander in Illinois, but no others I know of.
 
There was a Democratic gerrymander in Illinois, but no others I know of.
In California in 2020 Trump got 34% of the vote, which would have translated into 18 of California's 53 House seats. Republicans actually won 11. I can't imagine California's seats are less gerrymandered now, but we'll see in a couple years.
 
In California in 2020 Trump got 34% of the vote, which would have translated into 18 of California's 53 House seats. Republicans actually won 11. I can't imagine California's seats are less gerrymandered now, but we'll see in a couple years.

I think if you look at other states, you will see that popular vote is ALWAYS magnified in the House. The more blue or red a state is, the less "fair" representation is to the minority of voters. It doesn't prove there was gerrymandering.

In fact, deliberate gerrymandering might be the answer to that problem. If you do consider it a problem: it does balance out across the states, so representation reflects the popular vote quite well, where it matters, which is in the House.

I know that is extreme, but really what you're asking for is that the states should have proportional representation. And it's very hard to simulate that while still using 'single member constituencies' the way the House does.
 
I think if you look at other states, you will see that popular vote is ALWAYS magnified in the House. The more blue or red a state is, the less "fair" representation is to the minority of voters. It doesn't prove there was gerrymandering.
Of course, the more Red or Blue a state is the less fair the representation is to the minority, that's because the larger the majority the more likely it is that the majority will have a lock on the government and so be able to gerrymander! And after all, it is precisely that unfair imbalance that gerrymandering is supposed to create, so what other evidence outside of that imbalance is there supposed to be?
 
Of course, the more Red or Blue a state is the less fair the representation is to the minority, that's because the larger the majority the more likely it is that the majority will have a lock on the government and so be able to gerrymander! And after all, it is precisely that unfair imbalance that gerrymandering is supposed to create, so what other evidence outside of that imbalance is there supposed to be?

Take Illinois 2020 for example. That was on the old maps (based on 2010 Census).

Average winning vote for Democrat candidates was 67.0%
Average winning vote for Republican candidates was 64.7%

This is barely gerrymandered at all, and if it is, it's in favor of the Republicans.

Yet with 58.1% of the popular vote (distributed to the two parties), Democrats won 13 of the 18 districts. That's 72.2%

I chose Illinois btw, because it has enough districts for the result to be statistically significant, but not too much to make calculations a bore, and also none of the races that year were uncontested.
 
@Ug make hammer, I'd say that winning 72% of the House seats with 58% of the vote in an election this close to the census is clear evidence of Illinois' gerrymandering, thanks for providing it.

Note that point of it being this close to the census, because one of the biggest problems for gerrymanderers is that both populations and attitudes can change over the years.
 
@Ug make hammer, I'd say that winning 72% of the House seats with 58% of the vote in an election this close to the census is clear evidence of Illinois' gerrymandering, thanks for providing it.

IE you skipped the math and went with your own prejudice. Should I repeat the process for a Republicans state?

Note that point of it being this close to the census, because one of the biggest problems for gerrymanderers is that both populations and attitudes can change over the years.

2020 was the year of the Census yes, but redistricting happens between the Census and the next election. It's this year that the districts are fresh, not 2020.

You're right about population and attitude change though. Gerrymanders "wear off" somewhat during the decade after redistricting.
 
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