True Blue
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In a bygone era, in an era when America was really serious about saving countries from fates worse than death, she didn't shy away from obstacles that stood in her way to achieving honorable goals.
Thus, in Vietnam, the USA slaughtered 3 million Vietnamese who were lucky that we left them dead, and not red. Perhaps we underestimated how many we had to kill in order to save all of them, but, with 3 million notches on America's belt, who can deny we gave it the good old college try?
Alas, America has lost its ideals, its vision, its courage and its conviction - unless, of course, I'm counting too soon. (I sure hope so!)
For the Washington Post is reporting (see below) that a mere 650,000 Iraqis have been killed since we invaded to the tune of better whacked than Saddamed. Surely if the USA really wants to win this time, we should take the thing a little more seriously than we took Vietnam, right?
Who can doubt that if we'd killed, say, 10 million Vietnamese, rather than only 3 million, that we wouldn't have won that war, and with it honor for our honorable leaders and troops and the blessings of freedom for the Vietnamese?
Hell, even if we're later forced to slink out of Baghdad, tail between legs, unless we leave 5 or 10 million dead, how are we going to hold our heads high that we gave it all we could? What will the downtrodden in other countries who call for our help think if they believe that when we show up we won't be willing to kill more than a small percentage of the population of their country?
Real patriots know that freedom is neither free nor easy. It's time we stopped *****footing around and got down to the serious business of saving the Iraqis, from the Iraqis, if need be.
True Blue
Study Claims Iraq's 'Excess' Death Toll Has Reached 655,000
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/10/AR2006101001442_pf.html
By David Brown
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 11, 2006; A12
A team of American and Iraqi epidemiologists estimates that 655,000
more people have died in Iraq since coalition forces arrived in March
2003 than would have died if the invasion had not occurred.
The estimate, produced by interviewing residents during a random
sampling of households throughout the country, is far higher than ones
produced by other groups, including Iraq's government.
It is more than 20 times the estimate of 30,000 civilian deaths that
President Bush gave in a speech in December. It is more than 10 times
the estimate of roughly 50,000 civilian deaths made by the
British-based Iraq Body Count research group.
The surveyors said they found a steady increase in mortality since the
invasion, with a steeper rise in the last year that appears to reflect
a worsening of violence as reported by the U.S. military, the news
media and civilian groups. In the year ending in June, the team
calculated Iraq's mortality rate to be roughly four times what it was
the year before the war.
Of the total 655,000 estimated "excess deaths," 601,000 resulted from
violence and the rest from disease and other causes, according to the
study. This is about 500 unexpected violent deaths per day throughout
the country.
The survey was done by Iraqi physicians and overseen by epidemiologists
at Johns Hopkins University's Bloomberg School of Public Health. The
findings are being published online today by the British medical
journal the Lancet.
The same group in 2004 published an estimate of roughly 100,000 deaths
in the first 18 months after the invasion. That figure was much higher
than expected, and was controversial. The new study estimates that
about 500,000 more Iraqis, both civilian and military, have died since
then -- a finding likely to be equally controversial.
Both this and the earlier study are the only ones to estimate mortality
in Iraq using scientific methods. The technique, called "cluster
sampling," is used to estimate mortality in famines and after natural
disasters.
While acknowledging that the estimate is large, the researchers believe
it is sound for numerous reasons. The recent survey got the same
estimate for immediate post-invasion deaths as the early survey, which
gives the researchers confidence in the methods. The great majority of
deaths were also substantiated by death certificates.
"We're very confident with the results," said Gilbert Burnham, a Johns
Hopkins physician and epidemiologist.
A Defense Department spokesman did not comment directly on the
estimate.
"The Department of Defense always regrets the loss of any innocent life
in Iraq or anywhere else," said Lt. Col. Mark Ballesteros. "The
coalition takes enormous precautions to prevent civilian deaths and
injuries."
He added that "it would be difficult for the U.S. to precisely
determine the number of civilian deaths in Iraq as a result of
insurgent activity. The Iraqi Ministry of Health would be in a better
position, with all of its records, to provide more accurate information
on deaths in Iraq."
Ronald Waldman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University who worked at
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for many years, called
the survey method "tried and true," and added that "this is the best
estimate of mortality we have."
This viewed was echoed by Sarah Leah Whitson, an official of Human
Rights Watch in New York, who said, "We have no reason to question the
findings or the accuracy" of the survey.
