US unemployment claims dip below 1m for first time in 20 weeks

[dcsports]

US unemployment claims dip below 1m for first time in 20 weeks | Business | The Guardian

The number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week dipped below 1 million for the first time in 20 weeks but signs of the coronavirus pandemic’s devastating impact on the US jobs market remain. The latest figures from the labor department showed 963,000 people filing claims after 20 weeks of claims above 1m. Claims still remain historically high. Before the pandemic claims were averaging around 200,000 a week and the previous record for claims was 695,000, set in 1982.
...
The US job market has picked up in the last two months. In July the US added 1.8m jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 10.2% from 11.1%. The gains were largely in restaurants, bars and the leisure sector which had furloughed millions of workers when the virus struck.

Good news! (Relatively speaking). Hopefully these are signs that we've turned the corner on the economic front.

 

[Cardinal]

US unemployment claims dip below 1m for first time in 20 weeks | Business | The Guardian



Good news! (Relatively speaking). Hopefully these are signs that we've turned the corner on the economic front.

"Relatively speaking" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that post.

 

[Drawdown]

US unemployment claims dip below 1m for first time in 20 weeks | Business | The Guardian



Good news! (Relatively speaking). Hopefully these are signs that we've turned the corner on the economic front.

Nope. The economy is adapting to new business models that involve even fewer employees.

 

[Chomsky]

Well, the trend in unemployment is right. But the trend in hiring is wrong. So, we'll have to see how the two reconcile.

 

[Chomsky]

Nope. The economy is adapting to new business models that involve even fewer employees.

That just may be. Many businesses by me, particularly restaurants, are not providing full services - even when legally able to do so. They prefer the slimmed-down model they're now operating at.

 

[Casper]

US unemployment claims dip below 1m for first time in 20 weeks | Business | The Guardian



Good news! (Relatively speaking). Hopefully these are signs that we've turned the corner on the economic front.

I wish it were true, but the airlines have not done their layoffs, those are scheduled for Sept, plus the oil and gas industry hasn't really gone through their layoffs. The numbers are still bad no matter how you look at it.

 

[RAMOSS]

Well, the trend in unemployment is right. But the trend in hiring is wrong. So, we'll have to see how the two reconcile.

There is also a lot of 'part time' people that used to be full time.

 

[Metric Mouse]

That just may be. Many businesses by me, particularly restaurants, are not providing full services - even when legally able to do so. They prefer the slimmed-down model they're now operating at.

I imagine some business models will be altered for a long time. Maybe forever. However, when this has happened in the past there are usually new opportunities opened up as well.

 

[bluesmoke]

Things will no longer be the same that previously required more employees and working at-site. Fewer employees and more at-home work saves business expense. Obviously, it doesn't save but costs those employees who never return and, depending on the situation, could be a net cost, though possibly some savings, for employees that work from home.

 

[Chomsky]

There is also a lot of 'part time' people that used to be full time.

My thoughts, as well.

And that lack of a fuller income is making it difficult to staff.

I recently remarked how traffic in my metro area is now about 80% rush-hour level heavy in the early afternoon, starting after lunch time. But during the regular traditional early evening rush times, the streets are nearly as empty as a Sunday night. Others around me noticed this, too. We then (friends & family) hypothesized this might be due to so many working limited and part-time schedules, as some I was discussing with indeed were.

 

[Chomsky]

I wish it were true, but the airlines have not done their layoffs, those are scheduled for Sept, plus the oil and gas industry hasn't really gone through their layoffs. The numbers are still bad no matter how you look at it.

We won't get a truer picture until we see what the recent loss of the bail-out monies brings. PPP was keeping several employees I know going full time, who now are suffered drastic income drops due to it's recent expiration. They are now getting very limited hours.

 

[Chomsky]

I imagine some business models will be altered for a long time. Maybe forever. However, when this has happened in the past there are usually new opportunities opened up as well.

Agreed. The pandemic has sped-up many already growing societal trends. And the even better news? We'll be better prepared for the next pandemic or disease outbreak.

 

[roughdraft274]

That just may be. Many businesses by me, particularly restaurants, are not providing full services - even when legally able to do so. They prefer the slimmed-down model they're now operating at.

At my engineering firm I'm seeing a push for increased output like I've never seen. I started right before the 2008 crash and people didn't seem as frantic back then as they are now. I think until alot of people are more sure that this virus is actually contained they aren't going to invest money or start ramping back up. And right now they simply aren't trusting our leadership because of the absolute failure and astonishing disinformation coming from our government.

 

[Chomsky]

At my engineering firm I'm seeing a push for increased output like I've never seen. I started right before the 2008 crash and people didn't seem as frantic back then as they are now. I think until alot of people are more sure that this virus is actually contained they aren't going to invest money or start ramping back up. And right now they simply aren't trusting our leadership because of the absolute failure and astonishing disinformation coming from our government.

That's just about everywhere.

No one wants hire into uncertainty. I think the 'open, then re-close' fiasco injects a lot of caution and uncertainty into the employment markets.

 

[RAMOSS]

My thoughts, as well.

