What a difference time makes

[danarhea]

In January, I saw the Democrats taking 62 seats in the Senate. In March, I saw them with 58. In June, I saw them with 55. And today, I see them with 52. Guess what? There are still 2 months to go. Can Republicans actually take the Senate, something that was thought of as impossible less than a year ago? Based on my own observations, I now believe that they have an outside chance.

Right now, my prediction is that Democrats will come home and vote their party this November, but the key here is Independents, which the Dems are losing badly.

My pick today? Democrats 52, Republicans 48.

My pick election day? Who knows? I will post my pick election eve.

What kind of a message is this going to send to Washington?

Discussion?

 

[Slartibartfast]

538 has the same prediction. 52/47/1

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

 

[Renae]

I've been saying the House and Senate will fall to the GOP.

Which is both good and bad. Good in that maybe we can stop Obama and Co's reckless policies. Bad in that the Media and the WH will spend the next two YEARS fighting with the GOP and claim they couldn't get anything done because the GOP refuses to work with them.

That worked for Clinton in '96, I'm not so sure it will for Obama in '12, not this time around.

 

[Dav]

Well, historically, whenever the House has flipped parties, so has the Senate. And I do think that the House will probably flip. But this year might be an exception, since the GOP has a few things going against it in the Senate: the large number of seats they'd have to pick up (10), the fact that the last cycle for this group of Senators (2004) was a good year for the GOP, the always present fact that only 1/3 of the Senate is elected at a time.

But, also historically, the vast majority of "toss-up" seats have gone to one party in an election, and this time, that'll probably be the GOP. They have to hold on to all of their current seats, and also lose a maximum of one tossup/Dem-tilting seat, but that's not as impossible as it sounds. There's also a few long-shot pickup chances like West Virginia and Connecticut.

Overall, I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP took over the Senate as well as the House. But I also wouldn't be surprised if they didn't. I also don't find it unlikely that we'll have a 50/50 split (in which case, the Democrats will still technically have control, thanks to Joe Biden). It'll be interesting to see what ends up happening.

 

[Deuce]

I've revised my call to 53 blue seats in the senate, house still seems like it could go either way but if I were giving a spread I'd say GOP +5.5

We should definitely do an official election-eve "called it" thread when the time comes.

 

[Renae]

I've revised my call to 53 blue seats in the senate, house still seems like it could go either way but if I were giving a spread I'd say GOP +5.5

We should definitely do an official election-eve "called it" thread when the time comes.

+5.5? Seriously? I want a Called it Thread to go down.

 

[Scarecrow Akhbar]

Right now, my prediction is that Democrats will come home and vote their party this November, but the key here is Independents, which the Dems are losing badly.

The real question is that when the Democrats go home and vote just how many times they're going to do that.

 

[Cold Highway]

My pick for election day is this;

We're still ****ed.