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Very encouraging signs for the 2022 midterms ...

NatMorton

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... and while much can happen in a year, using history is a guide 2022 could become a historic defeat for Democrats. This is from a former Clinton/Bloomberg advisor ...

 

DataPoint

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I think the GOP may has much as a ten seat majority in the House and the Dems increase their lead to 53 in the Senate.

That will allow the Dem candidate in 2024 to paint the GOP once as the 'do nothing' party blocking progress.

The breaker events will be, of course, Covid and the economy, and if the first becomes much less a threat and the latter does well, that will help the Dems in 2022.
 

independentusa

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... and while much can happen in a year, using history is a guide 2022 could become a historic defeat for Democrats. This is from a former Clinton/Bloomberg advisor ...

All it takes for the GOp to cement their win is more voter suppression and gerrymandering and they are doing that in every state they control. And in the end all we will earn as a nation id what every gopers wants and that is fascism. Makes Gopers so damn happy. The only problem is many that vote won't see the axe fall on programs that help them until it happens. Say good bye to all of your Social Security and Medicare all of you older white Americans who will vote for the GOP. Hope you have enough savings to live on.
 

Phys251

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DataPoint

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The GOP, if they get the House, will be stupid enough to try to cut SS and Medicare.

The Dems will run on covid, the economy, saving SS and Medicare, and the Trumpers are insurgents in 2024.
 

Ikari

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Yeah, it's possible. Usually the sitting President's party does lose in the midterms, so it could happen. I think bad things happen if the GOP takes over in their current incarnation of their party.
 

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IMO primarying some of the Dem dead weight could go a long way to help Democratic voter enthusiasm.
 

Mr Person

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Righties would be wise not to get too excited. Especially not Trumpists. Pretty much the only things you've got right now are (1) that historically the President's party doesn't do so well in midterms, (2) temporary upset about how Afghanistan played out. And yet the non-Trumpist right seems to have done a much better job of being honest about the narrow slice of Afghanistan that might conceivably be blamed on Biden and about the difficulty of doing it any better with less than 13 more dead soldiers.

(Got the slightest clue how many it would take to secure Kabul, a city of about 4.5 million people? Know how many more would die if they were spread as targets all around? Nevermind the question of "hold on...how fair is it to blame Biden for not getting every single American out; wtf were they doing still sitting there with their thumbs up their asses?" It's only the interpreters and people who helped us where proper blame lies, and that blame almost entirely lies on the Bush, Obama, and Trump)

But you also have an incredibly significant negative not usually there: Trump's influence.

All those things that made a sufficient amount of people strongly anti-Trump to vote Biden are still there. Yet, Trump's primary picks don't seem to be doing well anymore. So you may have some gains in non-Trumpists GOP politicians - they did better than Trump in 2020 as it is - but you're still going to be running a whole bunch of Trumpist bastard scumbags.

Being pissed at Biden over Afghanistan is not going to cause someone who chose not to vote for Trump to vote for a Trumpist congressman in 2022. That doesn't compute.


Meanwhile, Dems have needed infrastructure bills cooking and unless they manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by torpedoing both (hello Manchin; hello super-progressives), that's going to have them riding high for a while.

Because we actually need massive infrastructure work, and you know it.
 

LostInSeattle

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... and while much can happen in a year, using history is a guide 2022 could become a historic defeat for Democrats. This is from a former Clinton/Bloomberg advisor ...

I have to ask, what is encouraging about the GOP retaking power? I'm not a big fan of the Democrats, but look at how the two previous GOP administrations left the country.
 

NatMorton

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All it takes for the GOp to cement their win is more voter suppression and gerrymandering and they are doing that in every state they control. And in the end all we will earn as a nation id what every gopers wants and that is fascism. Makes Gopers so damn happy. The only problem is many that vote won't see the axe fall on programs that help them until it happens. Say good bye to all of your Social Security and Medicare all of you older white Americans who will vote for the GOP. Hope you have enough savings to live on.
You must find all that "voter suppression and gerrymandering" awfully frustrating.

And I have never planned on having SS for retirement. I'm not poor, and I suspect means testing is coming.
 

NatMorton

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I have to ask, what is encouraging about the GOP retaking power? I'm not a big fan of the Democrats, but look at how the two previous GOP administrations left the country.
The Democrats not being in power and there needing to be some level of bipartisanship to get things done.
 

The AntiDonald

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You must find all that "voter suppression and gerrymandering" awfully frustrating.

And I have never planned on having SS for retirement. I'm not poor, and I suspect means testing is coming.
That seems to be the typical conservative thought process. I've got mine, who cares about everyone else. I've heard statements from republicans like "poor people don't deserve health care". They give the money to rich people and businesses, claim it will trickle down, it never does.
 

NatMorton

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That seems to be the typical conservative thought process. I've got mine, who cares about everyone else. I've heard statements from republicans like "poor people don't deserve health care". They give the money to rich people and businesses, claim it will trickle down, it never does.
Typical liberal thought process -- not really thinking, just attacking.

I said I haven't planned on SS because I think means testing is coming. I said nothing about wanting to implement means testing. I said nothing about poor people not deserving assistance. I said nothing about giving money to rich people.