And that lack of a fuller income is making it difficult to staff.

I recently remarked how traffic in my metro area is now about 80% rush-hour level heavy in the early afternoon, starting after lunch time. But during the regular traditional early evening rush times, the streets are nearly as empty as a Sunday night. Others around me noticed this, too. We then (friends & family) hypothesized this might do to so many working limited and part-time schedules, as some in the discussion were.

A person I know got off of unemployment the first week in August.. just as the extra 600 a week expired (she had been looking the entire time, just no jobs)
She got hired for 20 hours a week, which basically is the same as the unemployment wihtout the extra 600. It does have the potential of going full time though. And, it's work at home.

 

[Chomsky]

A person I know got off of unemployment the first week in August.. just as the extra 600 a week expired (she had been looking the entire time, just no jobs)
She got hired for 20 hours a week, which basically is the same as the unemployment wihtout the extra 600. It does have the potential of going full time though. And, it's work at home.

That can have it's advantages ...

 

[Kushinator]

That just may be. Many businesses by me, particularly restaurants, are not providing full services - even when legally able to do so. They prefer the slimmed-down model they're now operating at.

It's due to liability. Even though new Covid-19 related insurance products have made their way to market, many business are not willing to bite. For one, the premiums have to be absolutely outrageous. Secondly, there isn't any way to know if insurance claims will actually be paid out.

For restaurants and bars, it's easier to just scale back and let technology do the heavy lifting (delivery services, no contract payments, no cash, etc....)

 

[Chomsky]

It's due to liability. Even though new Covid-19 related insurance products have made their way to market, many business are not willing to bite. For one, the premiums have to be absolutely outrageous. Secondly, there isn't any way to know if insurance claims will actually be paid out.

For restaurants and bars, it's easier to just scale back and let technology do the heavy lifting (delivery services, no contract payments, no cash, etc....)

Thanks. That might be a fair point, I wouldn't know. But I do know many smaller restaurants are happy sticking with curbside carry-out.

 

[Kushinator]

Thanks. That might be a fair point, I wouldn't know. But I do know many smaller restaurants are happy sticking with curbside carry-out.

In many cases, it is a loss minimizing business plan. I don't know of a single hospitality company that has seen enough sales to justify (on the basis of higher margins) decreases in costs. They are doing it because they have to in order to potentially stay open long enough to return to normal times.

 

[uptower]

Wow dipped below a million for the first time in whatever. I suppose that makes it the 'best economy evah in the history of the world'.

 

[Chomsky]

In many cases, it is a loss minimizing business plan. I don't know of a single hospitality company that has seen enough sales to justify (on the basis of higher margins) decreases in costs. They are doing it because they have to in order to potentially stay open long enough to return to normal times.

You might be right. The feedback I've gotten from several, is the economics of socially-distance inside dining do not work-out for profitability. That also goes for the wait-staffs' profits. There isn't enough money in it for establishment or workers - both. Or so they've told me ...

 

[Atomic Kid]

You might be right. The feedback I've gotten from several, is the economics of socially-distance inside dining do not work-out for profitability. That also goes for the wait-staffs' profits. There isn't enough money in it for establishment or workers - both. Or so they've told me ...

Which shouldn't come as any surprise yo anyone since the restaurant business model often centers around capacity. Social distancing means reduced capacity and if your business lacks outdoor space to be able expand outdoor dining you're hit. And once the cold weather comes around again the viability of outdoor dining facilities will be substantially reduced and the profit margins thin once again.

 

[dcsports]

Which shouldn't come as any surprise yo anyone since the restaurant business model often centers around capacity. Social distancing means reduced capacity and if your business lacks outdoor space to be able expand outdoor dining you're hit. And once the cold weather comes around again the viability of outdoor dining facilities will be substantially reduced and the profit margins thin once again.

Absolutely - although I would describe outdoor dining as more seasonal. In more southern climates, especially along the coast where humidity is a factor, it's miserable to eat outdoors now. October-February will be the sweet spot.

The other trend I've noticed is that as restaurants are in survival mode, the quality is REALLY suffering. The quality of the food, especially take out, is really declining. Even dining in, food and service seem to be consist of doing the minimal they can to get by.

It will be interesting to see what happens to restaurant design in the long term. They've put so much focus on revenue per seat that we've ended up with a lot of restaurants with large, open seating areas, and tables packed in. I didn't care for that pre-covid. It will be interesting to see if we shift back toward larger dining areas that are more spread out with more separated seating. Or more focus on throughput (getting people in and out quickly to maximize use of the seating) rather than capacity.

 

[Kushinator]

Good news! (Relatively speaking). Hopefully these are signs that we've turned the corner on the economic front.

Are you also going to cheer the Keynesian policies of automatic stabilizers and deficit spending? Seriously doubt it....

 

[Kushinator]

And once the cold weather comes around again the viability of outdoor dining facilities will be substantially reduced and the profit margins thin once again.

Once the cold weather starts, the majority of hospitality jobs that have been recalled will once again deplete in regions where outdoor dining is weather prohibited.