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[W:1][W:11][W:368] Russia invades Ukraine: Live Thread

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Yesterday I saw some videos on Twitter. Knew then more was coming.
Truth be, I think we all had strong suspicions based upon past Russian behavior that we would find mass execution sites.

My friend, Man is very good at killing man.
I have not been looking at any of the visuals, but have not been insulated from hearing what the Ukrainians are finding as they return to places liberated from Russian occupation/terrorism/atrocity. I appreciate your posts about these topics, @JANFU and @Juks. I apologize for leaving out of my thanks other posters who have also been been posting news of the Russian atrocities in a sensitive manner in this thread. I do not mean to exclude you from my appreciation. It is important that the world know what the Russians did.
 
I have not been looking at any of the visuals, but have not been insulated from hearing what the Ukrainians are finding as they return to places liberated from Russian occupation/terrorism/atrocity. I appreciate your posts about these topics, @JANFU and @Juks. I apologize for leaving out of my thanks other posters who have also been been posting news of the Russian atrocities in a sensitive manner in this thread. I do not mean to exclude you from my appreciation. It is important that the world know what the Russians did.
Well I drew upon the X, Y thing, Miss Manner's / Ann Landers/ Dear Abby here.
Do not forget to thank yourself.
Everyone contributed
Some so much they up and left. ;)
 
From the Institute for the study of war

Key Takeaways
  1. Russian forces continued to capture territory in central Mariupol on April 2 and will likely capture the city within days.
  2. Ukrainian forces repelled several possibly large-scale Russian assaults in Donbas, claiming to destroy almost 70 Russian vehicles.
  3. Russian forces will likely require a lengthy operational pause to integrate reinforcements into existing force structures in eastern Ukraine and enable successful operations but appear unlikely to do so and will continue to bleed their forces in ineffective daily attacks.
  4. Russian forces in Izyum conducted an operational pause after successfully capturing the city on April 1 and will likely resume offensive operations to link up with Russian forces in Donbas in the coming days.
  5. Russia continued to withdraw forces from the Kyiv axis into Belarus and Russia. Ukrainian forces primarily conducted operations to sweep and clear previously Russian-occupied territory.
  6. Ukrainian forces likely repelled limited Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast.
  7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces have rendered two-thirds of the 75 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups it assesses have fought in Ukraine either temporarily or permanently combat ineffective.
DraftUkraineCoTApril2,2022.png
 
True if you are far enough from the actual radar but in flat country 50 meters (150') will be seen civilian let alone military radar if you dont stay far enough away. Helicopters have a rather large radar cross sections. Bring it down to under 50` and you will do much much better. Obviously hilly or mountainous county makes it much easier to hide below radar. The placement of the antenna vis a vis terrain is also a major factor,


Those kinds of flights can be some of the most thrilling
Again if you know where the radar installations are you can plan accordingly and avoid but if they are using mobile ones not nearly as easy. Did you sit in the pre flight briefings about the routes in and how they were chosen to reduce the possibilities of popping up on radar?
Like I said there is a good chance considering how incompetent things have been done so far on the Russian side that it would not be as difficult as it should be
As to the sound it would not be normal to fly so low so far from the actual battle areas. That would definitely attract attention, whether anyone would act on it is another story.
Birds are usually fairly easy to sort out as they fly much slower sometimes almost stationary and tend to move in ways that arent normal for aircraft

I have no clue what the territory is near there and am in no way suggesting it is impossible to fly under the radar but it isnt nearly as easy or casual a thing to do as most people think by watching movies.
Yes natural we sat in. Big known radar sites, fixed, were natural a matter of concern, but they are no guidance radar, all they can do, bring some jets.
Guidance radar, they might have you on the screen for a few seconds, but never long enough to fire and guide a rocket. Even big stations might have you for about 20 seconds only and then you are gone again. All they know something is going on.
The briefings and flight plan were more around terrain, how to use it, what to avoid, powerlines, bridges, was there any knowledge of bad boys with heat seekers, or those nasty little tracked AAA, with their super fast short range radar, 20 seconds and you are dead meat.
Everything short range was a concern 500 to a 1000m.
But I would say, those are part of the risk, playing cowboys and indians.
But honestly the risk to hit a power line or a tree with 200kmh, was far greater in our planning, those two jocks had to be very sharp, like Ralley drivers.

