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[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

JANFU

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I awoke this morning to the increasingly serious news that Belorussia is "mobilizing" under the euphemism of "testing military capabilities" - this maybe the reason that Americans are being urged to leave Russia immediately. Previously I discounted the concern because there was no upside for Belorussia. There still is not but it may be that Putin issued an ultimatum to Lukashenko to do it or be liquidated by FSB agents.
Dual nationals, Russian & whatever are subject to mobilization
 

maxparrish

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Here is why Lukashenko has been so reluctant to enter the war...

Two years ago here is clip of the 10s of thousands (uncountable really) protesting the sham elections, see the masses as the camera sweeps in both directions...

 

Schrott

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We'll show the world! We'll blow up our own pipe lines!

Actually to me it looks like Russia wanted to show the world what they can do to pipelines, but blew their own pipeline to not step over the line. Might blow the other country's pipelines if they are losing even worse than they are now and become desperate? Or not?
NS2 will never go online, it was a industrial ruin. NS1 was very questionable, becoming operational again, a probable industrial ruin. Germany has secured LNG contracts in Arabia.
If Putler throws nukes around, Russia will become a forever outcast in the world, which means it becomes a NK.
Russia has been a player because it had everybody convinced that it had this huge military power, fear-factor.
The nukes, fear-factor.
Blowing up those obsolete pipelines creates a fear-factor. In this case a double fear-factor, because if Russia opens the valves it create no go zones and a ecological disaster and it has demonstrated, that underwater infrastructure is very vulnerable.
All that is typical for Putlers playbook.

It is not an accident, that those explosions happened on the day Denmark and Poland announced, that their new pipeline is finished and open for business.
 

JANFU

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How hard is it to get a hold of that kind of bomb?
Not hard at all.
As I mentioned at the time, possible sabotage
Ship can easily lower an explosive package near the pipeline
4 leaks, outside national waters, Putin sending a message on how easy it is to disrupt energy supplies
 

JANFU

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If true, and they attack Ukraine, could result in a coup
Reports I have read, the vast majority of people do not support the war in Ukraine
 

Chomsky

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Ukraine could trap a number of Russian soldiers
View attachment 67415445

View attachment 67415444


I've seen reports that UKR is doing an end-run-around-the-sides-and-behind of Izium because RU heavily fortified the E point of contact. Some sources posit RU may cut & run directly E as the Izium defense collapses.

I sure hope this is the case, as the current action is really becoming a long slow slog, and if this continues UKR is in for a very long haul - especially given Putin is throwing more warm bodies at it while instituting "not one step back".
 

PoS

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If true, and they attack Ukraine, could result in a coup
Reports I have read, the vast majority of people do not support the war in Ukraine

If Lukashenko is dumb enough to attack Ukraine directly, it will be the biggest mistake he's ever made. Belarus's army is small, like around 50K, their command and control is just like Russia's, and their equipment is in even worse shape. Also their generals are reluctant to fight.
 

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Those HIMARs are part of a 1.1B dollar package, only approved in the last day or two. They are not there yet and, if past behavior is repeated, they will arrive in "penny packets" of four units, every two or three weeks. And that is also unclear, because in the past the US military has only been training in batches to fit those packets.

So, it might take 10 to 12 weeks from now before all are shipped.

On the other hand, should the Pentagon believe that the surplus training provided to date (more were trained than needed) they might ship them much more rapidly, feeling Ukraine can now train their own.

The good news is that if there was a fear of a missile shortage, they wouldn't be doubling the number of HIMARS in battle.

Excellent point in the bolded.
 

Schrott

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Not hard at all.
As I mentioned at the time, possible sabotage
Ship can easily lower an explosive package near the pipeline
4 leaks, outside national waters, Putin sending a message on how easy it is to disrupt energy supplies
That would be very difficult to hide, coastal radar would detect a stationary ship at the pipeline location. The ship would have to use GPS for finding the pipeline.
200 to 300kg, or Spiegels 500kg, would be very hard to come by, by a none government actor. Besides the enormous cost of a ship, that could deliver and drop the bombs.
Russia has Navy SF in Kaliningrad, that are able to work from subs
 

EnigmaO01

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That would be very difficult to hide, coastal radar would detect a stationary ship at the pipeline location. The ship would have to use GPS for finding the pipeline.
200 to 300kg, or Spiegels 500kg, would be very hard to come by, by a none government actor. Besides the enormous cost of a ship, that could deliver and drop the bombs.
Russia has Navy SF in Kaliningrad, that are able to work from subs
I thought I read somewhere Russia can imbed robots inside the pipes for checking for damage etc. Could they have attached an explosive to a robot and remotely detonated?

I see the diameters of Nord stream 1 and 2 are both 1.153 meters. (3.78 feet)
 

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The explosions that damaged Nord Stream occurred next to other sensitive infrastructure – including the electricity cable between Sweden and Poland. Only about 500 meters from one of the explosion sites runs the Poland cable, officially called Swepol Link. A power line used to import and export electricity between Sweden and Poland.it is an important link to the rest of the EU . But the cable is currently switched off, which has been planned since before, and neither Swedish nor Polish authorities therefore know whether it has been damaged. The Swedish authority, together with its Polish counterpart, has called in specialists who will investigate any damage but we will not know until next week at earliest.

