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Vladimir Putin’s Busy, Bloody, and Expensive 2019

Rogue Valley

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Vladimir Putin’s Busy, Bloody, and Expensive 2019

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Defense-One
12/28/18

Ukraine
Both Russian and Ukrainian officials have been forecasting an increase in hostility in 2019, each preemptively blaming the other. On Dec. 17, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia believes Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko was preparing some sort of “provocation” near the end of the month. Lavrov’s statement, and similar ones from other Russian officials, “could be interpreted as indications and warnings of Moscow preparing the information space, i.e. setting expectations of renewed violence in the coming weeks,” Michael Kofman, a senior research scientist at CNA Corp, wrote in a recent blog post. “Almost every year there is a sizable artillery duel that takes place after the holiday truce (clashes likely to resume after the orthodox new year on January 14th), and so a notable escalation in violence is likely in January.” Yet he also said that a major Russian assault on Ukraine, one designed to seize and hold large areas of territory, is “improbable.” A more dire view can be found in a recent analysis from Catherine Harris, Mason Clark, and Nicole Geis with the Institute of the Study of War. They conclude that Moscow will likely “escalate militarily against Ukraine imminently. Russia is setting military conditions to prepare its forces for open conflict with Ukraine.” They note in particular recent Russian statements about the possibility of Ukrainian use of chemical weapons.

Moscow has been ratcheting up the disinformation rhetoric. This is often an indicator that the Kremlin intends to use the disinformation rhetoric as an invasion casus-belli.

Related: Russia in Review: Russia Poised to Escalate Ukraine Campaign
 

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Thirsty Crimea
Experts also pointed to the possibility that Russian forces could launch a land grab operation from the illegally annexed Crimean peninsula. The Black Sea Fleet has its headquarters there and the Russians recently deployed the S-400 anti-aircraft radar and missile battery to the peninsula as well. But the most important factor in the future of Crimea is the acute shortage of water, a situation that’s going to get much worse by 2040. Crimea derives 86 percent of its water from the Dnieper-Crimea canal in Ukraine. In 2014, the government of Ukraine cut off water to the annexed peninsula, exacerbating the shortage. While Russia has been building infrastructure to connect Crimea to Russia, such as a large bridge, there is no easy or cheap replacement for the water coming from Ukraine. “A military operation to secure water supply for Crimea, currently a low-probability but high-impact scenario, would require Russian invasion into the Kherson region of Ukraine, potentially under a hybrid scenario under the pretence of assisting the oppressed Russian speakers in the region, reminiscent of the Donbass conflict’s scenario in 2014,” Jane’s Intelligence Weekly noted in July. Michael Carpenter, a former deputy assistant defense secretary with responsibility for Russia and Ukraine, says that the Dnieper Crimea canal could be Putin’s prime target in Ukraine in 2019.

“One of the military options on the table that is most likely to be executed is a limited incursion north from Crimea into [the] Kherson oblast to seize the canal that carries fresh water from the Dnieper river to Crimea. Without this water, Crimea’s agriculture sector can’t survive,” wrote Carpenter, who is now senior director of the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement. But a military offensive to take the canal wouldn’t be a quiet one, notes Kofman. “In scope, this is about a 65-70 km push, which is equivalent to the depth of territory seized in the Donbas region. Kherson may be relatively easy to cut off, but it would require a substantial number of forces to effect this kind of operation and earn Russia an entire new host of problems.” Ukraine will hold presidential elections at the end of March. Experts were split on whether that represented ideal timing for such an assault (Carpenter) or terrible timing (Kofman) since an assault could provide the beleaguered Poroshenko government in Kyiv a justification for postponing the elections.

Moscow refused to pay its Crimea water bill. So the Crimea Canal water flow from Kherson oblast was shut off.

Related: Crimea water crisis resolution unlikely, risk of further Russian incursion into Ukraine rises in three-year outlook
 

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Moscow refused to pay its Crimea water bill. So the Crimea Canal water flow from Kherson oblast was shut off.

Related: Crimea water crisis resolution unlikely, risk of further Russian incursion into Ukraine rises in three-year outlook

Only thing I can find researching says nothing about moscow refusing to pay the water bill, infact crimea was behind and ukraine flat out refused payment from moscow to restore services. They are currently and also have built aqueducts and other water projects, but are relying on water being trucked in from russia to supplement it, which is not enough to keep their agriculture sector going.

Seems to me like they are trying to stave out crimea to punish them for voting to leave, since ukraine considers crimea theirs, and if that is how they treat their people, no wonder regions are breaking away, it seems ukraine lit that fire and all russia had to do was walk over and slightly fan the flames.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal
 

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Only thing I can find researching says nothing about moscow refusing to pay the water bill, infact crimea was behind and ukraine flat out refused payment from moscow to restore services. They are currently and also have built aqueducts and other water projects, but are relying on water being trucked in from russia to supplement it, which is not enough to keep their agriculture sector going.

