[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

[Jredbaron96]

OK well I am no sure what your actual position is. Sorry if that is not the case.

My actual opinion is that I gave up trying to predict how this war would go when my initial pre-war prediction was way off.

That does not mean they are going to bee line for Kiev.

The Russians will do what they did last time; threaten a feint in one area before attacking in another. They'll make use of the high profile deployments to Belarus to threaten Kiev, probably through fires and local incursions. The Ukrainians will be compelled to withdraw their reserves back west of the Dnieper, allowing the Russians to sneak their forces across through Donbass and smash the remaining Ukrainian forces near the separatist regions. With their forces in the ATO scattered and shattered Kiev will have no choice but to accept a Moscow-backed ceasefire like they did in 2015.

Ukraine will protest, but a Russian feint from Belarus will force the Ukrainians to withdraw their reserves west of the Dnieper to protect Kiev, allowing Russian forces to enter Donbas and dismantle the Ukrainian forces near the border.

This is a lesson a lot of people would benefit from.

 

[poweRob]

It's gone from thinking about it, to happening.

MSN

www.msn.com

​

The Biden administration has decided to provide M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, overriding previous concerns that the heavy battle tanks, the world’s most powerful, are too logistically burdensome for Kyiv’s forces, according to U.S. officials.​

 

[justoneman]

My actual opinion is that I gave up trying to predict how this war would go when my initial pre-war prediction was way off.

Haha. Join the club. I never thought any of this was going to happen.

 

[JANFU]

As you might have noticed in this thread, I have stayed rather neutral as possible. Tried to explain German politics concerning this war.
But it is obvious that you guys do not read it, or make no effort to understand it. It is the US way or the high way. I have that point out a few times, too.

I do not live in the twitter world, don't have account for any social media, I get my news from traditional European media, which I can read in 4 languages.

Before I open my stupid mouth I educate myself, which a lot of people do not do. They just love the trash talk they learned on social media.
I am not by any means an expert, but show me where I have been truly wrong, or just ran my mouth of.

My thought on this- Scholtz mishandled this from last fall when the request was made.
This issue has been booted around by the German Govt with conflicting statements by Ministers and confusion with Elected Officials slamming back & forth
And it all blew up in Scholtz's face

Germany wanted US tanks -they got that but what did they win?
Germany has been the 1 holding up the only common sense tank needed and available.
You know how the politicians were playing BS games on this.issue and how long they have been doing it
Germany lost stature/prestige/trust on this issue within NATO/EU etc
No sense in putting lipstick on a pig
How I see it
If there are positives for Germany from this, let me know

 

[JANFU]

My actual opinion is that I gave up trying to predict how this war would go when my initial pre-war prediction was way off.





This is a lesson a lot of people would benefit from.

Prior to the war I did not read anything aside from Ukraine split in half, fighting a guerrilla war. The experts were wrong, but Russian prep/planning was a huge gift for Ukraine
Lots of people wrong on this issue.
Nearing the 1 year mark who predicted that? No one

 

[JANFU]

It's gone from thinking about it, to happening.

MSN

www.msn.com

​

The Biden administration has decided to provide M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, overriding previous concerns that the heavy battle tanks, the world’s most powerful, are too logistically burdensome for Kyiv’s forces, according to U.S. officials.​

Not coming out of existing stocks is what I have read. Must mean new tanks off the production line??

 

[Minerva]

It kind of torques me off to say this but.....

If American supplied Abrams are what it takes to get Chancellor Scholz to grant approval for other nations to supply Leopards to Ukraine, then just do it. Make a firm commitment to Scholz that the requested tanks will be provided but he is to immediately allow the other nations permission to send their tanks.

Dang, even a blind hot finds a nut now and then.....

 

[justoneman]

Not coming out of existing stocks is what I have read. Must mean new tanks off the production line??

Are they going to build repair facilities too? You know these tanks have turbo jet engines and the engines have an extremely short life, like 3,000 miles. Then the tank must be transported to a facility to have a new engine installed. It takes 20 gallons of fuel to go one mile. It is the most complicated tank in existence. The crew takes many many months to train. This is the absolutely dumbest idea so far.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

Are they going to build repair facilities too? You know these tanks have turbo jet engines and the engines have an extremely short life, like 3,000 miles. Then the tank must be transported to a facility to have a new engine installed. It takes 20 gallons of fuel to go one mile. It is the most complicated tank in existence. The crew takes many many months to train. This is the absolutely dumbest idea so far.

The dumbest idea so far was Putin's idiotic decision to try and invade Ukraine.

 

[poweRob]

It's gone from thinking about it, to happening.

MSN

www.msn.com

​

The Biden administration has decided to provide M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, overriding previous concerns that the heavy battle tanks, the world’s most powerful, are too logistically burdensome for Kyiv’s forces, according to U.S. officials.​

 

[JANFU]

Are they going to build repair facilities too? You know these tanks have turbo jet engines and the engines have an extremely short life, like 3,000 miles. Then the tank must be transported to a facility to have a new engine installed. It takes 20 gallons of fuel to go one mile. It is the most complicated tank in existence. The crew takes many many months to train. This is the absolutely dumbest idea so far.

