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[W:#101]Climate Change Rapidly Intensified Hurricane Ian Before Landfall

mrjurrs

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11AM National Hurricane Center 9-28-22:



Major Hurricane - Cat 4 - Almost a Cat 5.

155 mph winds.



The NHC indicators were projecting 120 mph last evening. The storm crossed climate change warmed waters of the Gulf of Mexico overnight and rapidly intensified into a category 4 Major Hurricane. It didn't have to be this bad, but human industrial activity over the last 120 years has put too much carbon dioxide in the air and caused global warming and warming of the seas. This causes hurricanes to be more intense. Ian is a prime example. Just like Katrina.



Climate Change is Helping to Rapidly Turbocharge Storms Like Hurricane Ian

I saw that water temperatures in the Gulf off the FL coast was 83-85 degrees.
 

longview

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The NHC rated the storm as a Cat 4. It was no mistake. Widespread devastation has resulted. Lives lost.
A cat4 has certain requirements that were not meet, still a very bad storm, but not a total devastation cat 4 storm.
There is a very real danger to over rate these storms, people need to know that anything over a cat 2 is a reason to evacuate, very few people survive being on the coast in a cat 4.
 

longview

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Because I showed you the same, from the same source. Because your posts are dishonest, cherry picked piles of shit.
And your source said the measured sustained wind speed was 85 mph, why lie about it?
 

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An internet search revealed no hits on search words:

"Ian forecast over played, hyped up, storm not so bad"

Such a position is destined to be a losing

Everything listed is simply stories about the destruction. Nothing supports the contention that the storm was not so bad.

It should be remembered:

1. The NHC does the best job they can. The NHC not guarantee the forecasts will match what on ground weather stations record.

2. Hurricane structure is imperfect. The maximum winds are found in the feeder bands near the eyewall, not in the spaces between feeder bands. The eye can wobble. It can change shape. There can be quadrants of the eyewall which do not contain the maximum winds.

3. Even if a storm turns out to be less intense than forecast it is wise to heed the forecast and take appropriate action because it is unknown before the storm whether or not it will achieve the forecast wind speed, and once the storm begins it becomes impossible to travel to safety.
 

Peacenik

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A cat4 has certain requirements that were not meet, still a very bad storm, but not a total devastation cat 4 storm.
There is a very real danger to over rate these storms, people need to know that anything over a cat 2 is a reason to evacuate, very few people survive being on the coast in a cat 4.
What requirements? That a land station actually record a reading matching the forecast? Where is this requirement? Do you have a link?
 

Peacenik

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A cat4 has certain requirements that were not meet, still a very bad storm, but not a total devastation cat 4 storm.
There is a very real danger to over rate these storms, people need to know that anything over a cat 2 is a reason to evacuate, very few people survive being on the coast in a cat 4.
People stayed and people died. That alone shoots down any notion that the forecast was over rated. If they had evacuated as advised they would be alive.
 

longview

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What requirements? That a land station actually record a reading matching the forecast? Where is this requirement? Do you have a link?
The scale has very specific sustained wind speeds
 

longview

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People stayed and people died. That alone shoots down any notion that the forecast was over rated. If they had evacuated as advised they would be alive.
Not at all! Plenty of people die in cat 1 storms.
 

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Saying it is a cat 4 or 5 when it is only a cat 1 or 2 is playing it up!
A Cat1 can be a huge disaster, and the actual 8.5 foot storm surge, was plenty bad for that topology and a lot of Mobil homes.
It was a cat 4 possibly a cat 5. The barrier islands have been totally destroyed, Ft Meyers is all but gone. Not all of Ft Meyers is beach front or subjected to the surge.....and even those houses are damaged beyond recognition. Stop trying to downplay what was a terrible situation. There is no reason for National Hurricane Center to play anything up.
 

ClaraD

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A cat4 has certain requirements that were not meet, still a very bad storm, but not a total devastation cat 4 storm.
There is a very real danger to over rate these storms, people need to know that anything over a cat 2 is a reason to evacuate, very few people survive being on the coast in a cat 4.
It was a cat 4 storm

 

ClaraD

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An internet search revealed no hits on search words:

"Ian forecast over played, hyped up, storm not so bad"

Such a position is destined to be a losing

Everything listed is simply stories about the destruction. Nothing supports the contention that the storm was not so bad.

It should be remembered:

1. The NHC does the best job they can. The NHC not guarantee the forecasts will match what on ground weather stations record.

2. Hurricane structure is imperfect. The maximum winds are found in the feeder bands near the eyewall, not in the spaces between feeder bands. The eye can wobble. It can change shape. There can be quadrants of the eyewall which do not contain the maximum winds.

3. Even if a storm turns out to be less intense than forecast it is wise to heed the forecast and take appropriate action because it is unknown before the storm whether or not it will achieve the forecast wind speed, and once the storm begins it becomes impossible to travel to safety.
The storm was absolutely bad....it looks like an atomic bomb went off in Ft Meyers
 

longview

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It was a cat 4 possibly a cat 5. The barrier islands have been totally destroyed, Ft Meyers is all but gone. Not all of Ft Meyers is beach front or subjected to the surge.....and even those houses are damaged beyond recognition. Stop trying to downplay what was a terrible situation. There is no reason for National Hurricane Center to play anything up.
Yet the official weather station at Ft Myers never got above 80 mph, that does not work if the wind speed at Ft Myers beach, some 10 mile away was 150 mph. The storm surge reached 8.5 feet, so could have reached far inland.
 

ClaraD

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Yet the official weather station at Ft Myers never got above 80 mph, that does not work if the wind speed at Ft Myers beach, some 10 mile away was 150 mph. The storm surge reached 8.5 feet, so could have reached far inland.
post the link showing it never got above 80 or that it was even able to measure during the storm. Its very likely it was taken out....the electric grid isn't just down, it is wiped out....80 mph winds don't do that in Florida.
 

ClaraD

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Except that no where was a sustained wind above 85 mph recorded during land fall!
Now you are just flat lying. Stop listening to the conspiracy theory nonsense of Tucker Carleson. He lies to his audience and brags about lying to the gullible fools that watch him.
 
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longview

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post the link showing it never got above 80 or that it was even able to measure during the storm. Its very likely it was taken out....the electric grid isn't just down, it is wiped out....80 mph winds don't do that in Florida.
1664587951239.png
This was the official data for the area of the main strike. “ maximum measured wind speed 85 mph,
They did estimate a 145 mph wind speed, but did not measure it.
 

ClaraD

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How so? I have cited an official notice from the National Hurricane center, what is your source?
No, you have yet to provide a single link to anything...and the stuff you posted....it said clearly 145 mph sustained winds...either you didn't read it or someone fixed it before you posted it.
 

ClaraD

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You were quoting WeatherStem, which was offline at that time...so that isn't the correct measurement. They announced on Twitter 2 days ago that the station in Cape Coral was offline.
Now I know why you didn't provide a link.
 

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The storm has nothing to do with global warming fiction. The GW cult is strong.
I don't think it is wise to try to tie one event to global warming. What scientists have predicted is the increasing likelihood of more severe storms than normal. But deniers gonna deny until the water reaches their lower lip.
 

longview

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You were quoting WeatherStem, which was offline at that time...so that isn't the correct measurement. They announced on Twitter 2 days ago that the station in Cape Coral was offline.
Now I know why you didn't provide a link.
The measurements were the fire station!
 
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