3. What's next?
Trump is an extremely weak position. Today’s turn of events only confirms what lawmakers have long suspected. As political scientist Matt Glassman argues, Trump repeatedly backs down from his public positions. Building on Richard Neustadt’s classic work on presidential power, that’s a problem for the president going forward. The players expect that, with enough pressure, the president will again back down. What’s more, the president has already waved the white flag on funding a wall. Trump today threatened that if Congress won’t pony up $5 billion for a wall, he’ll declare a national emergency and try to build the wall without legislative authority. Many expect such a move to wind up in the courts or be delayed by foot-dragging as the military or Army Corps of Engineers looks for funds they can divert for a wall. Because few expect that ploy to work, lawmakers have little incentive to find ways to meet the president’s demand. Finally, eyes will be on the House and Senate lawmakers assigned to negotiate a deal. But stay focused on Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). In polarized times, nothing big gets done without support of the party chiefs. Trump will always be a wild card, but neither political party wants to see the government shut down again, and Republicans, especially, are unlikely to want to shoulder such blame all over again.