[W:199] What Americans Think about President Biden

[Doug64]

So here's the second of my threads on Rasmussen polls (the first is What Americans Think about Politics, with the background of where these are coming from).

Rasmussen is, so far as I know, the only polling company that still polls on the president's job approval every weekday (except holidays). Rasmussen actually uses a three-day rolling average, with 500 Likely Voters polled daily--so each day's number is from 1,500 Likely Voters over the last three days. Still, every day is a bit too fluid for me, I prefer longer periods. So here's Biden's average numbers over the past week, month, and since he was elected. Then I toss in Trump's and Obama's numbers from the same point in their own presidencies, for comparison.

Biden's past week:

• Strong Approval 21%
• Strong Disapproval 48%
• Total Approval 41%
• Total Disapproval 58%

Biden's past month:

• Strong Approval 22%
• Strong Disapproval 47%
• Total Approval 42%
• Total Disapproval 57%

Biden's time in office:

• Strong Approval 27%
• Strong Disapproval 44%
• Total Approval 46%
• Total Disapproval 52%

Trump's past week:

• Strong Approval 31%
• Strong Disapproval 42%
• Total Approval 47%
• Total Disapproval 52%

Trump's past month:

• Strong Approval 32%
• Strong Disapproval 42%
• Total Approval 47%
• Total Disapproval 51%

Trump's time in office:

• Strong Approval 30%
• Strong Disapproval 44%
• Total Approval 46%
• Total Disapproval 54%

Obama's past week:

• Strong Approval 25%
• Strong Disapproval 42%
• Total Approval 45%
• Total Disapproval 54%

Obama's past month:

• Strong Approval 25%
• Strong Disapproval 41%
• Total Approval 45%
• Total Disapproval 54%

Obama's time in office:

• Strong Approval 32%
• Strong Disapproval 35%
• Total Approval 52%
• Total Disapproval 47%

 

[Grand Mal]

So here's the second of my threads on Rasmussen polls (the first is What Americans Think about Politics, with the background of where these are coming from).

Rasmussen is, so far as I know, the only polling company that still polls on the president's job approval every weekday (except holidays). Rasmussen actually uses a three-day rolling average, with 500 Likely Voters polled daily--so each day's number is from 1,500 Likely Voters over the last three days. Still, every day is a bit too fluid for me, I prefer longer periods. So here's Biden's average numbers over the past week, month, and since he was elected. Then I toss in Trump's and Obama's numbers from the same point in their own presidencies, for comparison.

Biden's past week:

• Strong Approval 21%
• Strong Disapproval 48%
• Total Approval 41%
• Total Disapproval 58%

Biden's past month:

• Strong Approval 22%
• Strong Disapproval 47%
• Total Approval 42%
• Total Disapproval 57%

Biden's time in office:

• Strong Approval 27%
• Strong Disapproval 44%
• Total Approval 46%
• Total Disapproval 52%

Trump's past week:

• Strong Approval 31%
• Strong Disapproval 42%
• Total Approval 47%
• Total Disapproval 52%

Trump's past month:

• Strong Approval 32%
• Strong Disapproval 42%
• Total Approval 47%
• Total Disapproval 51%

Trump's time in office:

• Strong Approval 30%
• Strong Disapproval 44%
• Total Approval 46%
• Total Disapproval 54%

Obama's past week:

• Strong Approval 25%
• Strong Disapproval 42%
• Total Approval 45%
• Total Disapproval 54%

Obama's past month:

• Strong Approval 25%
• Strong Disapproval 41%
• Total Approval 45%
• Total Disapproval 54%

Obama's time in office:

• Strong Approval 32%
• Strong Disapproval 35%
• Total Approval 52%
• Total Disapproval 47%

Why do none of your category percentages add up to 100?

 

[Doug64]

Why do none of your category percentages add up to 100?

For the "Strong" categories, they are only a portion of the total. For the total support/oppose, rounding.

 

[Grand Mal]

For the "Strong" categories, they are only a portion of the total. For the total support/oppose, rounding.

