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[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

Hamish Howl

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It will be a contentious issue in the EU's top 3, Germany, France & Italy and the rest as well
Some will see it as a Russian red line. It will be much more of an issue than sending tanks was
Not sure on numbers but a substantial number support giving Ukrainian lands away, negotiated peace Chamberlain style, and stupid enough to think Russia will not come back for more of Ukraine.

Time permitting I will check out EU polls on some issues
Pretty sure the very worst thing we could do right now is worry about Putin's "red lines".
 

W_Heisenberg

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German news reports that Germany is sending at least one company of the 2A6.
 

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The dumbest idea so far was Putin's idiotic decision to try and invade Ukraine.
Given that he has taken almost all of the ground he intended, it does not seem as idiotic as the US giving away 12-million-dollar tanks to a country that is entirely unable to use and support them. Remember when Russia launched a hypersonic missile against the ammo depot near the Polish border? That was a message to the west about arms deliveries. The west could not detect this missile at all. Russia is saving these missiles for important targets. Any M1 going over the Polish border will be targeted.
 

Hamish Howl

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Given that he has taken almost all of the ground he intended, it does not seem as idiotic as the US giving away 12-million-dollar tanks to a country that is entirely unable to use and support them. Remember when Russia launched a hypersonic missile against the ammo depot near the Polish border? That was a message to the west about arms deliveries. The west could not detect this missile at all. Russia is saving these missiles for important targets. Any M1 going over the Polish border will be targeted.
Nobody is scared of the Russians. Once the tanks arrive, the Russians will be shifted.
And we have 2500 spare M1s sitting around and doing nothing.
 

Yakshi

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Prior to the war I did not read anything aside from Ukraine split in half, fighting a guerrilla war. The experts were wrong, but Russian prep/planning was a huge gift for Ukraine
Lots of people wrong on this issue.
Nearing the 1 year mark who predicted that? No one

In February of 2022, before the war started, Illia Ponomarenko, perhaps the most-followed Ukrainian journalist, predicted something other than a quick defeat.

I continue to believe that even from the beginning western predictions and Ukrainian predictions about the outcome of this war differed greatly.


I also think that many Ukrainians believed that a russian attack simply would not happen.

Other trivia: in early February of 2022, Zelensky's approval ratings hovered somewhere around 20 percent. Now he's a national hero. That switch alone might be a bigger surprise to Ukrainians than Ukraine's impressive resistance to russia.
 
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Yakshi

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Imo, those who claimed that the west was pushing russia into China's arms overestimated, just as those who downplayed the breakup between Germany and russia underestimated.
 

Yakshi

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All in the future, 1st they have to get there

We've crossed putin's red lines numerous times already.

he claimed that Kherson would belong to russia "forever" and that any attack on russian territory would lead to a response that the world has never seen.
 

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In February of 2022, before the war started, Illia Ponomarenko, perhaps the most-followed Ukrainian journalist, predicted something other than a quick defeat.

I continue to believe that even from the beginning western predictions and Ukrainian predictions about the outcome of this war differed greatly.


I also think that many Ukrainians believed that a russian attack simply would not happen.

Other trivia: in early February of 2022, Zelensky's approval ratings hovered somewhere around 20 percent. Now he's a national hero. That switch alone might be a bigger surprise to Ukrainians than Ukraine's impressive resistance to russia.
I distinctly remember Zelenskyy initially not believing they would invade either. The U.S. had to convince him the build up was leading to an invasion.
 

Yakshi

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I distinctly remember Zelenskyy initially not believing they would invade either. The U.S. had to convince him the build up was leading to an invasion.

That's right. The year before the buildup preceding this invasion, there was a similar russian troop buildup on the eastern Ukrainian border, not far from Kharkiv. Nothing ever came of it.

I think that's part of the reason why Ukraine downplayed a similar buildup this time around. Ukraine definitely let its guard down.
 

Hamish Howl

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Yes maintenance and logistical nightmare for Ukraine. It is only going to hinder the Ukrainian army. I forget who said it. Maybe it was general Miley. The tank is innapropriate to give to Ukraine. That was the consensus. Suddenly it's a good idea? Another multi billion dollar waste of money.
If they're that much of a hindrance, they simply won't use them.

And what waste of money? All those tanks are in storage, doing nothing at all.
 

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The Ukrainian defence minister is facing accusations of paying double or triple ordinary prices for food for the troops. It is in the early stages, so it is unclear how that will shake out.