Seems to me like they are trying to stave out crimea to punish them for voting to leave, since ukraine considers crimea theirs, and if that is how they treat their people, no wonder regions are breaking away, it seems ukraine lit that fire and all russia had to do was walk over and slightly fan the flames.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal

Yup, and Poroshenko also lost a few ships in his ill-fated attempt to start a war and get NATO to fight for his bankrupt country. Looks like it was an even more expensive enterprise for him.
 

Rogue Valley

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Only thing I can find researching says nothing about moscow refusing to pay the water bill, infact crimea was behind and ukraine flat out refused payment from moscow to restore services.

You don't think Ukraine is going to supply water for free to the occupier of its land do you?

Geezuz lol. Some folks will do headstands to defend Moscow.
 

beerftw

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You don't think Ukraine is going to supply water for free to the occupier of its land do you?

Geezuz lol. Some folks will do headstands to defend Moscow.

Russia already offered to pay what they owe and continue to pay, ukraine refused. Ukraine even built a permanent dam to halt water to that region knowing it had been reliant on it for decades. It is literally them trying to starve out the farmlands of water as a means of punishing russia, however it is not punishing russia at all, rather it is punishing crimea and will do nothing more than cause even further rebellions among ukraine.


Fyi if you do not know cutting off water supplies like that is a major human rights violation, especially when payment was offered but the host country refused, therefore ukraine is committing massive human rights violations and violations of international law by doing so for political reasons.
 

Rogue Valley

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Fyi if you do not know cutting off water supplies like that is a major human rights violation

Without Russia's illegal invasion and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea oblast, there would be no water issue yes?

You always conveniently ignore the source of all such Crimea/Donbas problems, which is Moscow's aggrandizement of a neighbors sovereign lands.

As I've stated and demonstrated previously, you're a defender/apologist of the Putin regime.
 

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Without Russia's illegal invasion and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea oblast, there would be no water issue yes?

You always conveniently ignore the source of all such Crimea/Donbas problems, which is Moscow's aggrandizement of a neighbors sovereign lands.

As I've stated and demonstrated previously, you're a defender/apologist of the Putin regime.

You are trying to justify blatant human rights violations on epic proportions, on levels even some of earths worst dictators would not commit. Also given you quoted me twice I assume you figured out I already linked a source.


To put it simply the money was offered, the behind on payments existed before russia annexed them but only became a problem with russian annexation. Ukraine is simply trying to starve them out, the problem is it is doing nothing but making crimea more hostile to ukraine.
 

Rogue Valley

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To put it simply the money was offered.

Simply put again, where are your source links?

No one is taking your say-so for anything other than Kremlin agitprop.
 

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Simply put again, where are your source links?

No one is taking your say-so for anything other than Kremlin agitprop.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal


It was already posted as the only source found on the issue, and it was in the link mentions that moscow offered to pay but ukraine flat out refused to accept payment.

You could have researched this yourself as well, I feel you are intentionally dodging researching anything that contradicts your mindset, and would rather only use sources that say what you want to hear.
 

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal

It was already posted as the only source found on the issue, and it was in the link mentions that moscow offered to pay but ukraine flat out refused to accept payment. You could have researched this yourself as well, I feel you are intentionally dodging researching anything that contradicts your mindset, and would rather only use sources that say what you want to hear.

There is no source-link supporting that Wikipedia assertion. No one here simply believes either you or a Wikipedia article that can be edited.
 

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There is no source-link supporting that Wikipedia assertion. No one here simply believes either you or a Wikipedia article that can be edited.

Since you have no source link why should you be believed either, so which is it link you disagree with or your own no link at all, since the link you already provided mentions it in the title but nowhere in the article.
 

Rogue Valley

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Since you have no source link why should you be believed either, so which is it link you disagree with or your own no link at all, since the link you already provided mentions it in the title but nowhere in the article.

Why should Ukraine make life easier for the Russian occupation authorities/military?

Moscow saw fit to spend many billions on the Crimea Bridge rather than on improving water supplies?

They just don't give a ****. Moscow now has a huge A2D2 naval facility/missile base in the Black Sea. That's all they care about.
 

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Why should Ukraine make life easier for the Russian occupation authorities/military?

Moscow saw fit to spend many billions on the Crimea Bridge rather than on improving water supplies?

They just don't give a ****. Moscow now has a huge A2D2 naval facility/missile base in the Black Sea. That's all they care about.