"I expect that people will be surprised by these figures," she said. "I
think it is very important that, rather than questioning them, people
realize there is very, very little reliable data coming out of Iraq."
The survey was conducted between May 20 and July 10 by eight Iraqi
physicians organized through Mustansiriya University in Baghdad. They
visited 1,849 randomly selected households that had an average of seven
members each. One person in each household was asked about deaths in
the 14 months before the invasion and in the period after.
The interviewers asked for death certificates 87 percent of the time;
when they did, more than 90 percent of households produced
certificates.
According to the survey results, Iraq's mortality rate in the year
before the invasion was 5.5 deaths per 1,000 people; in the
post-invasion period it was 13.3 deaths per 1,000 people per year. The
difference between these rates was used to calculate "excess deaths."
Of the 629 deaths reported, 87 percent occurred after the invasion. A
little more than 75 percent of the dead were men, with a greater male
preponderance after the invasion. For violent post-invasion deaths, the
male-to-female ratio was 10-to-1, with most victims between 15 and 44
years old.
Gunshot wounds caused 56 percent of violent deaths, with car bombs and
other explosions causing 14 percent, according to the survey results.
Of the violent deaths that occurred after the invasion, 31 percent were
caused by coalition forces or airstrikes, the respondents said.
Burnham said that the estimate of Iraq's pre-invasion death rate -- 5.5
deaths per 1,000 people -- found in both of the Hopkins surveys was
roughly the same estimate used by the CIA and the U.S. Census Bureau.
He said he believes that attests to the accuracy of his team's results.
He thinks further evidence of the survey's robustness is that the
steepness of the upward trend it found in excess deaths in the last two
years is roughly the same tendency found by other groups -- even though
the actual numbers differ greatly.
An independent group of researchers and biostatisticians based in
England produces the Iraq Body Count. It estimates that there have been
44,000 to 49,000 civilian deaths since the invasion. An Iraqi
nongovernmental organization estimated 128,000 deaths between the
invasion and July 2005.
The survey cost about $50,000 and was paid for by Massachusetts
Institute of Technology's Center for International Studies.
Staff researcher Madonna Lebling contributed to this report.
© 2006 The Washington Post Company
Thus, in Vietnam, the USA slaughtered 3 million Vietnamese who were lucky that we left them dead, and not red. Perhaps we underestimated how many we had to kill in order to save all of them, but, with 3 million notches on America's belt, who can deny we gave it the good old college try?
Alas, America has lost its ideals, its vision, its courage and its conviction - unless, of course, I'm counting too soon. (I sure hope so!)
For the Washington Post is reporting (see below) that a mere 650,000 Iraqis have been killed since we invaded to the tune of better whacked than Saddamed. Surely if the USA really wants to win this time, we should take the thing a little more seriously than we took Vietnam, right?
Who can doubt that if we'd killed, say, 10 million Vietnamese, rather than only 3 million, that we wouldn't have won that war, and with it honor for our honorable leaders and troops and the blessings of freedom for the Vietnamese?
Hell, even if we're later forced to slink out of Baghdad, tail between legs, unless we leave 5 or 10 million dead, how are we going to hold our heads high that we gave it all we could? What will the downtrodden in other countries who call for our help think if they believe that when we show up we won't be willing to kill more than a small percentage of the population of their country?
Real patriots know that freedom is neither free nor easy. It's time we stopped *****footing around and got down to the serious business of saving the Iraqis, from the Iraqis, if need be.
True Blue
Study Claims Iraq's 'Excess' Death Toll Has Reached 655,000
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/10/AR2006101001442_pf.html
By David Brown
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 11, 2006; A12
A team of American and Iraqi epidemiologists estimates that 655,000
more people have died in Iraq since coalition forces arrived in March
2003 than would have died if the invasion had not occurred.
The estimate, produced by interviewing residents during a random
sampling of households throughout the country, is far higher than ones
produced by other groups, including Iraq's government.
It is more than 20 times the estimate of 30,000 civilian deaths that
President Bush gave in a speech in December. It is more than 10 times
the estimate of roughly 50,000 civilian deaths made by the
British-based Iraq Body Count research group.