Of course, corruption has been ingrained in all of the post-Soviet countries for generations.

The question is how well--and how publicly--it gets rooted out.

They have some incentive to root it out right now, their survival depends on it.
 

Yakshi

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They have some incentive to root it out right now, their survival depends on it.

Of course. But it's a whole different world in some ex-Soviet republics. In positions of power, there is an expectation of corruption. As in, if you don't get your slice when you can, there's something wrong with you.

Part of the calculus is how many workers, like teachers, police, and so forth, simply aren't paid enough to live, as if the government itself implicity expects corruption as a salary boost.

Ukraine is clearly working on it, but there will be many speedbumps along the way.
 
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NWRatCon

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We've crossed putin's red lines numerous times already.

he claimed that Kherson would belong to russia "forever" and that any attack on russian territory would lead to a response that the world has never seen.
Well, we haven't seen the response, so that much was true...
 

NWRatCon

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That's right. The year before the buildup preceding this invasion, there was a similar russian troop buildup on the eastern Ukrainian border, not far from Kharkiv. Nothing ever came of it.

I think that's part of the reason why Ukraine downplayed a similar buildup this time around. Ukraine definitely let its guard down.
Here I disagree. Yes, they were saying that Russia wouldn't invade, because they were hoping Russia wouldn't invade and that by downplaying the prospect they might convince Putin not to invade. But I think they took the US warnings seriously and were prepared. That is why they were able to blunt the Russian attacks so thoroughly. Where did Russia succeed, really? They didn't take Kiyv, they got decimated in the north, they never even entered the west of Ukraine. They did take the southern coast, but they could not take Odesa. The only major city they took was Kherson.

Yes, they took a lot of territory, but they couldn't hold it, which is "success", and in the process destroyed the core of their elite forces. They never got air superiority. They never got sea control. What they managed was to destroy a lot of Ukrainian property, kill a lot of civilians, and lose a third of their equipment in short order.

I didn't see all of that happening, personally, but I am betting the Ukrainian command staff did. And they see a way for Putin's overreach to be an opportunity to take back the Donbas and Crimea. Things could still swing either way, but Putin has already lost.
 

Yakshi

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Here I disagree. Yes, they were saying that Russia wouldn't invade, because they were hoping Russia wouldn't invade and that by downplaying the prospect they might convince Putin not to invade. But I think they took the US warnings seriously and were prepared. That is why they were able to blunt the Russian attacks so thoroughly. Where did Russia succeed, really? They didn't take Kiyv, they got decimated in the north, they never even entered the west of Ukraine. They did take the southern coast, but they could not take Odesa. The only major city they took was Kherson.

Yes, they took a lot of territory, but they couldn't hold it, which is "success", and in the process destroyed the core of their elite forces. They never got air superiority. They never got sea control. What they managed was to destroy a lot of Ukrainian property, kill a lot of civilians, and lose a third of their equipment in short order.

I didn't see all of that happening, personally, but I am betting the Ukrainian command staff did. And they see a way for Putin's overreach to be an opportunity to take back the Donbas and Crimea. Things could still swing either way, but Putin has already lost.

Public perception was relaxed, even if government readiness was not.

Pre-war, Ukrainian news was definitely full of commentary about how the west was overreacting to the russian threat. But on the other hand, Ukraine demonstrated a surprisingly strong--to the west, at least--response.

Before the war, when the U.S. was outright stating that russia was going to invade, I had a couple acquaintances and former students basically remarking that or asking why America was overreacting.

But another reason for Zelensky's pre-war announcements were to avoid panic.
 

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In February of 2022, before the war started, Illia Ponomarenko, perhaps the most-followed Ukrainian journalist, predicted something other than a quick defeat.

I continue to believe that even from the beginning western predictions and Ukrainian predictions about the outcome of this war differed greatly.


I also think that many Ukrainians believed that a russian attack simply would not happen.

Other trivia: in early February of 2022, Zelensky's approval ratings hovered somewhere around 20 percent. Now he's a national hero. That switch alone might be a bigger surprise to Ukrainians than Ukraine's impressive resistance to russia.
Wow, surprise, surprise, a wartime president leading the defense of the homeland enjoys high approval ratings. There's a reason Zelensky's approval ratings were 20% before the war...because he's a corrupt pile of shit that's covering for his billionaire backer.
 
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