Yeah, but the first category, for example, "Biden last week", the numbers add up to 168%. Were people allowed to tick multiple boxes?

 

[Doug64]

Yeah, but the first category, for example, "Biden last week", the numbers add up to 168%. Were people allowed to tick multiple boxes?

Got it, you’re reading it the wrong way. What Biden actually had was 21% that strongly approved of his job performance and 20% that somewhat approved, for a total approval of 41%; likewise for the disapproval numbers—47% and 10% for a total of 57%.

 

[reflechissez]

So here's the second of my threads on Rasmussen polls (the first is What Americans Think about Politics, with the background of where these are coming from).

Rasmussen is, so far as I know, the only polling company that still polls on the president's job approval every weekday (except holidays). Rasmussen actually uses a three-day rolling average, with 500 Likely Voters polled daily--so each day's number is from 1,500 Likely Voters over the last three days. Still, every day is a bit too fluid for me, I prefer longer periods. So here's Biden's average numbers over the past week, month, and since he was elected. Then I toss in Trump's and Obama's numbers from the same point in their own presidencies, for comparison.

Biden's past week:

• Strong Approval 21%
• Strong Disapproval 48%
• Total Approval 41%
• Total Disapproval 58%

Biden's past month:

• Strong Approval 22%
• Strong Disapproval 47%
• Total Approval 42%
• Total Disapproval 57%

Biden's time in office:

• Strong Approval 27%
• Strong Disapproval 44%
• Total Approval 46%
• Total Disapproval 52%

Trump's past week:

• Strong Approval 31%
• Strong Disapproval 42%
• Total Approval 47%
• Total Disapproval 52%

Trump's past month:

• Strong Approval 32%
• Strong Disapproval 42%
• Total Approval 47%
• Total Disapproval 51%

Trump's time in office:

• Strong Approval 30%
• Strong Disapproval 44%
• Total Approval 46%
• Total Disapproval 54%

Obama's past week:

• Strong Approval 25%
• Strong Disapproval 42%
• Total Approval 45%
• Total Disapproval 54%

Obama's past month:

• Strong Approval 25%
• Strong Disapproval 41%
• Total Approval 45%
• Total Disapproval 54%

Obama's time in office:

• Strong Approval 32%
• Strong Disapproval 35%
• Total Approval 52%
• Total Disapproval 47%

ok

 

[HIP56948]

With all respect, 2/3 of the American populace could not pass a simple citizenship test. (It's sadly true) That's beyond ignorant.
No wonder we're stuck with dumb-ass politicians. Any Polls that they take has no meaning, simply because most of them don't-know-shit.
.

https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2018-10-12/2-of-3-americans-wouldnt-pass-us-citizenship-test

 

[Doug64]

@HIP56948, the polls matter because people vote.

 

[Ishm]

So here's the second of my threads on Rasmussen polls (the first is What Americans Think about Politics, with the background of where these are coming from).

Rasmussen is, so far as I know, the only polling company that still polls on the president's job approval every weekday (except holidays). Rasmussen actually uses a three-day rolling average, with 500 Likely Voters polled daily--so each day's number is from 1,500 Likely Voters over the last three days. Still, every day is a bit too fluid for me, I prefer longer periods. So here's Biden's average numbers over the past week, month, and since he was elected. Then I toss in Trump's and Obama's numbers from the same point in their own presidencies, for comparison.

Biden's past week:

• Strong Approval 21%
• Strong Disapproval 48%
• Total Approval 41%
• Total Disapproval 58%

Biden's past month:

• Strong Approval 22%
• Strong Disapproval 47%
• Total Approval 42%
• Total Disapproval 57%

Biden's time in office:

• Strong Approval 27%
• Strong Disapproval 44%
• Total Approval 46%
• Total Disapproval 52%

Trump's past week:

• Strong Approval 31%
• Strong Disapproval 42%
• Total Approval 47%
• Total Disapproval 52%

Trump's past month:

• Strong Approval 32%
• Strong Disapproval 42%
• Total Approval 47%
• Total Disapproval 51%

Trump's time in office:

• Strong Approval 30%
• Strong Disapproval 44%
• Total Approval 46%
• Total Disapproval 54%

Obama's past week:

• Strong Approval 25%
• Strong Disapproval 42%
• Total Approval 45%
• Total Disapproval 54%

Obama's past month:

• Strong Approval 25%
• Strong Disapproval 41%
• Total Approval 45%
• Total Disapproval 54%

Obama's time in office:

• Strong Approval 32%
• Strong Disapproval 35%
• Total Approval 52%
• Total Disapproval 47%

The answer is obvious then. Bring back Obama. Only one with a positive approval rating while in office.

