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[W:#7426]How will Brexit go?***W:46]***

How will Brexit go?

  • The EU will continue to grow but will change to address the feelings that drove Brexit.

    Votes: 13 11.4%

  • The EU will continue to grow but will not address the feelings that drove Brexit

    Votes: 16 14.0%

  • The EU will see more countries pulling out after we leave.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • The UK will break up as a consequence of Brexit.

    Votes: 26 22.8%

  • The UK will still hold after all is done and dusted.

    Votes: 20 17.5%

  • There’ll be a second Brexit related referendum. (Independence / Brexit etc)

    Votes: 22 19.3%

  • We’ll end up with soft Brexit and end up staying within EFTA.

    Votes: 18 15.8%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit, a disaster ending with WTO rules.

    Votes: 29 25.4%

  • We'll have a Hard Brexit which will be a success, even under WTO rules

    Votes: 18 15.8%
  • Total voters
    114
Anyone who hasn't yet realized that this whole screw-up has by now nothing at all to do with the good of the nation (i.e. the people) anymore has clearly been amiss in both following general reporting and this thread in particular.

And would perhaps be best advised not to comment any further.

That this whole affair is not going to the people any more has nothing to do with respecting the will of same (as per the referendum), it's all about the otherwise disparate representatives of the political class juggling for own positions.

And by "going to the people" I mean their having the opportunity to vote yes or no on May's deal, not a rerun of the remain/leave shambles.

Corby won't do it cuz he'd pass up a perfect opportunity for sticking it to both the May camp and its Tory enemies (IOW force elections which he hopes to win), May won't do it because she knows she'd be playing into the hands of her party foes (by copping out), her party enemies won't do it because her deal might win and the DUP stands to lose either which way, causing them to vote down anything that might change their current status quo, precarious as that is already.

All signs point to May's deal not making it thru the Commons anyway, simply because nobody outside her group of loyals can afford to support it.

With the whole bloody lot mindlessly parroting each other over how they're respecting the people's will, whatever that might be by now not something that anyone wants to find out.

Roll on March and let's be done.
 
It's an interesting excursion into history but in this current brouhaha about as significant as returning Ulster to the Irish Republic.

And BTW, the language of Gib, where officially declared as being English, is in reality Llanito.

Beyond which I've never seen it as being either particularly Spanish or particularly English. Although it does remind of Aldershot (Military Town), just with higher temperatures due to more sunshine.
 
Westphalian said:
I'm not enthused by May's deal, but I accept that the only way the UK can continue as a united entity, and without tearing itself apart, is by compromise.
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You may, unfortunately the DUP and compromise are not words that get used together much all the way from 'Ulster says No' to the present absence of government in NI - and they are "not a happy bunch". https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46269685

Westphalian said:
May's deal is an elaborate compromise which is not a great outcome for either die hard Remainers or Leavers, but at least it implements the democratic imperative of the referendum verdict.
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The problem is that the Brexit idea sold in the referendum was a much 'softer' version than was put forward in the subsequent Conservative general election manifesto (irl on the news I just heard Sammy Wilson of the DUP refer to the government delivering the Brexit 'it promised in its manifesto'). If the 'democratic imperative' (a debatable enough concept in itself) was for the birthday pig, what we're actually presented with is a wild boar with rabies.


If the 'wrong' verdict is returned again, then so be it. Well, until the 2022 or sooner general election manifestos anyway ;-)



Strictly speaking, it would be the third referendum on the issue. And since whole classes of millions of people have had their views etc.ed from the political system for centuries (women e.g.) uh, so it goes.



Brexit in itself might not be a 'silly mistake'. But it can't all be down to coincidence that it's found itself surrounded by some many of them, starting with David Cameron's decision to call the referendum when he did on the assumption it could not be lost. Then we have Theresa May's silly mistake in calling the general election when she did. Then we have the Tories' failure to drag her out of No. 10 immediately after she parlayed a working majority into a patently dysfunctional minority. Meantime we had another May silly mistake, that of assuming the DUP would be as compliant and complicit a political partner as the LibDems were in 2010. Boris Johnson's plan to build a bridge to Ireland. Dominic Raab clueless about how much trade goes through Dover. Anything Liam Fox or Jacob Rees-Mogg says. There are so many silly mistakes that have gone into the Great British Epic Fail.
 