Slow down. Think more. Attack less.
 

noonereal

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The breaker events will be, of course, Covid and the economy, and if the first becomes much less a threat and the latter does well, that will help the Dems in 2022.

I don't know about this. I think a spike in Covid pre election would help Joe. No one wants Trump at the top during a pandemic but the hard nosed cultists.
Been there did that, it was a massive fail and we all know it was, we lived it.
 

LostInSeattle

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The Democrats not being in power and there needing to be some level of bipartisanship to get things done.
I may missed it but when have Republicans acted in a bipartisan manner since 2008?

Also, you didn't answer my question. I get that you don't like the Democratic Party, but what have the Republicans done for the country during the last two GOP presidencies?
 

The AntiDonald

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Typical liberal thought process -- not really thinking, just attacking.

I said I haven't planned on SS because I think means testing is coming. I said nothing about wanting to implement means testing. I said nothing about poor people not deserving assistance. I said nothing about giving money to rich people.

Slow down. Think more. Attack less.
I surely don't know your exact situation. But you said, "And I have never planned on having SS for retirement. I'm not poor, and I suspect means testing is coming. So in other words, you got yours. The rest can be read between the lines.

 

Jay59

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... and while much can happen in a year, using history is a guide 2022 could become a historic defeat for Democrats. This is from a former Clinton/Bloomberg advisor ...
There is more. Clinton and Obama were both strong personalities who could command attention. Biden is the opposite.

Don't think it's that bad, the numbers still favor the left but there's plenty of time left.
This is a matter of point in time versus trend analysis. Right now, Biden is just off his honeymoon period so the numbers have not had time to tumble.

I think the GOP may has much as a ten seat majority in the House and the Dems increase their lead to 53 in the Senate.
This is extremely optimistic. Democrats are going to lose 5-6 seats in the House just front redistricting. Gaining multiple seats in the Senate is a longshot. They could easily lose multiple seats.

That will allow the Dem candidate in 2024 to paint the GOP once as the 'do nothing' party blocking progress.
They will try that regardless. It takes a strong President to bring it off and Democrats don't have one.

The breaker events will be, of course, Covid and the economy, and if the first becomes much less a threat and the latter does well, that will help the Dems in 2022.
COVID is already winding down. That horse will no longer be around to ride this time next year.

The economy is a real factor and the leading indicators are not favorable

If the Democrats lose the House, it will be because of right-wing gerrymandering and voter suppression.
Clichéman strikes again!😱

Because we actually need massive infrastructure work, and you know it.
Then why did you not push for infrastructure in the so-called infrastructure bill?

I may missed it but when have Republicans acted in a bipartisan manner since 2008?
FIRST STEP comes to mind.
 

swing_voter

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... and while much can happen in a year, using history is a guide 2022 could become a historic defeat for Democrats. This is from a former Clinton/Bloomberg advisor ...



Historically, midterms have always been won by the party out of power.

There must be a huge group of voters who like Washington gridlocked so they always vote for the party out of power.

If the Republicans don't win the house and senate, I'll be speechless.

.
 

NatMorton

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I may missed it but when have Republicans acted in a bipartisan manner since 2008?

Also, you didn't answer my question. I get that you don't like the Democratic Party, but what have the Republicans done for the country during the last two GOP presidencies?
You didn't miss it because I didn't say it.

And you are correct, I like Democrats even less than I like Republicans. For the most part, I find their policies idiotic on their good days.
 

NatMorton

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I surely don't know your exact situation. But you said, "And I have never planned on having SS for retirement. I'm not poor, and I suspect means testing is coming. So in other words, you got yours. The rest can be read between the lines.
Or, I have mine and what's left will be there for others.

Again, think before you type. Your posts will read less like partisan yahooism if you do.
 

OpportunityCost

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Don't think it's that bad, the numbers still favor the left but there's plenty of time left.

If you look at Presidential approval rating, if Joe is underwater by more than 2 points, the Republicans are going to gain seats. He is the face of your party, like it or not.

Joe has gone from +8 on Ipsos to +1.
USA Today has him at -14.
NPR, yes NPR has Joe at -8.
ABC News WaPo? -7.

Don't sputter but Trump....it has nothing to do with the conversation---Joe Biden's numbers are going to hurt the Democrat party in the mid terms. Because he is the face of the party and he sets most of the policy agenda.
 

LostInSeattle

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You didn't miss it because I didn't say it.
I meant that I missed any semblance of bipartisanship on the behalf of Republicans over the last 15 years or so. In fact, I have seen ample evidence of obstructionism and other destructive non-bipartisanship but the GOP.

However, you did indicate that bipartisanship was reason you wanted Republicans to return to power, so I am asking you in what way you think the GOP being in power will enhance bipartisanship.
And you are correct, I like Democrats even less than I like Republicans. For the most part, I find their policies idiotic on their good days.
I'll ask the question a third time: what has the GOP accomplished during the last two Republican presidencies?
 

Phys251

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... must be nice to have one's excuses ready a full year in advance.

If Republican legislators don't gerrymander, this won't be a problem, will it?
 
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