 

[HIP56948]

@HIP56948, the polls matter because people vote.

That's very true. Most people are not mentally handicapped, they just are lazy regarding how the system works.
What's even worse is the fact that only 19 percent, who were 45 years old or younger, passed the test.
Only reason that fact is worrisome is: We could do much better and we deserve it.

 

[VySky]

What’s absolutely amazing is there is anyone at all who approves of Biden. That should be concerning in of itself.

 

[Cardinal]

Yeah, but the first category, for example, "Biden last week", the numbers add up to 168%. Were people allowed to tick multiple boxes?

The last two figures would add up to about 100%. The first two figures only record strong reactions, ignoring “What’s a president?” responses.

 

[Doug64]

That's very true. Most people are not mentally handicapped, they just are lazy regarding how the system works.
What's even worse is the fact that only 19 percent, who were 45 years old or younger, passed the test.
Only reason that fact is worrisome is: We could do much better and we deserve it.

I would personally have no problem if, before the first time you vote you have to pass the citizenship exam. Considering how basic it is, the fact that there are so many that can’t is actually a little scary.

 

[Gateman_Wen]

So here's the second of my threads on Rasmussen polls (the first is What Americans Think about Politics, with the background of where these are coming from).

Rasmussen is, so far as I know, the only polling company that still polls on the president's job approval every weekday (except holidays). Rasmussen actually uses a three-day rolling average, with 500 Likely Voters polled daily--so each day's number is from 1,500 Likely Voters over the last three days. Still, every day is a bit too fluid for me, I prefer longer periods. So here's Biden's average numbers over the past week, month, and since he was elected. Then I toss in Trump's and Obama's numbers from the same point in their own presidencies, for comparison.

Biden's past week:

• Strong Approval 21%
• Strong Disapproval 48%
• Total Approval 41%
• Total Disapproval 58%

Biden's past month:

• Strong Approval 22%
• Strong Disapproval 47%
• Total Approval 42%
• Total Disapproval 57%

Biden's time in office:

• Strong Approval 27%
• Strong Disapproval 44%
• Total Approval 46%
• Total Disapproval 52%

Trump's past week:

• Strong Approval 31%
• Strong Disapproval 42%
• Total Approval 47%
• Total Disapproval 52%

Trump's past month:

• Strong Approval 32%
• Strong Disapproval 42%
• Total Approval 47%
• Total Disapproval 51%

Trump's time in office:

• Strong Approval 30%
• Strong Disapproval 44%
• Total Approval 46%
• Total Disapproval 54%

Obama's past week:

• Strong Approval 25%
• Strong Disapproval 42%
• Total Approval 45%
• Total Disapproval 54%

Obama's past month:

• Strong Approval 25%
• Strong Disapproval 41%
• Total Approval 45%
• Total Disapproval 54%

Obama's time in office:

• Strong Approval 32%
• Strong Disapproval 35%
• Total Approval 52%
• Total Disapproval 47%

You do realize rasmussen is dismissed as an "outlier" more often than not because they skew so heavily republican.

 

[Doug64]

You do realize rasmussen is dismissed as an "outlier" more often than not because they skew so heavily republican.

That “outlier” gets a B rating from FiveThirtyEight, and performs better than most on presidential elections—sometimes, spectacularly so. Other pollsters skew just as much or more to the left, and don’t get castigated for it. One thing I’ve noticed over the decades is that elections tend to end up to the right of the polls.

 

[Doug64]

So, not much change for Biden over the past week, though his constant low numbers are gnawing away at his term-long average.

