4/8/21
Vladimir Putin is trying to force the United States and the EU to put pressure on Ukraine's government. The Russian strongman's experiences since 2014 make him think he just might succeed, DW's Konstantin Eggert writes. Vladimir Putin is irritated: There's Joe Biden's recent "Putin is a killer" ABC interview, the painful sanctions imposed on the Russian aerospace industry by the White House in early March and, just as important, the latest moves by the administration of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. In recent weeks, Ukrainian officials have talked about the futility of further talks on the implementation of the 2015 Minsk accords, which were supposed to stop the fighting in the Donbass region of Eastern Ukraine. Among the doubters is former President Leonid Kravchuk, Kyiv's official delegate to the Minsk agreements' working group. In addition, the Ukrainian government has created the "Crimean Platform" — a long-term project aimed at putting maximum international political and diplomatic pressure on Moscow to return the peninsula. Putin is infamously loath to be seen as weak and cornered. His reaction to such situations is invariably one of bravado and to intimidate his opponents. The Russian army's buildup on Ukraine's borders, accompanied by the hysteria in Russian state media, looks like such a response.
His "fortress Russia" attitude will also help to distract attention from the fate of the opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who is seriously ill in jail. At first glance, the Kremlin seems to be warning Kyiv to go back to the Minsk accords. However, Putin should have realized by now that no government in Kyiv will ever fulfill the 2015 agreements. Most Ukrainian politicians and the general public see them as deeply humiliating. The reaction from the United States is very different from that of 2015. President Joe Biden has called Zelenskiy and assured him of unequivocal US support. The State Department has demanded explanations from Moscow about the activities on the border. If Putin were to withdraw troops from the Ukrainian border, it would look like he was caving to US pressure. Launching a full-scale assault from the Russian-controlled areas of Donbass toward the Azov Sea and the water-starved Crimea may be his dream. But it would mean many Russian servicemen lost in a bloody battle with the US-armed Ukrainian army plus massive Western sanctions — a risky and potentially unpopular move. The Kremlin counts on Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron to lean on the Ukrainians to make new concessions to Moscow. Putin is convinced that the Europeans will, as before, avoid confronting him. Putin is readying himself to test the US's resolve. Biden had better be ready.
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