Also:The emissions of gas correspond to the emissions of the whole of Sweden during one year
 

JANFU

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That would be very difficult to hide, coastal radar would detect a stationary ship at the pipeline location. The ship would have to use GPS for finding the pipeline.
200 to 300kg, or Spiegels 500kg, would be very hard to come by, by a none government actor. Besides the enormous cost of a ship, that could deliver and drop the bombs.
Russia has Navy SF in Kaliningrad, that are able to work from subs
Made the comments about a ship, as some experts said it could be easily done.
Could it be a sub, certainly
Regardless it was a shot across the bow of energy supplies and how easily they can be interrupted
 

Juks

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Not hard at all.
As I mentioned at the time, possible sabotage
Ship can easily lower an explosive package near the pipeline
4 leaks, outside national waters, Putin sending a message on how easy it is to disrupt energy supplies
I still don't believe it was Russia. Sorry, I want to believe it as much as you al, but I can't. It makes absolutely no sense. Someone talked about that the pipelines were unserviceable due to corrosion anyway. But missed the fact that the corrosion is due to the explosions which will evidently make salty water to enter the pipes, that will render the whole of both pipelines irreversibly damaged. They can never be used again. If, in some future Russia wants to export gas to Germany, they will have to use the pipelines through Poland and/or the Baltic's or Ukraine. or put down new pipelines, from start to finish. .



There is a lot of economic and/or political winnings for those countries and only costs for Russia.

Well, unfortunately, I will probably never know. This will, unless it really was Russia, be classified for 50 years or so.
 

craig

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I still don't believe it was Russia. Sorry, I want to believe it as much as you al, but I can't. It makes absolutely no sense. Someone talked about that the pipelines were unserviceable due to corrosion anyway. But missed the fact that the corrosion is due to the explosions which will evidently make salty water to enter the pipes, that will render the whole of both pipelines irreversibly damaged. They can never be used again. If, in some future Russia wants to export gas to Germany, they will have to use the pipelines through Poland and/or the Baltic's or Ukraine. or put down new pipelines, from start to finish. .



There is a lot of economic and/or political winnings for those countries and only costs for Russia.

Well, unfortunately, I will probably never know. This will, unless it really was Russia, be classified for 50 years or so.
Putin thought he was more in danger of being overthrown if his successor could quickly reestablish energy transfers to Europe.
 

maxparrish

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Frankly I wouldn't be too concerned about how they did it, I'd be concerned about why they did it.

If you combine this with the other news, it's very disturbing.

a) Red Flag Operation...something to justify a major escalation in the war. Alone not enough to justify nukes, but enough to send a dark warning to the west that Russia is willing to hit targets in international or territorial waters that supply fuel, gas, communications, power, to Europe.

b) Annexation. I think it a forgone conclusion that by changing the narrative that the occupied parts of Ukraine are now belong to the Russian invaders, it will open up the claim that Ukraine is now threatening the existential existence of Russia. That, in turn, means it no longer matters what weapon Ukraine uses to continue the attack, it's subject to a nuclear attack... which is now more likely than not if Russian's mobilization fails to stop Ukraine's gains.

c) Belorussia. This is more curious. If Putin believes it will be joining the war in the time period specified (Nov to Feb) then one would assume that a nuke attack would not occur until their effect is evaluated. On the other hand, he may believe Lukashenko won't have the guts and therefore Putin may not include Belorussia in his nuclear calculations.

d) Putin hopes the cheerleading over Russia gaining new territory will soften the backlash against mobilization, generate new support for his invasions, and it may also serve as a prologue to martial law "to protect Russia's liberation".
 

maxparrish

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I still don't believe it was Russia. Sorry, I want to believe it as much as you al, but I can't. It makes absolutely no sense. Someone talked about that the pipelines were unserviceable due to corrosion anyway. But missed the fact that the corrosion is due to the explosions which will evidently make salty water to enter the pipes, that will render the whole of both pipelines irreversibly damaged. They can never be used again. If, in some future Russia wants to export gas to Germany, they will have to use the pipelines through Poland and/or the Baltic's or Ukraine. or put down new pipelines, from start to finish. .



There is a lot of economic and/or political winnings for those countries and only costs for Russia.

Well, unfortunately, I will probably never know. This will, unless it really was Russia, be classified for 50 years or so.

Were it later shown that Russia did it, how would you reconcile your current belief that it couldn't have been? Might it be that what makes sense to Putin is far different than what you, as a westerner, thinks is sensible?

Regardless of what we think, it is very plausible that damaging two pipelines that arn't going to be used in the foreseeable future is worth it to send a serious warning to Europe about what Russia can and may do to protect its gains. It may be worth it to try and divide the allies.

Putin, like Hitler and Stalin had/have a very skewed view of their enemy ... they don't think like us so they do not always understand the actual impact.
 
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