A little insane
 
From the Institute for the study of war

Key Takeaways
  1. Russian forces continued to capture territory in central Mariupol on April 2 and will likely capture the city within days.
  2. Ukrainian forces repelled several possibly large-scale Russian assaults in Donbas, claiming to destroy almost 70 Russian vehicles.
  3. Russian forces will likely require a lengthy operational pause to integrate reinforcements into existing force structures in eastern Ukraine and enable successful operations but appear unlikely to do so and will continue to bleed their forces in ineffective daily attacks.
  4. Russian forces in Izyum conducted an operational pause after successfully capturing the city on April 1 and will likely resume offensive operations to link up with Russian forces in Donbas in the coming days.
  5. Russia continued to withdraw forces from the Kyiv axis into Belarus and Russia. Ukrainian forces primarily conducted operations to sweep and clear previously Russian-occupied territory.
  6. Ukrainian forces likely repelled limited Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast.
  7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces have rendered two-thirds of the 75 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups it assesses have fought in Ukraine either temporarily or permanently combat ineffective.
View attachment 67383610
Is it me, or is the pink beginning to shrink?
 
From the Institute for the study of war

Key Takeaways
  1. Russian forces continued to capture territory in central Mariupol on April 2 and will likely capture the city within days.
  2. Ukrainian forces repelled several possibly large-scale Russian assaults in Donbas, claiming to destroy almost 70 Russian vehicles.
  3. Russian forces will likely require a lengthy operational pause to integrate reinforcements into existing force structures in eastern Ukraine and enable successful operations but appear unlikely to do so and will continue to bleed their forces in ineffective daily attacks.
  4. Russian forces in Izyum conducted an operational pause after successfully capturing the city on April 1 and will likely resume offensive operations to link up with Russian forces in Donbas in the coming days.
  5. Russia continued to withdraw forces from the Kyiv axis into Belarus and Russia. Ukrainian forces primarily conducted operations to sweep and clear previously Russian-occupied territory.
  6. Ukrainian forces likely repelled limited Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast.
  7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces have rendered two-thirds of the 75 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups it assesses have fought in Ukraine either temporarily or permanently combat ineffective.
View attachment 67383610
I wonder how much kit/prisoners Ukraine will capture? kt break downs, soldiers walks away
 
Fair enough. I don't think you have a radical departure from the curve as long as the West is still letting the oil flow and the Russians use the banks.
Russia has been very limited to bank access since this stuff started.
 
The videos of Ukrainian soldiers retaking towns and seeing the deaths caused by Russian troops are grim. These are war crimes committed by a people that just don’t give a damn.

This is real evil.


The war crimes trials are going to be gruesome. Like the trial of the worst possible serial killer imaginable.
 
What would be the reasoning for this?

a) Either to justify a further attack

or

b) Maybe to use this to run propaganda so people become more nationalistic? When people feel they are under attack they tend to look at the tribal leader as ruthless as he is. Human nature. I find it extremely odd that this happens the day the conscripts started.

Are any more theories someone else would like to add?

I will add c) Maybe the Ukrainians did it, but NATO told them to deny it in PUBLIC to not risk an escalation. Is that a possibility? When this news first aired most were blue checkmarks from Ukraine that were promoting it. Some tweets were rapidly deleted after and even the daily mail said it was the Ukrainians.



I will go with c. It is the only plausible explanation.
 
Ukrainian acquaintance's husband killed today. No other details.
 
I have been away for a while because elden ring thats why!!!! But here are my current observations, mariupol is holding out longer than thought, but russia has came close to ceasing operations there keeping them small, most likely to allow civilian evacuations, the exact same way russia did it in syria, demolish, allow civilians to flee, then demolish more.

