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Roger Simon: Welcome to the Meat Grinder!
This is the year of the fragile front-runner.
Not long ago, it appeared as if Hillary Clinton and John McCain were going to be the prohibitive favorites to win the nominations of their parties.
Not anymore.
In fact, take a look at the whole Democratic top tier:
Hillary Clinton not only faces the problem of refusing to admit her Iraq vote was a mistake, but she is also burdened by the image -- unfair or not -- of being a polarizing figure.
Barack Obama has served only two years in the Senate and is burdened by the image -- unfair or not -- of being a blank slate.
John Edwards says he might raise taxes and is burdened by the image -- unfair or not -- of being a lightweight.
Think it's better to be the front-runner of the Republicans? Here is their top tier:
John McCain not only wears the Iraq war around his neck like an albatross but also seems so gloomy these days that his new campaign theme may be "Mourning in America."
Mitt Romney has no foreign policy or national defense experience and didn't decide he was opposed to abortion until he was 57 years old, about the time he decided to run for the Republican nomination.
Rudy Giuliani is pro-choice, pro-gay rights and pro-gun control in a party known for its hostility to all those positions.
And get this: A USA Today poll released Wednesday shows that 24 percent of Americans would not vote for a Mormon (Romney), 30 percent would not vote for someone who has been married three times (Giuliani) and more than 40 percent would not vote for a "generally well-qualified person" for president who was 72 years old (McCain's age by Election Day 2008).
Welcome to the meat grinder, fellas!
Yes, you are going to see all kinds of polls telling you this candidate or that candidate is way ahead. But those polls are measuring just name recognition at this point.
One poll result fascinates me, however. Even though most analysts would tell you that McCain is the current, though fragile, front-runner in the Republican Party, recent polls indicate that Giuliani has that distinction.
The reason, I believe, is that most Republicans don't really know Giuliani's views on social issues; they just know him as the brave and stalwart mayor of New York on Sept. 11, 2001.
Why don't they know Giuliani's views, considering it is so important to McCain and Romney to knock him off?
Dan Schnur, McCain's communications director in 2000, has a theory.
"There has not been a sustained conversation about Giuliani's views on social and cultural issues because there isn't a candidate who profits from raising it," Schnur said. "Who benefits from tearing up Giuliani for his stance on gay marriage and abortion? Romney doesn't, because Giuliani pulls votes away from McCain. And McCain doesn't want to tear up Giuliani, because with Giuliani gone, then McCain would be most moderate person in the Republican race."
Which is about the niftiest explanation I have ever heard.
>snip<
link
I tend to agree with a lot of this; the Southern Baptist Convention, in particular, is extremely hostile toward Mormons, and has, within the past two years, referred- officially and publicly, as a policy position- to Mormonism as a "cult". The Southern Baptist Convention, further, refuses to recognize Mormonism as a branch of Christianity.
Without the support of the Southern Baptists, no socially-conservative Republican candidate has a chance.
If Romney truly cared about right-wing social issues, he'd quit now and let McCain or some other, more conventional champion for the conservative cause (ie, one who will not induce values-voters to stay home on election day, cowering in disgust at the prospect of electing a cult member to the highest office in the land, while moderates and Democrats vote Hilary into the White House by a landslide) have a shot instead.
This is the year of the fragile front-runner.
Not long ago, it appeared as if Hillary Clinton and John McCain were going to be the prohibitive favorites to win the nominations of their parties.
Not anymore.
In fact, take a look at the whole Democratic top tier:
Hillary Clinton not only faces the problem of refusing to admit her Iraq vote was a mistake, but she is also burdened by the image -- unfair or not -- of being a polarizing figure.
Barack Obama has served only two years in the Senate and is burdened by the image -- unfair or not -- of being a blank slate.
John Edwards says he might raise taxes and is burdened by the image -- unfair or not -- of being a lightweight.
Think it's better to be the front-runner of the Republicans? Here is their top tier:
John McCain not only wears the Iraq war around his neck like an albatross but also seems so gloomy these days that his new campaign theme may be "Mourning in America."
Mitt Romney has no foreign policy or national defense experience and didn't decide he was opposed to abortion until he was 57 years old, about the time he decided to run for the Republican nomination.
Rudy Giuliani is pro-choice, pro-gay rights and pro-gun control in a party known for its hostility to all those positions.
And get this: A USA Today poll released Wednesday shows that 24 percent of Americans would not vote for a Mormon (Romney), 30 percent would not vote for someone who has been married three times (Giuliani) and more than 40 percent would not vote for a "generally well-qualified person" for president who was 72 years old (McCain's age by Election Day 2008).
Welcome to the meat grinder, fellas!
Yes, you are going to see all kinds of polls telling you this candidate or that candidate is way ahead. But those polls are measuring just name recognition at this point.
One poll result fascinates me, however. Even though most analysts would tell you that McCain is the current, though fragile, front-runner in the Republican Party, recent polls indicate that Giuliani has that distinction.
The reason, I believe, is that most Republicans don't really know Giuliani's views on social issues; they just know him as the brave and stalwart mayor of New York on Sept. 11, 2001.
Why don't they know Giuliani's views, considering it is so important to McCain and Romney to knock him off?
Dan Schnur, McCain's communications director in 2000, has a theory.
"There has not been a sustained conversation about Giuliani's views on social and cultural issues because there isn't a candidate who profits from raising it," Schnur said. "Who benefits from tearing up Giuliani for his stance on gay marriage and abortion? Romney doesn't, because Giuliani pulls votes away from McCain. And McCain doesn't want to tear up Giuliani, because with Giuliani gone, then McCain would be most moderate person in the Republican race."
Which is about the niftiest explanation I have ever heard.
>snip<
link
I tend to agree with a lot of this; the Southern Baptist Convention, in particular, is extremely hostile toward Mormons, and has, within the past two years, referred- officially and publicly, as a policy position- to Mormonism as a "cult". The Southern Baptist Convention, further, refuses to recognize Mormonism as a branch of Christianity.
Without the support of the Southern Baptists, no socially-conservative Republican candidate has a chance.
If Romney truly cared about right-wing social issues, he'd quit now and let McCain or some other, more conventional champion for the conservative cause (ie, one who will not induce values-voters to stay home on election day, cowering in disgust at the prospect of electing a cult member to the highest office in the land, while moderates and Democrats vote Hilary into the White House by a landslide) have a shot instead.