The surveyors said they found a steady increase in mortality since the
invasion, with a steeper rise in the last year that appears to reflect
a worsening of violence as reported by the U.S. military, the news
media and civilian groups. In the year ending in June, the team
calculated Iraq's mortality rate to be roughly four times what it was
the year before the war.
Of the total 655,000 estimated "excess deaths," 601,000 resulted from
violence and the rest from disease and other causes, according to the
study. This is about 500 unexpected violent deaths per day throughout
the country.
The survey was done by Iraqi physicians and overseen by epidemiologists
at Johns Hopkins University's Bloomberg School of Public Health. The
findings are being published online today by the British medical
journal the Lancet.
The same group in 2004 published an estimate of roughly 100,000 deaths
in the first 18 months after the invasion. That figure was much higher
than expected, and was controversial. The new study estimates that
about 500,000 more Iraqis, both civilian and military, have died since
then -- a finding likely to be equally controversial.
Both this and the earlier study are the only ones to estimate mortality
in Iraq using scientific methods. The technique, called "cluster
sampling," is used to estimate mortality in famines and after natural
disasters.
While acknowledging that the estimate is large, the researchers believe
it is sound for numerous reasons. The recent survey got the same
estimate for immediate post-invasion deaths as the early survey, which
gives the researchers confidence in the methods. The great majority of
deaths were also substantiated by death certificates.
"We're very confident with the results," said Gilbert Burnham, a Johns
Hopkins physician and epidemiologist.
A Defense Department spokesman did not comment directly on the
estimate.
"The Department of Defense always regrets the loss of any innocent life
in Iraq or anywhere else," said Lt. Col. Mark Ballesteros. "The
coalition takes enormous precautions to prevent civilian deaths and
injuries."
He added that "it would be difficult for the U.S. to precisely
determine the number of civilian deaths in Iraq as a result of
insurgent activity. The Iraqi Ministry of Health would be in a better
position, with all of its records, to provide more accurate information
on deaths in Iraq."
Ronald Waldman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University who worked at
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for many years, called
the survey method "tried and true," and added that "this is the best
estimate of mortality we have."
This viewed was echoed by Sarah Leah Whitson, an official of Human
Rights Watch in New York, who said, "We have no reason to question the
findings or the accuracy" of the survey.
"I expect that people will be surprised by these figures," she said. "I
think it is very important that, rather than questioning them, people
realize there is very, very little reliable data coming out of Iraq."
The survey was conducted between May 20 and July 10 by eight Iraqi
physicians organized through Mustansiriya University in Baghdad. They
visited 1,849 randomly selected households that had an average of seven
members each. One person in each household was asked about deaths in
the 14 months before the invasion and in the period after.
The interviewers asked for death certificates 87 percent of the time;
when they did, more than 90 percent of households produced
certificates.
According to the survey results, Iraq's mortality rate in the year
before the invasion was 5.5 deaths per 1,000 people; in the
post-invasion period it was 13.3 deaths per 1,000 people per year. The
difference between these rates was used to calculate "excess deaths."
Of the 629 deaths reported, 87 percent occurred after the invasion. A
little more than 75 percent of the dead were men, with a greater male
preponderance after the invasion. For violent post-invasion deaths, the
male-to-female ratio was 10-to-1, with most victims between 15 and 44
years old.
Gunshot wounds caused 56 percent of violent deaths, with car bombs and
other explosions causing 14 percent, according to the survey results.
Of the violent deaths that occurred after the invasion, 31 percent were
caused by coalition forces or airstrikes, the respondents said.
Burnham said that the estimate of Iraq's pre-invasion death rate -- 5.5
deaths per 1,000 people -- found in both of the Hopkins surveys was
roughly the same estimate used by the CIA and the U.S. Census Bureau.
He said he believes that attests to the accuracy of his team's results.
He thinks further evidence of the survey's robustness is that the
steepness of the upward trend it found in excess deaths in the last two
years is roughly the same tendency found by other groups -- even though
the actual numbers differ greatly.
An independent group of researchers and biostatisticians based in
England produces the Iraq Body Count. It estimates that there have been
44,000 to 49,000 civilian deaths since the invasion. An Iraqi
nongovernmental organization estimated 128,000 deaths between the
invasion and July 2005.
The survey cost about $50,000 and was paid for by Massachusetts
Institute of Technology's Center for International Studies.
Staff researcher Madonna Lebling contributed to this report.
© 2006 The Washington Post Company