The retreat from around kyiv is a mixed bag, some are calling it russia losing, but from what I have been hearing ukrainian defenses are barely hanging on, they have homefield and urban warfare advantage, but russia has been terrible at planning by trying to attack too many fronts at once. The ukrainians nor many western govts believe russia is leaving kyiv alone, but rather putting it as a later goal and unifying forces into smaller fronts which would also diminish any advantages ukraine has.

Basically russia did the lighting war approach without a lightning war, in a lightning war you attack from multiple fronts fast, not taking over all territory but rather destroying military infrastructure and command at a rate so fast the enemy can not counter, while securing just the routes needed for logistics to keep progressing. Russia spread out their troops in such a manner but tried to progress slowly and tried to avoid cvilian casualties and infrastructure damage.

Basically the last war to see urban combat like this was ww2, in whichthe unites states saw over half a million deaths fighting such combat, and other nations hit millions or tens of millions. What the true death toll is is unklnown as neither side will tell the truth, but it is clear the russians have admitted they have been tackling the war wrong the whole time.

The real question is how well will ukrainian defense do fighting a unified front in ukraine rather than fighting numerous splintered ones in urban combat?
 
The war crimes trials are going to be gruesome. Like the trial of the worst possible serial killer imaginable.
In absentia, unfortunately.

These videos of Ukrainians walking into pre-Russian-controlled villages are ****ing awful. Bodies of civilians, hands tied behind their backs, lying in the streets. I can’t not think of how the Nazis ramped up the killings of the Jews in the concentration camps as the allied forces neared.
 
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I have been away for a while because elden ring thats why!!!! But here are my current observations, mariupol is holding out longer than thought, but russia has came close to ceasing operations there keeping them small, most likely to allow civilian evacuations, the exact same way russia did it in syria, demolish, allow civilians to flee, then demolish more.

The retreat from around kyiv is a mixed bag, some are calling it russia losing, but from what I have been hearing ukrainian defenses are barely hanging on, they have homefield and urban warfare advantage, but russia has been terrible at planning by trying to attack too many fronts at once. The ukrainians nor many western govts believe russia is leaving kyiv alone, but rather putting it as a later goal and unifying forces into smaller fronts which would also diminish any advantages ukraine has.

Basically russia did the lighting war approach without a lightning war, in a lightning war you attack from multiple fronts fast, not taking over all territory but rather destroying military infrastructure and command at a rate so fast the enemy can not counter, while securing just the routes needed for logistics to keep progressing. Russia spread out their troops in such a manner but tried to progress slowly and tried to avoid cvilian casualties and infrastructure damage.

Basically the last war to see urban combat like this was ww2, in whichthe unites states saw over half a million deaths fighting such combat, and other nations hit millions or tens of millions. What the true death toll is is unklnown as neither side will tell the truth, but it is clear the russians have admitted they have been tackling the war wrong the whole time.

The real question is how well will ukrainian defense do fighting a unified front in ukraine rather than fighting numerous splintered ones in urban combat?
If you try to “avoid civilian casualties and infrastructure damage” on day one but kill civilians and destroy infrastructure for the next forty days, then you’re not really trying to avoid killing civilians and destroying infrastructure. All it means is that the opportunity for killing civilians and destroying infrastructure didn’t present itself on the first day.
 
In absentia, unfortunately.

These videos of Ukrainians walking into pre-Russian-controlled villages are ****ing awful. Bodies of civilians, hands tied behind their backs, lying in the streets. I can’t not think of how the Nazis ramped up the killings of the Jews in the concentration camps as the allied forces neared.
You are right. This is a time when good men question the existence of God.
 