Chagos said:
course they are.

Comparing apples and oranges or, as practically all of my Spanish neighbours would say "hidalgos y moros" (gentlemen and wogs):lol:
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Next time feel free to point out that all those hidalgos will actually be half-moros!

Brexit wise, the Spanish phrase that comes to mind is 'feo como un feto malayo' (ugly as a Malaysian foetus)
 
Sven Karma said:
Next time feel free to point out that all those hidalgos will actually be half-moros!

Brexit wise, the Spanish phrase that comes to mind is 'feo como un feto malayo' (ugly as a Malaysian foetus)
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WRONG!!!!!!!It is worse than that,more like a PIGS BREAKFAST


ps why would the Spanish have such a term re Malaysia????? Non-Compis_Mentishttps://www.debatepolitics.com/images/smilies/icon_peace.gif
 
Chagos said:
It's an interesting excursion into history but in this current brouhaha about as significant as returning Ulster to the Irish Republic.
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Disagree fully. History is the foundation for the problems today. It is the reason in part that the British police defend criminals fleeing the Spanish police. It is the reason that the RAF (when they were on Gib) had to fly in a tight circle around the Rock, because Spain was denying them fly over rights to NATO training airspace in the Med. And so on and so on

And BTW, the language of Gib, where officially declared as being English, is in reality Llanito.
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Ya, point is that Gib is more Spanish than British
 
PeteEU said:
Of course he is "adjusting"
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No, you're making up what isn't happening. His admission was near the start of his appointment as Brexit Secretary.

PeteEU said:
~ is hardly "overwhelmingly" ~
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My bad choice of words - when you look at the number of regions in Wales and N.Ireland that is what I meant.

PeteEU said:
~ Cause you know... stuff!
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:2razz:

PeteEU said:
~You see it in the expats here in Spain often.. the pensioners especially. Rule Britannia and all that jazz... great for chest thumping, but does not have much with reality anymore and has not been for decades...
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Always had my suspicions about Chagos and Andalublue. More seriously, I think you misread the politicians here like Mogg who are pro Hard Brexit. For many on he right wing of the Conservative party is is about sweatshop Britain where labour is cheap to compete with Malaysia and China etc. Mogg made his millions as a trader in Hong Kong. That's what he wants the UK to be like. My suspicion is there is no health service or much of a social network in places these guys admire and want to emulate.

PeteEU said:
~ live in the dreamworld, where the UK is still a relevant world power ~
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Honestly, no not in this instance.

PeteEU said:
~Now would Corbyn and Labour do a better job than May and the Tories.. ~
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If you go way back to the referendum when Andy was explaining his decision and why he toyed with supporting "Leave" you'll understand what I meant. I'm not accusing Andy of anything - but he gave his views from the socialist perspective.
 
Seems to me that the Gibraltar issue is actually a smokescreen for the real issue.. fishing rights.

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Can't really see Spain degrading an issue that has always been, is today and always will be a point of national pride, into a bargaining chip for some other item of contention.

Seeing how, wrt fishery rights, it can already allow for allies in Portugal and France as well as other (smaller) EU fishing nations.
 

Only "national pride" is with the British. Never met a local who actually cares about Gib.. only the Brits seem to do.
 
PeteEU said:
Only "national pride" is with the British. Never met a local who actually cares about Gib.. only the Brits seem to do.
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Maybe you need to get out more.

I don't know many Spaniards hereabouts either that think much about Gib on a daily basis without being provoked, but raise it and the offered take is unanimous. However, the further they live away, the more indignant they're likely to get. That I'll certainly grant.

Those in La Linea might utter the occasional gripe but are quite satisfied working the current status quo.

As to the Brits being prone to enter any greater jingoism over it, the fact that more prefer to go to the Costa del Sol for holidays than to Gib tells its own story.

