- Joined
- Apr 18, 2013
- Messages
- 83,047
- Reaction score
- 67,965
- Location
- Barsoom
- Gender
- Male
- Political Leaning
- Independent
Putin Doesn’t Want to Intervene in Belarus. That’s an Opportunity for the West.
It’s certainly not too soon for Moscow and Brussels to learn from past mistakes.
If Putin doesn't want another albatross around his neck, I think he would do well to initiate a conversation with the actual Belarus election winner Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya who is currently in neighboring Lithuania. For all practical purposes, Lukashenka is damaged goods and is finished politically. Ms. Tsikhanouskaya has stated that she considers herself only a temporary president of Belarus. Her primary job will be to release all political prisoners and protesters, and then prepare the country for a truly free and fair election. She has stated that her government will be friendly with Russia and with all countries. Perhaps Putin's best hope of salvaging Belarus politically is to front a candidate of his choosing in the next election. Someone that is strongly pro-Russia and yet is appealing to the Belarussian people on a national grassroots level. The popular husband of Ms. Tsikhanouskaya (currently in a Lukashenka jail cell) will certainly be a presidential candidate.
Related: Putin Has No Good Options As Belarus Crisis Surges
It’s certainly not too soon for Moscow and Brussels to learn from past mistakes.
8/16/20
Lukashenko may well succeed in suppressing these protests through demonstrative terror, but even if he wins this gamble, he will at best buy a couple of years of hollow, illegitimate rule before his administration finally implodes. These elections weren’t just rigged — all autocrats do that. The results appear to have been flipped in his favor to mask an irredeemable defeat. And the spectacular, punitive mass torture that his OMON forces instigated to cow not just protesters but ordinary people into submission wipes away the last traces of legitimate power in the eyes of the very people who once obeyed him. One does not just walk away from such abuses. But the prospect of Lukashenko’s demise poses a headache both for the Kremlin and for Minsk’s Western neighbors. Doing nothing feels uncomfortable, but doing something is rife with consequences. In the last decade, “constructive intervention” and even moral support to help send a dictator who has outstayed his welcome on his way have devolved into bloody proxy wars in Libya, Syria and Ukraine. Western and EU support of the Euromaidan protests to topple Viktor Yanukovich triggered a military intervention from Moscow and a war that simmers to this day.
This is not a likely scenario for Belarus, but there is some risk of escalation. Initially, Moscow was careful about overtly backing Lukashenko in word or deed. Russian media reported openly on police abuses, and prominent statesmen publicly called on Russia to abandon Lukashenko. But over the weekend, thanks to a request from Lukashenko, Moscow appears to have caved and promised, “if necessary,” to support its frenemy under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the collective defense pact for former Soviet countries. But Moscow’s pledge to support the regime also smacks of reluctance. Initially, words to the effect that Moscow would provide security came from Lukashenko, not from the Kremlin, whose initial statement, however conciliatory, mentioned nothing of aid or support. There are a lot of reasons for Moscow’s hesitation. The past year — and the last month in particular — have demonstrated that he is no longer a figure Moscow can trust. The truth is, neither Moscow nor Brussels are invested in Lukashenko, and neither want another Euromaidan. Successful EU-Russian cooperation is still a stretch. But some tentative cooperation on Belarus could be a start. It’s too late for Lukashenko. It’s certainly not too soon for Moscow and Brussels to learn from past mistakes.
If Putin doesn't want another albatross around his neck, I think he would do well to initiate a conversation with the actual Belarus election winner Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya who is currently in neighboring Lithuania. For all practical purposes, Lukashenka is damaged goods and is finished politically. Ms. Tsikhanouskaya has stated that she considers herself only a temporary president of Belarus. Her primary job will be to release all political prisoners and protesters, and then prepare the country for a truly free and fair election. She has stated that her government will be friendly with Russia and with all countries. Perhaps Putin's best hope of salvaging Belarus politically is to front a candidate of his choosing in the next election. Someone that is strongly pro-Russia and yet is appealing to the Belarussian people on a national grassroots level. The popular husband of Ms. Tsikhanouskaya (currently in a Lukashenka jail cell) will certainly be a presidential candidate.
Related: Putin Has No Good Options As Belarus Crisis Surges