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[W:1][W:11][W:368] Russia invades Ukraine: Live Thread

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reinaert said:
Could you clarify, nomad?
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I did a bit in post #11,700 (holy ****), but I'm just disappointed how many groups and individuals on the left have taken a very poor stance on the Ukraine conflict. From Jacobin, to the DSA, large online leftists like Hasan, etc.
 
Centrist said:
This is not a video game of Red Alert.

War will be over when:

a) Zelensky wakes up to reality, negotiates with the help of the Americans and Israelis a solution to get all the russian troops out of western Ukraine which is the most important thing so they don't install a puppet government.

b) Zelensky will not wake up to reality, in which case he will not negotiate, will end up in a city in the far western of Ukraine and while he tweets many civilians will lead an insurgent war for months/years to follow. In the meanwhile the Russians will be able to install a puppet government in Kyiv and get their FSB people in every branch of government.

Anyone that thinks Putin will retreat now or some good general will replace him is too much of a dreamer.
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I guess Zelensky is going with option b)



Hope I am wrong about the scenario.

According to the Institute of War russians are to seize Kyiv in the next 48 hours.
 
Centrist said:
According to the Institute of War russians are to seize Kyiv in the next 48 hours.
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Absolutely delusional. Which institute of war said that? Is it Russian?

That statement will age about as well as all the ones claiming the Russians really were only on a training exercise. And all the statements claiming Ukraine would fall in under a week.
 
ChickenTendies said:
1. I'm only stating the fact that Russia wants buffer states.
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AKA Putin wants to control sovereign nations and will invade them if they don't do what he wants. Absurd.
Maybe Putin wants to rule the Moon too, should we just give him what he wants because "what he wants" makes it right? Gods man.

ChickenTendies said:
The US knows this, yet is actively chipping it away. By backing Russia into a corner,
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Backing them into a corner? You mean condemning his invasion/attack of a sovereign nation that was moving towards democracy/freedom?
ChickenTendies said:
2. Before the Euromaidan protests, the Ukrainian public did not favor joining NATO as Russia had no reason to act aggressively towards Ukraine as it does now. It was only after the fascist led protests and the consequent heavy-handed Russian response that pushed public opinion in favor.
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After they chose freedom over Russia, yeah, we know.

You're obfuscating the "facts", and you know it.
 
Nomad4Ever said:
I cannot even begin to express the visceral pain I feel seeing so many bad (quite frankly often disgusting) opinions from people that otherwise I would generally agree with and consider a part of "the left". I think it hurts more because I expected a good portion of the Trump crowd to side with Putin given how Trump has cultivated that relationship in the past few years. I guess I just expected better.
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Strange times make for strange political alliances.
 
Nomad4Ever said:
Absolutely delusional. Which institute of war said that? Is it Russian?

That statement will age about as well as all the ones claiming the Russians really were only on a training exercise. And all the statements claiming Ukraine would fall in under a week.
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The Institute for the Study of War is a United States–based think tank founded in 2007 by Kimberly Kagan. ISW describes itself as a non-partisan think tank providing research and analysis regarding issues of defense and foreign affairs.

https://www.understandingwar.org/

March 9.png
 
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Nomad4Ever said:
Absolutely delusional. Which institute of war said that? Is it Russian?

That statement will age about as well as all the ones claiming the Russians really were only on a training exercise. And all the statements claiming Ukraine would fall in under a week.
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Think about the siege of Leningrad. It did not bring down the Soviet Union during World War II. What the Russians withstood then from the Nazis was far worse than anything we have yet seen in Ukraine, but it didn't bring Russia (the USSR) down. I believe Ukraine is equally valiant.
 
Intentional and direct attacks on hospitals are war crimes.

No ifs, buts or maybes.

Beyond repulsive.

Whoever ordered that attack and those who support it are complete filth.
 
Centrist said:
I guess Zelensky is going with option b)



Hope I am wrong about the scenario.

According to the Institute of War russians are to seize Kyiv in the next 48 hours.
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I read a source begin an offensive 24-48 hrs, no way they can take Kiev in 48 hours
 
JANFU said:
I read a source begin an offensive, no way they can take Kiev in 48 hours
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You are right, maybe there was a confusion in the translation as I read this in european press.

In 48 hours they will start the full offensive in Kyiv, not seize it. I take that back.

This is the March 9th map:

March 9.png
 
Centrist said:
You are right, maybe there was a confusion in the translation as I read this in european press.

In 48 hours they will start the full offensive in Kyiv, not seize it. I take that back.

This is the March 9th map:

View attachment 67379128
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No issues here, it is an excellent addition when you can source info from other countries and translate those languages.
More sources the better
Thank you
 
Nomad4Ever said:
Absolutely delusional. Which institute of war said that? Is it Russian?

That statement will age about as well as all the ones claiming the Russians really were only on a training exercise. And all the statements claiming Ukraine would fall in under a week.
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Kiev will become a serious bloody mess if the Russian try to take it. It had now over a week to prepare. That city is loaded with arms, especially with all the short range anti tank weapons. That fighting would take weeks, with huge loses on both sides.
 
Schrott said:
Kiev will become a serious bloody mess if the Russian try to take it. It had now over a week to prepare. That city is loaded with arms, especially with all the short range anti tank weapons. That fighting would take weeks, with huge loses on both sides.
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I would say months. Bloody months
 
Was not aware they were meeting

 
Centrist said:
The Institute for the Study of War is a United States–based think tank founded in 2007 by Kimberly Kagan. ISW describes itself as a non-partisan think tank providing research and analysis regarding issues of defense and foreign affairs.

https://www.understandingwar.org/

View attachment 67379121
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From YOUR source that YOU claimed said that Russia would take Kyiv in 48 hours:
The battle for Kyiv is likely to continue to be a drawn-out affair unless the Russians can launch a more concentrated and coherent attack than they have yet shown the ability to conduct.
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Institute for the Study of War

Russian operations to continue the encirclement of and assault on Kyiv have likely begun, although on a smaller scale and in a more ad hoc manner than ISW expected. The equivalent of a Russian reinforced brigade reportedly tried to advance toward Kyiv
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org

Please show me where this group is claiming Kyiv will fall in the next 48 hours like you claimed here.
Centrist said:
According to the Institute of War russians are to seize Kyiv in the next 48 hours.
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Nomad4Ever said:
From YOUR source that YOU claimed said that Russia would take Kyiv in 48 hours:

Institute for the Study of War

Russian operations to continue the encirclement of and assault on Kyiv have likely begun, although on a smaller scale and in a more ad hoc manner than ISW expected. The equivalent of a Russian reinforced brigade reportedly tried to advance toward Kyiv
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org

Please show me where this group is claiming Kyiv will fall in the next 48 hours like you claimed here.
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Post 11714 - corrected it
 
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