There are times in summer when I wish more of them would just go to The Rock and stay the hell away from here.:mrgreen:
 
Well, looks like Spain is still maintaining its idea of trying to oust (British) sovereignty of Gibraltar (threat of vetoing the withdrawal agreement as yet not withdrawn).

But that won't stop the withdrawal agreement going thru where the EU side is concerned, seeing how "only" a qualified majority of 20 of the 27 member states is required.

But that's just that one side, the other side being Westminster in days to come.
 
Domestically Sanchez has nothing to lose by playing hardball, and in this case the ball is very much on the UK roof. He doesn't have to be much smarter than Rajoy to take note of how the Walloons threw a big wrench into the Canada agreement and stay out in Havana doubtless concluding business deals May, uh, isn't.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-b...ays-way-to-brussels-brexit-deal-idUKKCN1NS2DY

There's a stretch of Portugal/Spain boundary along the river Guadiana that centuries later is only a de facto border because the issue has never been legally resolved. Quite how the Brits and the Brussellites thought Spain would just roll over on this ...

Irrespective of 'sovereignty' it's a fact that places like Ceuta, or Réunion with France, or Madeira with Portugal have a clearly defined jurisdictional presence and parliamentary representation. British colonial bits'n'bobs are just a disaster waiting to happen if, as we are, planning to unpick a deal.
 
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I think it is a non issue and that Spain and others are just venting because they know ultimately it will be the UK that will screw up any deal.

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Well Gib crisis over... over to the UK parliament to screw over the deal.

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PeteEU said:
Well Gib crisis over... over to the UK parliament to screw over the deal.
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Firstly I think Spain will want to extract what they can - this is the last best hope beyond a sudden request by the citizens of the Rock to become Spanish. Secondly not Parliament's fault - what May has produced with the EU is the best that could be hoped for but it's still a pile of steaming dung as a deal.
 
Of course it will be Parliaments fault if and when they vote down the deal. It might be a piece of dung but it is the best there can be before the deadline.

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Did you ever expect more to be achieved?
 
After the DUP another orange one weighs in: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46352463

"Donald Trump has suggested Theresa May's Brexit agreement could threaten a US-UK trade deal.

The US president did not specify which aspect of the deal concerned him but told reporters the withdrawal agreement "sounds like a great deal for the EU".

No 10 insisted the deal is "very clear" the UK would have an independent trade policy so it can sign trade deals with countries around the world.

Mrs May fought off heavy criticism of her Brexit deal from MPs on Monday.

Insisting the agreement "delivered for the British people" by regaining control of laws, money and borders, she said it would be put to an MPs vote on 11 December.

Hours later, Mr Trump told reporters outside the White House: "We have to take a look seriously whether or not the UK is allowed to trade.

"Because right now if you look at the deal, they may not be able to trade with us. And that wouldn't be a good thing. I don't think they meant that.""
 

Of course he would say that... Because the UK is going to be linked to the common market, then she will have some protection from the EU which means the US would have to negotiate with the UK and EU for any trade deal. That means the US suddenly will be talking to an equal instead of a weak desperate UK and that is not good for the bully... err US.
 
PeteEU said:
Of course it will be Parliaments fault if and when they vote down the deal. It might be a piece of dung but it is the best there can be before the deadline.

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And who's fault is that. We entered negotiations with no idea of what (specifically) we were asking for... allowed 'Remainers' to run the whole show and then profess surprise when the opposition simply ran out the clock. If this is truly the best possible deal that faithful and robust negotiation could have achieved for the UK we'd better just fold our flag and happily be the vassal province of Brussels we're heading for.
 
Re: How will Brexit go?


I hope you are right. That we will leave the EU and all be better off because of it.

I do ask you to spare a thought for the fact... if we had not been lied to by a generation of politicians the British people would have had the chance to adapt and accept the true vision of Europe. Every time anyone here tried to point out the true aims of Europe wide integration (which was never a secret) they were shouted down. The 'myth' that we were simply part of a common market was peddled as politicians from all parties to keep us in and give them someone to blame for their incompetence. Now we are left with the worst of both worlds.
 
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