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[W:#101]Climate Change Rapidly Intensified Hurricane Ian Before Landfall

And you're not comparing that to the forecast nor demanding they match?

Or else 'the forecast was blown?'
The intensity of the actual storm is what is being hyped, the forecast is not as important, other that it should be close to what the storm actually is.
 
So if a land station does not measure the forecast wind speed then you think it means they 'blew the forecast?'

Even if the land station was destroyed by the storm before it could complete a full data set?
Incomplete data is different, we have the complete data from Ft Myers and Ian there was a Cat1 storm.
Hurricane scale
 
I gave you the link
An experimental drone at some unknown location in Ian on sept 28, yes, but how does that compare to other similar measurements in other hurricanes,
Oh wait, that was the first time!
 
I am contending that the recently noticed rapid intensification is an indication that climate change is already affecting our weather patterns.

Katrina wasn't that bad until just before it hit. It encountered warm water and rapidly intensified.

That's what Ian did, too. The forecasting improved since Katrina. Now the NHC is looking for conditions which cause rapid intensification. The NHC forecast Ian to undergo rapid intensification and that is precisely what occurred.

When looking at previous records we should be looking for how frequently these rapidly intensified storms have occurred. That's happening more often now that the effects of climate change are becoming apparent.
If that is what you want to talk about, then you also need a explanation for the rapid slow down of the wind speed at the land stations!
Was the gulf water any warmer than any other September?
 
I was curious to see if hurricane IAN's strength is really unprecedented since, as expected, AGW has been cited as the cause.
Turns out IAN's strength is not unprecedented.
Such hurricanes affecting FL alone have been recorded over the last 2 centuries.
You have to look for them but they're in there.
Data for the 19th century is not very complete.
And we already know that greater hurricane frequency isn't a result of AGW cuz it hasn't occurred.

What happens when hurricanes pass over warmer water? Is the water in the Gulf area generally warmer due to AGW?
 
I am contending that the recently noticed rapid intensification is an indication that climate change is already affecting our weather patterns.

Katrina wasn't that bad until just before it hit. It encountered warm water and rapidly intensified.

That's what Ian did, too. The forecasting improved since Katrina. Now the NHC is looking for conditions which cause rapid intensification. The NHC forecast Ian to undergo rapid intensification and that is precisely what occurred.

When looking at previous records we should be looking for how frequently these rapidly intensified storms have occurred. That's happening more often now that the effects of climate change are becoming apparent.
Can't do that unless you actually have a larger amount of accurate historical data to look at.
But even using the data that we do have it doesn't support your theory.
Unless you want to assume AGW has been doing what you're assuming for centuries.
 
Dude read the link.
I did, that was the first time they tried the drone.
It worked well but without anything to compare it to, the readings could be skewed.
 
What happens when hurricanes pass over warmer water? Is the water in the Gulf area generally warmer due to AGW?
To begin with, it takes more than a body of warm water to form a hurricane. Other factors are involved. Otherwise we'd have nothing but hurricanes for half a year on half the earth.
And those natural laws have always existed to form hurricanes of various strengths whether or not they have been reported.
 
If that is what you want to talk about, then you also need a explanation for the rapid slow down of the wind speed at the land stations!
Was the gulf water any warmer than any other September?
The NHC forecast shear and reduction of intensity. That's what happened.

Good question about the Gulf water temperatures. I'll see what I can learn.
 
Can't do that unless you actually have a larger amount of accurate historical data to look at.
But even using the data that we do have it doesn't support your theory.
Unless you want to assume AGW has been doing what you're assuming for centuries.
If the data to support my contention is simply not available for centuries then it is also not available to claim the contention is incorrect.
 
To begin with, it takes more than a body of warm water to form a hurricane. Other factors are involved. Otherwise we'd have nothing but hurricanes for half a year on half the earth.
And those natural laws have always existed to form hurricanes of various strengths whether or not they have been reported.
Rapid intensification has only been observed in recent decades. That suggests Climate Change is involved.
 
We are seeing rapid intensification of hurricanes. The oceans are warming:

Heat stored in the ocean causes its water to expand, which is responsible for one-third to one-half of global sea level rise. Most of the added energy is stored at the surface, at a depth of zero to 700 meters. The last 10 years were the ocean’s warmest decade since at least the 1800s. The year 2021 was the ocean’s warmest recorded year and saw the highest global sea level.

Here is what they said: "The last 10 years were the ocean’s warmest decade since at least the 1800s."

NASA Ocean Warming Records
 
The NHC forecast shear and reduction of intensity. That's what happened.

Good question about the Gulf water temperatures. I'll see what I can learn.
A reduction from a Cat 4 to a Cat1 did not happen in the time frame mentioned, people were still talking about 140 and 150 mph wind speeds as Ian was coming ashore, while the actual wind speed at Ft Myers never broke 80 mph(75 knots)
 
To begin with, it takes more than a body of warm water to form a hurricane. Other factors are involved. Otherwise we'd have nothing but hurricanes for half a year on half the earth.
And those natural laws have always existed to form hurricanes of various strengths whether or not they have been reported.

You did not answer the questions directly. You are deflecting. Let me try again.
What happens when a hurricane passes over warmer water? Is the water in the Gulf are generally warmer due to AGW? Why are you afraid to answer the questions directly?
 
11AM National Hurricane Center 9-28-22:



Major Hurricane - Cat 4 - Almost a Cat 5.

155 mph winds.



The NHC indicators were projecting 120 mph last evening. The storm crossed climate change warmed waters of the Gulf of Mexico overnight and rapidly intensified into a category 4 Major Hurricane. It didn't have to be this bad, but human industrial activity over the last 120 years has put too much carbon dioxide in the air and caused global warming and warming of the seas. This causes hurricanes to be more intense. Ian is a prime example. Just like Katrina.



Climate Change is Helping to Rapidly Turbocharge Storms Like Hurricane Ian

Just more climate change quackery.
 
If the data to support my contention is simply not available for centuries then it is also not available to claim the contention is incorrect.
The data we do have does.
 
The data we do have does.
An illogical argument. There is no historical data on the existence of rapid intensification. It is a newly noticed phenomenon. It has occurred in conjunction with other effects of climate change.
 
You did not answer the questions directly. You are deflecting. Let me try again.
What happens when a hurricane passes over warmer water?
Hurricanes only form over warm water. That's not news.
Is the water in the Gulf are generally warmer due to AGW?
That was a clunky sentence structure but your premise makes the answer "no".
Why are you afraid to answer the questions directly?
That was another false premise.
 
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