Me I think they will not be in Ukraine anytime soon.. They will be well equipped with substantial numbers of Leopards. Poland may want to replace their Leopards for the new German beast of a tank
And Germans know how to build.

Panther KF51 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[JANFU]

The dumbest idea so far was Putin's idiotic decision to try and invade Ukraine.

Did you ever think that in you lifetime you would see Russia fall twice. So many ethnic dominated Republics in the Russian Federation. Crazy times ahead

 

[Minerva]

Me I think they will not be in Ukraine anytime soon.. They will be well equipped with substantial numbers of Leopards. Poland may want to replace their Leopards for the new German beast of a tank
And Germans know how to build.

Panther KF51 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Wow! That thing is a beast. It has 50% greater effective gun range than the 120 mm cannon in the Abrams and Leopard.......

 

[Schrott]

My thought on this- Scholtz mishandled this from last fall when the request was made.
This issue has been booted around by the German Govt with conflicting statements by Ministers and confusion with Elected Officials slamming back & forth
And it all blew up in Scholtz's face

Germany wanted US tanks -they got that but what did they win?
Germany has been the 1 holding up the only common sense tank needed and available.
You know how the politicians were playing BS games on this.issue and how long they have been doing it
Germany lost stature/prestige/trust on this issue within NATO/EU etc
No sense in putting lipstick on a pig
How I see it
If there are positives for Germany from this, let me know

Even you do not get it. Which surprises me.
The german governmet is put together out of 3 parties, which cannot be as diverse as those parties are. Its not about Scholz, or Germany, it is about finding a consensus, a working platform for all 3 parties..
The Kanzler, for very good reasons is very limited in his powers. Biden can say I will do that with out Congress, the war powers act.
Scholz cannot do that. That, to many who are not familiar with German laws and politics, can make Germany and a Kanzler look rather bad.
There are many examples for that. Kohl or Merkel for example, we call them in Germany " die Aussetzer".
They just sat out and waited how things would develope and then make a decision. Its typical German politics. But then on other problems they put the hammer down.
This is typical German politics, its slow, cumbersome, irritating, but when done, it goes very fast and once done rather ruthles.
Just go back in history, German reunification. It took month for West Germany to make up its mind, how to do it, but once it has made up its mind it droped the hammer. Its not a single party government. As I explained so many times German politics and the laws are very difficult.

 

[Minerva]

Even you do not get it. Which surprises me.
The german governmet is put together out of 3 parties, which cannot be as diverse as those parties are. Its not about Scholz, or Germany, it is about finding a consensus, a working platform for all 3 parties..
The Kanzler, for very good reasons is very limited in his powers. Biden can say I will do that with out Congress, the war powers act.
Scholz cannot do that. That, to many who are not familiar with German laws and politics, can make Germany and a Kanzler look rather bad.
There are many examples for that. Kohl or Merkel for example, we call them in Germany " die Aussetzer".
They just sat out and waited how things would develope and then make a decision. Its typical German politics. But then on other problems they put the hammer down.
This is typical German politics, its slow, cumbersome, irritating, but when done, it goes very fast and once done rather ruthles.
Just go back in history, German reunification. It took month for West Germany to make up its mind, how to do it, but once it has made up its mind it droped the hammer. Its not a single party government. As I explained so many times German politics and the laws are very difficult.

Thank you for those insights....

 

[EnigmaO01]

If and its a big IF, they regain Crimea, they control the Black Sea - and half of Sea of Azov which either side can close it down.
Black Sea is the big win as Russian naval/air assets are pushed way back

I don't see the west as a bloc supporting retaking Crimea. They can say International Borders till the cows come home, but words are just words
Some would see that as a Russian red line and NATO could fracture on this .

I respectfully think you're wrong. I think the west is agreement thanks to the actions of the Russians, all that is officially internationally recognized as Ukraine, which includes Crimea goes back to Ukraine. I also can't see Ukraine being secure from Russia without that happening.

 

[Schrott]

My thought on this- Scholtz mishandled this from last fall when the request was made.
This issue has been booted around by the German Govt with conflicting statements by Ministers and confusion with Elected Officials slamming back & forth
And it all blew up in Scholtz's face

Germany wanted US tanks -they got that but what did they win?
Germany has been the 1 holding up the only common sense tank needed and available.
You know how the politicians were playing BS games on this.issue and how long they have been doing it
Germany lost stature/prestige/trust on this issue within NATO/EU etc
No sense in putting lipstick on a pig
How I see it
If there are positives for Germany from this, let me know

Lost Stature?
What stature does Germany have. Its just based on economic power. Nothing else. That is Germany's stature and power.
Its money talks and shiit walks. Only a few Nations can compet with Germany in that sector
Why do you think China has become so powerful. Money talks and shiit walks.
If Germany has a sniffle, the EU has a serious case of the flue and because of it the rest of the world.
Reputation, who cares, if you have the power of money talks and shiit walks.