Here is the thing, denial of water is one of the biggest human rights violations, besides that ukraine pretty much cemented that crimea is never coming back, you do not treat what you claim is yours like that, even if russia let ukraine have crimea crimea would fight their own war to prevent ukraine from having it back. Looking at how ukraine treats all their minorities, it seems this is a problem with ukraine thinking vinegar is better than honey for trapping flies. You can not try and claim they are your property while going out of your way to oppress them, they will never ever come back and just proves russia is not at fault as much as ukraine, as those regions were stoked by russia to rebel, but the rebelious side was already long there by ukraine.
 

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Here is the thing, denial of water is one of the biggest human rights violations, besides that ukraine pretty much cemented that crimea is never coming back, you do not treat what you claim is yours like that, even if russia let ukraine have crimea crimea would fight their own war to prevent ukraine from having it back. Looking at how ukraine treats all their minorities, it seems this is a problem with ukraine thinking vinegar is better than honey for trapping flies. You can not try and claim they are your property while going out of your way to oppress them, they will never ever come back and just proves russia is not at fault as much as ukraine, as those regions were stoked by russia to rebel, but the rebelious side was already long there by ukraine.

Since you have no source link why should you be believed either, so which is it link you disagree with or your own no link at all, since the link you already provided mentions it in the title but nowhere in the article.

Your claim remains unsupported.

Meanwhile and throughout, and according to the Geneva Convention, the occupying power carries responsibility for the situation in the territory it occupied. The Convention defines clearly that the international community holds the occupying country fully responsible for providing for the vital activity of the population of the occupied territory. So this is a problem for Russia and Putin who's full of butt hurt about it and belly aching besides.

word-image-42.jpeg

The situation in the occupied peninsula would be better if Russia stopped spending the scarce resources on the growing needs of the military infrastructure and military personnel there. Photo: investigator.org.ua


As of the beginning of 2017, the population of Crimea is 2 340 92, according to the local statistics. But there is no data on the amount of Russian soldiers, the members of their families and Russian authorities sent to business trips to Crimea, as well as Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Federal Security Service [FSB].

Volodymyr Yelchenko, the Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the United Nations, is confident that the situation in the occupied peninsula would be better if Russia stopped spending the scarce resources on the growing needs of the military infrastructure and military personnel there. He is also confident that all the water problems can be solved by the de-occupation of Crimea and that for Russia the water question is another instrument of propaganda.

The water situation is another catastrophe caused by the occupation of Crimea. The peninsula already faces a humanitarian crisis – the pro-Ukrainian population is persecuted, and the Crimean Tatars, the indigenous people of Crimea, are especially in danger. Crimea was dependent on Ukraine’s resources to a large extent and now it faces a shortage of them, the greatest example, after water, being electricity. As Russia is exploiting the peninsula as a huge military base, an environmental disaster is more than possible in the nearest years. So far, economic sanctions by the EU and US have been the greatest instrument of pressure on Russia.


Occupied Crimea is running out of water |Euromaidan Press |


There are decreasing water supplies throughout the region. When Ukraine made the temporary dam into a permanent one it was looking out for the interests and welfare of the population it has authority over and that do in fact live under the Ukrainian government.
 

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DwTwRJWWoAE-n7m.jpg


37 Ukrainians and Tatars were arrested for political reasons in occupied Crimea in 2018.
 

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Your claim remains unsupported.

As I told him.

Meanwhile and throughout, and according to the Geneva Convention, the occupying power carries responsibility for the situation in the territory it occupied.

Thank you for reminding this clown of that fact. The Putin apologists always conveniently forget to factor-in Moscow's responsibilities as the occupying power.

And in addition to the water situation, all referendums/elections held by the occupying power in occupied territory are null and void according to the Geneva Conventions.
 

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Your claim remains unsupported.

Meanwhile and throughout, and according to the Geneva Convention, the occupying power carries responsibility for the situation in the territory it occupied. The Convention defines clearly that the international community holds the occupying country fully responsible for providing for the vital activity of the population of the occupied territory. So this is a problem for Russia and Putin who's full of butt hurt about it and belly aching besides.

word-image-42.jpeg

The situation in the occupied peninsula would be better if Russia stopped spending the scarce resources on the growing needs of the military infrastructure and military personnel there. Photo: investigator.org.ua


As of the beginning of 2017, the population of Crimea is 2 340 92, according to the local statistics. But there is no data on the amount of Russian soldiers, the members of their families and Russian authorities sent to business trips to Crimea, as well as Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Federal Security Service [FSB].

Volodymyr Yelchenko, the Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the United Nations, is confident that the situation in the occupied peninsula would be better if Russia stopped spending the scarce resources on the growing needs of the military infrastructure and military personnel there. He is also confident that all the water problems can be solved by the de-occupation of Crimea and that for Russia the water question is another instrument of propaganda.

