Venezuela is crumbling

[ecofarm]

Since becoming president five months ago, Mr Maduro has routinely cited vague international conspiracies by capitalist plotters, or even cartoon superheroes, for Venezuela’s mounting problems that range from a lack of toilet paper and national electricity blackouts to one of the highest murder rates in the world...

Deflecting blame for domestic problems on external forces is a time-honoured tradition in Venezuela’s so-called 21st century socialist revolution that routinely thumbs its nose at the US.


But that is especially so now that Mr Maduro has made little headway in correcting the economic distortions bequeathed by Hugo Chávez, his charismatic predecessor, a failure that has also left many wondering how much longer the situation can go on.

Does the link work? Perhaps someone knows how to link to FT.

Nicolás Maduro seeks to deflect blame as Venezuela’s woes mount - FT.com


Inflation at 45%. the country will implode in probably within a year. The article mentioned internal political fights and the precarious position of Chavez's unfortunate heir.

 

[ecofarm]

Just wanted to say:

Told you so.

 

[Mr Person]

Well, naturally. This is what happens when a totalitarian regime is propped up by high oil prices. They drop, regime fails.

 

[ecofarm]

Well, naturally. This is what happens when a totalitarian regime is propped up by high oil prices. They drop, regime fails.

Global oil price is rather irrelevant if one sells gas domestically at $.02/gal for political power. There is no global price to make that work. Chavez sold the country down the river for fortune and fame.

But I understand the context of an undiversified economy. Chavez's looting of national oil resources for political power took place in the worst possible circumstance.

 

[Mr Person]

Global oil price is rather irrelevant if one sells gas domestically at $.02/gal for political power. There is no global price to make that work. Chavez sold the country down the river for fortune and fame.

But I understand the context of an undiversified economy. Chavez's looting of national oil resources for political power took place in the worst possible circumstance.

Bolded: unless you're using your nationalized oil reserves to both sell cheaply to one's people and the rest on a lucrative world market, to make up for both the lost revenue of selling cheaply to please the people and the damage of other poor economic planning decisions. If world market price drops past a point determined by how much economic damage your policies are doing to the rest of your country's GDP, then you've got a problem.

Oil has made up for about 95% of its exports and is about 50% of it's GDP, though I can't quote numbers over specific times.

 

[lefty louie]

Watch, VZ will install a President we approve of and oil prices will rise.

 

[ecofarm]

Bolded: unless you're using your nationalized oil reserves to both sell cheaply to one's people and the rest on a lucrative world market, to make up for both the lost revenue of selling cheaply to please the people and the damage of other poor economic planning decisions. If world market price drops past a point determined by how much economic damage your policies are doing to the rest of your country's GDP, then you've got a problem.

Oil has made up for about 95% of its exports and is about 50% of it's GDP, though I can't quote numbers over specific times.

I agree but the cause is his theft. Prices can drop and a country even more dependent survives. It's not really "naturally" when virtual treason compounds a difficulty to a crisis. Oil prices have recovered yet Venezuela has not.

We could compare any number of similarly dependent countries.

While your characterization of the Chavez regime as "totalitarian" is clearly anti Chavez, your "naturally" seemed to excuse policy.

 

[ALTOY459]

Gotta love those US sanctions against the country

 

[SDET]

Watch, VZ will install a President we approve of and oil prices will rise.

That doesn't make sense. Venezuela's collapse has removed 1.5 million barrels per day from the market. A total collapse would remove another million. If supply drops, prices go up. If supply recovers, prices drop.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

Just wanted to say:

Told you so.

One-dimensional economy, steriod injected cult of personality totalitarianism masquerading as confiscatory socialism, compounded by IMF neoliberal engineering, not surprised.

We could help, but it could only be a little bit of help and it would never be enough unless VZ is willing to hit a middle note somewhere.
Of course, that would also require that the IMF hit a middle note, too.

But in the end it's going to take VZ and its people to have the stomach to restart and rebuild.

 

[lefty louie]

That doesn't make sense. Venezuela's collapse has removed 1.5 million barrels per day from the market. A total collapse would remove another million. If supply drops, prices go up. If supply recovers, prices drop.