Biden's past week:

• Strong Approval 22% (+1)
• Strong Disapproval 48%
• Total Approval 41%
• Total Disapproval 58%

Biden's past month:

• Strong Approval 22%
• Strong Disapproval 47%
• Total Approval 41% (-1)
• Total Disapproval 57%

Biden's time in office:

• Strong Approval 27%
• Strong Disapproval 44%
• Total Approval 46%
• Total Disapproval 53% (+1)

Trump's past week:

• Strong Approval 30% (-1)
• Strong Disapproval 43% (+1)
• Total Approval 47%
• Total Disapproval 52%

Trump's past month:

• Strong Approval 31% (-1)
• Strong Disapproval 42%
• Total Approval 47%
• Total Disapproval 52% (+1)

Trump's time in office:

• Strong Approval 30%
• Strong Disapproval 44%
• Total Approval 46%
• Total Disapproval 54%

Obama's past week:

• Strong Approval 28% (+3)
• Strong Disapproval 42%
• Total Approval 46% (+1)
• Total Disapproval 53% (-1)

Obama's past month:

• Strong Approval 26% (+1)
• Strong Disapproval 42% (+1)
• Total Approval 45%
• Total Disapproval 54%

Obama's time in office:

• Strong Approval 32%
• Strong Disapproval 35%
• Total Approval 51% (-1)
• Total Disapproval 48% (+1)

 

[jaypatriot]

So more

Biden's past month:

• Strong Approval 22%
• Strong Disapproval 47%
• Total Approval 41% (-1)
• Total Disapproval 57%

So looking at the past month, a lot more people disapprove of Biden's performance over the past month.
They really believe Biden has that much power in the world to do something about inflation and to lead the countries that matter to defy Putin and his war machine.

That's a lot of hope to place on someone who struggles to complete thoughts; avoid gaffes; and is heading toward even more cognitive failure - as most of us in this world.

Heaven help us.

 

[Doug64]

So a little bit of improvement for Biden over the past week.

Biden's past week:

• Strong Approval 23% (+1)
• Strong Disapproval 47% (-1)
• Total Approval 42% (+1)
• Total Disapproval 57% (-1)

Biden's past month:

• Strong Approval 22%
• Strong Disapproval 47%
• Total Approval 41%
• Total Disapproval 57%

Biden's time in office:

• Strong Approval 27%
• Strong Disapproval 44%
• Total Approval 46%
• Total Disapproval 53%

Trump's past week:

• Strong Approval 30%
• Strong Disapproval 42% (-1)
• Total Approval 46% (-1)
• Total Disapproval 53% (+1)

Trump's past month:

• Strong Approval 31%
• Strong Disapproval 42%
• Total Approval 46% (-1)
• Total Disapproval 52%

Trump's time in office:

• Strong Approval 30%
• Strong Disapproval 44%
• Total Approval 46%
• Total Disapproval 54%

Obama's past week:

• Strong Approval 30% (+2)
• Strong Disapproval 42%
• Total Approval 47% (+1)
• Total Disapproval 52% (-1)

Obama's past month:

• Strong Approval 27% (+1)
• Strong Disapproval 42%
• Total Approval 46% (+1)
• Total Disapproval 53% (-1)

Obama's time in office:

• Strong Approval 32%
• Strong Disapproval 35%
• Total Approval 51%
• Total Disapproval 48%

 

[Manc Skipper]

With unemployment down to 3.5% yet most Americans thinking he's doing badly on jobs, it seems the constant framing of the Biden admin in a negative way by the media is having an effect.

 

[Doug64]

@Manc Skipper, I suspect most are thinking that the drop in unemployment is a given with the pandemic ending, but inflation, the border, and how Biden has handled foreign policy have all been disasters.

 

[NWRatCon]

That “outlier” gets a B rating from FiveThirtyEight, and performs better than most on presidential elections—sometimes, spectacularly so. Other pollsters skew just as much or more to the left, and don’t get castigated for it. One thing I’ve noticed over the decades is that elections tend to end up to the right of the polls.