The water situation is another catastrophe caused by the occupation of Crimea. The peninsula already faces a humanitarian crisis – the pro-Ukrainian population is persecuted, and the Crimean Tatars, the indigenous people of Crimea, are especially in danger. Crimea was dependent on Ukraine’s resources to a large extent and now it faces a shortage of them, the greatest example, after water, being electricity. As Russia is exploiting the peninsula as a huge military base, an environmental disaster is more than possible in the nearest years. So far, economic sanctions by the EU and US have been the greatest instrument of pressure on Russia.


Occupied Crimea is running out of water |Euromaidan Press |


There are decreasing water supplies throughout the region. When Ukraine made the temporary dam into a permanent one it was looking out for the interests and welfare of the population it has authority over and that do in fact live under the Ukrainian government.

Considering I had a link to mine it seems far more supported than you and him, if you like you can link where moscow refused to pay. but neither of you have.


In terms of russia taking care of their people in crimea they have been building reservoirs and pipelines to source in water from elsewhere and better conserve rain water, however denying water is one of the worst human rights abuses there is, it does not give ukraine any high ground and just shows they are worse than putin while using annexation as a justification for human rights abuses. ukraine could easily have jacked up the rates and russia would have paid while finding other sources for water, but just straight shutting them off is a low and shows ukraine holds no human decency and is willing to torture people it claims are theirs just to get revenge,.
 

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As I told him.



Thank you for reminding this clown of that fact. The Putin apologists always conveniently forget to factor-in Moscow's responsibilities as the occupying power.

And in addition to the water situation, all referendums/elections held by the occupying power in occupied territory are null and void according to the Geneva Conventions.

You still have not provided a link, lease do I already have.
 

Rogue Valley

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You still have not provided a link, lease do I already have.

Worthless without an original source link. Anyone can edit a Wikipedia article.
 

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Considering I had a link to mine it seems far more supported than you and him, if you like you can link where moscow refused to pay. but neither of you have.


In terms of russia taking care of their people in crimea they have been building reservoirs and pipelines to source in water from elsewhere and better conserve rain water, however denying water is one of the worst human rights abuses there is, it does not give ukraine any high ground and just shows they are worse than putin while using annexation as a justification for human rights abuses. ukraine could easily have jacked up the rates and russia would have paid while finding other sources for water, but just straight shutting them off is a low and shows ukraine holds no human decency and is willing to torture people it claims are theirs just to get revenge,.


Putin Fanboys have their own take on the situation which is accepted because the take over there is easy to shoot down, i.e., to counter then move on.

My link in scrolling points out Ukraine is hard pressed for water so you're spinning your wheels. Crimea has water for drinking only, so the problem is severe. Crimea has a paltry water capacity of only 380 cubic meters per person per year, whereas 1,700 cubic meters per year is considered the UN norm per person. Global climate change has made water more scarce in Ukraine to include Crimea and throughout the region generally. Putin's money offer is an attempt to extort scarce water from Kiev to Putin's benefit in his own occupied Crimea.

After Putin seized and occupied Ukraine Kiev remade a temporary dam into a permanent dam to provide much needed water to the population and industry of Ukraine it continues to control and which remain out of the long reach of Putin's short arm. Russian possession and occupation of Ukraine has overburdened its sources of water and electricity and is negatively impacting agriculture in an already trying farming region. Putin's occupation of Crimea has swelled the number of people in Crimea who were struggling already to access and manage water. Putin's military equipment and the construction of a bridge to Russia in the occupied territory have created new problems of an enormous magnitude in respect of the local population.

We know however that to the Putin Fanboys the little man in Moscow can do no wrong.
 

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Only thing I can find researching says nothing about moscow refusing to pay the water bill, infact crimea was behind and ukraine flat out refused payment from moscow to restore services. They are currently and also have built aqueducts and other water projects, but are relying on water being trucked in from russia to supplement it, which is not enough to keep their agriculture sector going.

Seems to me like they are trying to stave out crimea to punish them for voting to leave, since ukraine considers crimea theirs, and if that is how they treat their people, no wonder regions are breaking away, it seems ukraine lit that fire and all russia had to do was walk over and slightly fan the flames.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal

RV stated reason for Ukraine's cut off of water supplies was a lie / fake news. It was a disgusting unilateral act designed to cause human harm but nothing to do with non payment of bills.

Here's what RV's own linked article said about it, neatly avoiding Kiev's barbarism:

'In May 2014, shortly after the Russian annexation, Ukraine built a dyke across the canal in the south of Kherson region, cutting off the supply of fresh water to Crimea'.
 

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RV stated reason for Ukraine's cut off of water supplies was a lie / fake news. It was a disgusting unilateral act designed to cause human harm but nothing to do with non payment of bills.

Here's what RV's own linked article said about it, neatly avoiding Kiev's barbarism:

'In May 2014, shortly after the Russian annexation, Ukraine built a dyke across the canal in the south of Kherson region, cutting off the supply of fresh water to Crimea'.

End the illegal occupation and the dikes will be removed.
 
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