 

[JANFU]

Even you do not get it. Which surprises me.
The german governmet is put together out of 3 parties, which cannot be as diverse as those parties are. Its not about Scholz, or Germany, it is about finding a consensus, a working platform for all 3 parties..

Yes I understand that a coalition was cobbled together, Wide policy differences
Who would have thought, IIRC a Green Minister, energy, making a wide variety of deals for NG?LNG
Not ure in this but Greens are against war, but the German Greens have been all in on supplying lethal aid including tanks for Ukraine

The Kanzler, for very good reasons is very limited in his powers. Biden can say I will do that with out Congress, the war powers act.

Scholtz was forced to provide Leopards.
I said a few week or so back it would be tough time for Scholtz.

Scholz cannot do that. That, to many who are not familiar with German laws and politics, can make Germany and a Kanzler look rather bad.

Read a poll on German public support for/against sending Leopards, 43/46, and I think 46 were against.
Germany is divided on this war, that much is & has been crystal clear.
Time for leadership a broader inclusion of the opposition on war related issues.
As for leaders and Scholtz, rightly or wrong ain't the person. But he will not be replaced
The governing coalition must work with the opposition on this.

 

[Hamish Howl]

Are they going to build repair facilities too? You know these tanks have turbo jet engines and the engines have an extremely short life, like 3,000 miles. Then the tank must be transported to a facility to have a new engine installed.

Why would they do that, when they can just hire civilian Dyncorp or Red River maintenance crews?

It takes 20 gallons of fuel to go one mile.

Wrong. It gets 0.6 MPG, a full order of magnitude more than .05.

It is the most complicated tank in existence.

It's almost unkillable, though.

The crew takes many many months to train.

Balls. Absolute rubbish. We taught Iraqis how to use them in a couple of weeks. Most of the required training time is maintenance, and hello, Dyncorp.

This is the absolutely dumbest idea so far.

It's going to be fun to watch.

 

[Hamish Howl]

If and its a big IF, they regain Crimea, they control the Black Sea - and half of Sea of Azov which either side can close it down.
Black Sea is the big win as Russian naval/air assets are pushed way back

I don't see the west as a bloc supporting retaking Crimea. They can say International Borders till the cows come home, but words are just words
Some would see that as a Russian red line and NATO could fracture on this .

If that's the case, then NATO doesn't deserve to exist.

 

[Schrott]

Yes I understand that a coalition was cobbled together, Wide policy differences
Who would have thought, IIRC a Green Minister, energy, making a wide variety of deals for NG?LNG
Not ure in this but Greens are against war, but the German Greens have been all in on supplying lethal aid including tanks for Ukraine

Scholtz was forced to provide Leopards.
I said a few week or so back it would be tough time for Scholtz.

Read a poll on German public support for/against sending Leopards, 43/46, and I think 46 were against.
Germany is divided on this war, that much is & has been crystal clear.
Time for leadership a broader inclusion of the opposition on war related issues.
As for leaders and Scholtz, rightly or wrong ain't the person. But he will not be replaced
The governing coalition must work with the opposition on this.

Public polls do not matter, its about party politics. How many times do I have to repeat that?

 

[Hamish Howl]

It's gone from thinking about it, to happening.

MSN

www.msn.com

​

The Biden administration has decided to provide M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, overriding previous concerns that the heavy battle tanks, the world’s most powerful, are too logistically burdensome for Kyiv’s forces, according to U.S. officials.​

Hot damn! But why stop at 30? We have those things lying around all over the place.

 

[JANFU]

If that's the case, then NATO doesn't deserve to exist.

It will be a contentious issue in the EU's top 3, Germany, France & Italy and the rest as well
Some will see it as a Russian red line. It will be much more of an issue than sending tanks was
Not sure on numbers but a substantial number support giving Ukrainian lands away, negotiated peace Chamberlain style, and stupid enough to think Russia will not come back for more of Ukraine.

Time permitting I will check out EU polls on some issues

 

[JANFU]

Wow! That thing is a beast. It has 50% greater effective gun range than the 120 mm cannon in the Abrams and Leopard.......

Drone killing ability as a defensive measure

 

[JANFU]

Public polls do not matter, its about party politics. How many times do I have to repeat that?

Polls are politicians life's blood.
What about the rest?? Right, wrong, what???

Yes I understand that a coalition was cobbled together, Wide policy differences
Who would have thought, IIRC a Green Minister, energy, making a wide variety of deals for NG?LNG
Not ure in this but Greens are against war, but the German Greens have been all in on supplying lethal aid including tanks for Ukraine

Scholtz was forced to provide Leopards.
I said a few week or so back it would be tough time for Scholtz.

Read a poll on German public support for/against sending Leopards, 43/46, and I think 46 were against.
Germany is divided on this war, that much is & has been crystal clear.
Time for leadership a broader inclusion of the opposition on war related issues.
As for leaders and Scholtz, rightly or wrong ain't the person. But he will not be replaced
The governing coalition must work with the opposition on this.