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[W:#101]Climate Change Rapidly Intensified Hurricane Ian Before Landfall

Galactic Spin

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Wrong. I read the forecasts. They said the shear and patterns would knock it down after landfall.

I first heard 4 or 5 days ago it would slow down and strengthen.
 

longview

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Which says absolutely nothing. You think casting irrational doubt somehow lends support to any claim you make. This is the sort of mental handicap I was talking about.
look , you are stating a windspeed that is not officially recorded, or if it is, you have not cited it.
I am stating that the wind speed wind speed measured at a NOAA official station, at Fort Myers, neve got above 80 knots.
mine is not some hypothetical speed, but an actual measured speed recorded.
Fort Myers, FL - Station ID: 8725520
1664468343500.png
 

noonereal

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Wrong. I read the forecasts. They said the shear and patterns would knock it down after landfall.

I first heard 4 or 5 days ago it would slow down and strengthen.

Your post is full of shit.
 

Galactic Spin

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look , you are stating a windspeed that is not officially recorded, or if it is, you have not cited it.
And your attempt to cast doubt is an irrational attempt to further a narrative for which you have zero evidence or good argument. I don't feel as though any more work is required of me. But all the work of propping up your narrative still lies ahead of you. Good luck.
 

Galactic Spin

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longview

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And your attempt to cast doubt is an irrational attempt to further a narrative for which you have zero evidence or good argument. I don't feel as though any more work is required of me. But all the work of propping up your bullshit narrative still lies ahead of you. Good luck.
I cannot help that you cannot support what you are claiming, while I can show the NOAA official weather station for what I am claiming.
Who is really being irrational here?
 

noonereal

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I was right. People are obviously overreacting because Ian went through the south side of Orlando and totally missed Gainesville. Schools and trash pickup were canceled for nothing.
 

longview

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Then get knocked down to a one. Good ****in grief. Are you even serious?
I think what happened is that there are three types of measurements
Drop sensors, doppler radar, and ground based weather stations.
The drop sensors record the wind speed and pressure as the fall to the ocean.
The doppler looks into the clouds from a distance and measures how fast the raindrops are moving,
and lastly the ground station is an anemometer.
It is entirely possible that the high level winds hundreds if not thousands of feet from the ground measured much higher wind speeds.
but we have the actual anemometer reading from the NOAA station in Fort Myers, and it never got above 80 knots.
 

watsup

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I was right. People are obviously overreacting because Ian went through the south side of Orlando and totally missed Gainesville. Schools and trash pickup were canceled for nothing.

Take it easy. Caution is always best in a situation like this. Hurricanes can and do change course at the last minute.
 

noonereal

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Geez, how long are you going to whine about “blown forecast”. Get over it.

What is your compulsion to defend the blown forecast?

Seems like psychological projection to me.
 

watsup

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What is your compulsion to defend the blown forecast?

Seems like psychological projection to me.

What is your compulsion to focus on a very minor situation when thousands of people are now without homes? That is the real question.
 

noonereal

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What is your compulsion to focus on a very minor situation when thousands of people are now without homes? That is the real question.

Your posts are clownish. :eek:
 

longview

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Your posts are clownish. :eek:
For the longest time, I thought he was a robot, but then I thought
I was wrong to have thought so poorly of robots.
He is not worth wasting your time!
 

Peacenik

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Climate Change Rapidly Intensified Hurricane Ian Before Landfall​


Here's what the IPCC says:

IPCC AR5 Chapter 14 Page 1220
Cyclones
Based on process understanding and agreement in 21st century projections,
it is likely that the global frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones will either
decrease or remain essentially unchanged, concurrent with a likely increase in
both global mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and precipitation rates.
The future influence of climate change on tropical cyclones is likely to vary by
region, but the specific characteristics of the changes are not yet well quantified
and there is low confidence in region-specific projections of frequency and intensity.
_______________________________________________________________________________________


[T]he specific characteristics of the changes are not yet well quantified and there
is low confidence in region-specific projections of frequency and intensity.

The IPCC assessment reports are like the Bible, you can find what you want
support your argument.

Me? I'd say after reading through the Tropical Cyclone sections of Chapter 14
and IPCC AR5 Chapter 2 2.6.3 Tropical Storms the IPCC simply doesn't know,
and neither do you.

I have seen enough to be convinced of increased instances of rapid intensification.
 

Peacenik

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Not for the

Not for the hundreds mentioned!
Here is what your cited story said,
The story has been updated. It no longer says this: "While I don't have confirmed numbers, I definitely know the fatalities are in the hundreds," Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno said"
 

Peacenik

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It landed south and instead of experiencing the wind sheer which was forecast to knock it down to a Cat 1, it ballooned to just short of a Cat 5.
Landfall was difficult to forecast because it came in at an oblique angle. A shift in track would also give the shear more or less time to decrease the intensity. Turns out it was less.
 

Peacenik

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look , you are stating a windspeed that is not officially recorded, or if it is, you have not cited it.
I am stating that the wind speed wind speed measured at a NOAA official station, at Fort Myers, neve got above 80 knots.
mine is not some hypothetical speed, but an actual measured speed recorded.
Fort Myers, FL - Station ID: 8725520
View attachment 67415574
Windspeed could be reduced by interaction with buildings and trees. Ft Myers is not on the coast. That weather station is up a river from the coast.

In a sheltered Marina
 

Peacenik

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I think what happened is that there are three types of measurements
Drop sensors, doppler radar, and ground based weather stations.
The drop sensors record the wind speed and pressure as the fall to the ocean.
The doppler looks into the clouds from a distance and measures how fast the raindrops are moving,
and lastly the ground station is an anemometer.
It is entirely possible that the high level winds hundreds if not thousands of feet from the ground measured much higher wind speeds.
but we have the actual anemometer reading from the NOAA station in Fort Myers, and it never got above 80 knots.
That station is inland. Interaction with the land will reduce windspeed. An observer on the actual coast would see greater wind speeds. Fort Myers Beach got it worse than Fort Myers.
 

longview

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That station is inland. Interaction with the land will reduce windspeed. An observer on the actual coast would see greater wind speeds. Fort Myers Beach got it worse than Fort Myers.
It might cut the wind down by 10% but not reduce the speed from 150 mph to below 80 mph, there is simply too much an energy difference.
The real damage in Fort Myers beach is from storm surge.
 
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