If you try to “avoid civilian casualties and infrastructure damage” on day one but kill civilians and destroy infrastructure for the next forty days, then you’re not really trying to avoid killing civilians and destroying infrastructure. All it means is that the opportunity for killing civilians and destroying infrastructure didn’t present itself on the first day.
The first week the civilian casualties were actually low, as was infrastructure damage, by the second week it was ramping up then increased from there. For example the us killed between 1600-10k civilians and destroyed the city to mariupol levels just to defeat isis in raqqa, so it is well known civilian casualties in urban warfare will happen, and military casualties will also be sky high unless the city is leveled.

Russia did royally screw up, they tried to keep damage low while progressing slow, it allowed the ukrainians to retreat to urban combat centers, this was a mistake on russias part, if russia wanted to take it quick they should have, if they wanted to slow roll it they should have used the strategy they are just now shifting to, as they way they have chosen before recently was impossible to win without major civilian deaths, as well as heavy military casualties all around.
 
"Ukraine’s Defense Ministry posted a video early Sunday and accused Russian forces of executing civilians in a suburb of the capital, where bodies in civilian clothes dotted the streets in the wake of the Russian withdrawal.

In the footage, three bodies in civilian clothing are seen clustered on the side of the road in the suburb, Bucha. A white cloth binds the hands of one body behind its back, and a dried pool of blood spreads out from the head.

'Local civilians were being executed arbitrarily, some with hands tied behind their backs,' the ministry wrote in a tweet accompanying the video. The statement added that the scenes were a 'New Srebrenica,' a reference to a 1995 massacre during the Bosnian war.

Russian officials did not immediately respond to the allegations. The New York Times was unable to independently verify the assertions by Ukraine’s Defense Ministry and other officials.
The video opened with images of trucks swerving past bodies in the road. It then showed a scene that also had been photographed by Agence France-Presse and was shared in a separate post from a senior adviser to Ukraine’s president.

'These people were not in the military,' the adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, said on Twitter. 'They had no weapons. They posed no threat.'

A photograph by Agence France-Presse showed three bodies on the side of a road, one with hands apparently tied behind the back in Bucha, northwest of Kyiv, on
Members of Ukraine’s parliament had earlier posted similar footage and images. 'I am shaking,' wrote one lawmaker.

Other images circulating on social media — and reposted by a unit within Ukraine’s ministry of public information — purported to show other groups of dead civilians in Bucha, including at least one whose arms were visibly bound behind him. The Times was not able to independently verify the photo.

Britain’s foreign secretary called the reports 'abhorrent' and said her government was helping to collect evidence to support an investigation into war crimes. Executing civilians would violate the Geneva Conventions, a series of treaties governing the wartime treatment of civilians, prisoners of war and others.
'Appalled by atrocities in Bucha and other towns in Ukraine,' Liz Truss, the British foreign secretary, wrote on Twitter. 'Those responsible will be held to account.'

The allegations emerged after Ukraine’s military on Saturday moved into Bucha, a key town on the west bank of the Dnipro River — which divides Kyiv — and days after Russian forces had sacked it as they retreated northward.

The mayor of the town, Anatoly Fedoruk, told Agence France-Presse that about 280 residents had been killed during the Russian invasion and occupation.

Times reporters counted six bodies of civilians on the streets and sidewalks of Bucha. It was unclear under what circumstances they had died, but the discarded packaging of a Russian military ration was lying beside one man who had been shot in the head."

 
Actually the flying low and being invisible on radar is partially a myth. Depending on how close you are to the actual radar antenna it can detect aircraft pretty much right down to the ground. Helicopters tend to be very noisy and flying extremely low would tend attract attention. Normally helicopters flow low but not ground hugging low especially in their own airspace. Not saying impossible but they would have to plan the route based on placement of radar sites. I would assume Russia is operating mobile ones at least in the occupied areas of Ukraine making that harder. Mind you Russia has shown some rather astonishing and unexpected levels of incompetence so maybe not that hard after all
In Vietnam they flew choppers so low and so fast that as soon as you heard them they were past you. I'm sure today's choppers have more speed and capabilities yet than those of over 50 years ago. Didn't the chopper that sent the Seal Team to Bin Laden's hide out have stealth capabilities?
 
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