Ever think the prices are artificially set? Read post 10, it's all a game, we are set up to lose, so is Vz., either you play by the rules or you get squished.

 

[SDET]

Ever think the prices are artificially set? Read post 10, it's all a game, we are set up to lose, so is Vz., either you play by the rules or you get squished.

I gave up on conspiracy theories when the John Birch Society said that the USA would be under Soviet control no later than 1989. I'm still waiting.

 

[lefty louie]

I gave up on conspiracy theories when the John Birch Society said that the USA would be under Soviet control no later than 1989. I'm still waiting.

If you ask the left we are under there control, LMAO.

 

[ecofarm]

One-dimensional economy, steriod injected cult of personality totalitarianism masquerading as confiscatory socialism, compounded by IMF neoliberal engineering, not surprised.

We could help, but it could only be a little bit of help and it would never be enough unless VZ is willing to hit a middle note somewhere.
Of course, that would also require that the IMF hit a middle note, too.

But in the end it's going to take VZ and its people to have the stomach to restart and rebuild.

My problem with IMF strings are not the political ones but the agricultural development strings (centralizing industrial production, foreign inputs and reliance on foreign markets).

 

[Mr Person]

I agree but the cause is his theft. Prices can drop and a country even more dependent survives. It's not really "naturally" when virtual treason compounds a difficulty to a crisis. Oil prices have recovered yet Venezuela has not.

We could compare any number of similarly dependent countries.

While your characterization of the Chavez regime as "totalitarian" is clearly anti Chavez, your "naturally" seemed to excuse policy.

Ah. I can explain.

I try to be technical with terms for systems of government vs. systems of economy since they are so often misused to label political opponents. "Socialist" is mainly a description of the economic system. A true socialist country is one in which the government owns the means of production, but that says nothing directly about what form of government must exist. They've typically been authoritarian/totalitarian/etc, and also sort of a dictatorship surrounded by less powerful but still powerful oligarchs. (USSR and China, particularly in the past).


The "naturally" opener was simply me saying "well, of course they're in deep ****", but it was due to the combination of non-oil policies (including any corruption/theft/etc + other policies re: those means of production government controls) and oil policies.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

My problem with IMF strings are not the political ones but the agricultural development strings (centralizing industrial production, foreign inputs and reliance on foreign markets).

I'm pretty dead set against IMF forcing leaders to sign radical currency, lending, wage and social program agreements without even allowing them to be submitted to parliaments or a congress for a vote.
What would Americans think if tomorrow we all woke up and learned that Paul Ryan did NOT arbitrarily shut down the VA, Medicare, Social Security, the US Interstate Highway System and all fire departments and public schools via a series of bills and measures before Congress but instead, that Trump just SIGNED an agreement the night before, and BLAMMO, it was DONE instantly?

Wait, don't tell me, he's already fantasizing about doing that right now, I know...but suppose it was just Jamie Dimon's idea and Trump had no choice but to go along with it? (or any president, for that matter)

 

[ecofarm]

I'm pretty dead set against IMF forcing leaders to sign radical currency, lending, wage and social program agreements without even allowing them to be submitted to parliaments or a congress for a vote.
What would Americans think if tomorrow we all woke up and learned that Paul Ryan did NOT arbitrarily shut down the VA, Medicare, Social Security, the US Interstate Highway System and all fire departments and public schools via a series of bills and measures before Congress but instead, that Trump just SIGNED an agreement the night before, and BLAMMO, it was DONE instantly?

Wait, don't tell me, he's already fantasizing about doing that right now, I know...but suppose it was just Jamie Dimon's idea and Trump had no choice but to go along with it? (or any president, for that matter)

Deregulation and denationalization are good or bad depending on specific circumstance. In the developing world, circumstances can vary vastly.

Centralized agriculture is historically a disaster. China and Cuba decentralized in time to avoid dissolution. The Soviet Union realized their error and tried but was too late.

The transplanting of an agricultural system dependent on centralization, oil, foreign inputs and foreign markets is inherently fraught with risk. It's neo colonialism as it imposes a system and reliance.