Good thread. Rasmussen, as a pollster, is basically crap, IMHO. As an aggregator, is marginal. Rasmussen is only "right" on presidential elections because they "correct" the algorithm to match the polling consensus when the election is a week away. They're notorious for that. No one with any real sense relies on Rasmussen regularly, because they manipulate their data.

I pay attention to polling. It was an undergraduate emphasis. 538 is a much better aggregation outfit because they weight their analysis by accuracy. And their accuracy analysis is the best in the business. Reliable pollsters tend to be universities, like Marist. But, Rasmussen does do regular polling, which is a plus. Polling over time tends to yield trends which are much more valuable than snapshots. Gallup does this well, using the same methodology every time.

The biggest problems with polling, today, are sampling methods and weighting. That's where some big polling outfits get things wrong. Pollsters have to adjust methodology regularly (like moving from landlines to cell phones as the population shifted). Those that rely on self-selection (like online polls) are particularly inaccurate.

 

[Manc Skipper]

@Manc Skipper, I suspect most are thinking that the drop in unemployment is a given with the pandemic ending, but inflation, the border, and how Biden has handled foreign policy have all been disasters.

So only the bad stuff is his fault. (The pandemic isn't ending.) Only today, a UK holiday airline cancelled 200 flights for lack of staff due to Covid.

 

[Doug64]

Good thread.

Thanks.

Rasmussen, as a pollster, is basically crap, IMHO. As an aggregator, is marginal. Rasmussen is only "right" on presidential elections because they "correct" the algorithm to match the polling consensus when the election is a week away. They're notorious for that. No one with any real sense relies on Rasmussen regularly, because they manipulate their data.

I've heard that accusation (of adjusting the algorithm just before the presidential election), but there's a problem with it. If that is in fact what Rasmussen did with their polling you'd expect an abrupt change in that final poll, and I don't remember seeing that at all, much less year after year. As for "manipulating their data," Rasmussen provides the demographics for their polls in the crosstabs, any manipulation would show up there. If they did manipulate their data, it would show up there and I doubt they would have the "B" grade 538 gives them. Nor are they aggregate poll, though they are used by those that do.

I pay attention to polling. It was an undergraduate emphasis. 538 is a much better aggregation outfit because they weight their analysis by accuracy. And their accuracy analysis is the best in the business. Reliable pollsters tend to be universities, like Marist. But, Rasmussen does do regular polling, which is a plus. Polling over time tends to yield trends which are much more valuable than snapshots. Gallup does this well, using the same methodology every time.

I do like 538's analysis of pollsters, though I do have a problem with at least one aspect of their grading, taking how the polling is done into account for longtime pollsters. Still, their analysis of the pollsters' bias is is certainly useful. Though I don't think most people recognize just how little a difference that bias is. For example, they find the Rasmussen leans toward the Right by 1.5--which works out to an average adjustment of 0.75% to the respective numbers.

The biggest problems with polling, today, are sampling methods and weighting. That's where some big polling outfits get things wrong. Pollsters have to adjust methodology regularly (like moving from landlines to cell phones as the population shifted). Those that rely on self-selection (like online polls) are particularly inaccurate.

True, and getting the weighting right is still more of an art than a science.

 

[Conservative]

Yeah, but the first category, for example, "Biden last week", the numbers add up to 168%. Were people allowed to tick multiple boxes?

More evidence of what the world and country thinks of Biden and rightly so

The ‘cabal’ that bragged of foisting Joe Biden on us must answer for his failed presidency

It’s time to admit it. Less than a year in, Joe Biden’s is a failed presidency.

nypost.com

 

[Conservative]

So only the bad stuff is his fault. (The pandemic isn't ending.) Only today, a UK holiday airline cancelled 200 flights for lack of staff due to Covid.

Biden had the vaccine for over a year now, said he would stop the virus, so many times you called on Trump claims as lies but now Biden in office is different. Here is the reality that you want to ignore

The ‘cabal’ that bragged of foisting Joe Biden on us must answer for his failed presidency

It’s time to admit it. Less than a year in, Joe Biden’s is a failed presidency.

nypost.com