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US Slides to 6th place in WEF's Global Competitiveness Report (1 Viewer)

jfuh

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Some worrysome points from the Executive summary that I believe should be addressed:
  1. The United States is ranked sixth this year. It remains a world leader in a number of key categories assesse by the GCI, such as market efficiency, innovation, higher education and training, and business sophistication.
    However, growing imbalances have dented a number of macroeconomic indicators, and the levels of efficiency and transparency underpinning its public institutions do not match those of the most developed industrial countries.
  2. What is unsustainable is the present growth of the US deficit as a share of GDP. Maintaining a constant share deficit may require some depreciation of the dollar and a reduction in the trade deficit. It will also require greater effort on the part of the United States to reduce fiscal imbalances.
    For Rogoff, the US deficit represents government borrowing and no longer supports high real investment.
  3. The United States is presently consuming 70 percent of the world’s net savings. Historically, current account deficits have tended to collapse at relatively low levels. A housing slump would slow the US economy, while other countries are growing, reducing the US deficit.
  4. The overvalued dollar could drop up to 40 percent on a trade-weighted basis, reducing global output and precipitating a financial market crisis, soaring interest rates, with a concomitant severe impact on Europe and Japan. Budget deficits are ballooning, with rising costs for the elderly and for security. High government debt to GDP ratios and rising interest rates could precipitate emerging market debt crises and defaults. Accumulating global imbalances are now a substantial risk to the world economy, which
    only multilateral policy consultations could reduce. There has to be a massive appreciation in emerging Asia, and an immediate effort to balance the US budget.
Source

This current deficit spending is going to kill us.
 
Too bad nothing is going be be done about it until at least 2008.
 
galenrox said:
Alright Jfuh,

1) This is not neccesarily a problem. What makes us market efficient, and what allows us to be on the forefront of training and business sophistication is the same thing that decreases the amounts of jobs in other fields, and that is comparitive advantage. Due to the relatively high standard of living (and thus higher cost of living), we have more resources to dedicate towards furthering ourselves, in training in the newest fields, and moving with innovation. On the other hand, due to this same standard (and thus cost) of living it becomes less economically efficient to use Americans to do jobs that could be done in nations with lesser standards (partially because, due to the higher quality of life, it costs more to make it worth an American's while to work a full day than it is for, say, and Indian). Now we could take trade protectionist policies to make it unprofitable to send jobs overseas, but this decreases the global benefit significantly, along with decreasing the benefit amongst the majority Americans (save the few who would otherwise lose their jobs).
So anyways, we've reached the point where we need to realize that, for the most part, you're gonna need a good amount of training and expertise if you're gonna make it in the American economy. And we're dealing with that.
I'm not advocating for protectionist policies, in fact I believe my record on this site speaks for itself, I'm very much the free market proponent.

galenrox said:
2) This is a problem. Spending needs to be significantly cut. Just curious, because you think this is such a problem, what spending cuts do you think need to be made? Specifically what programs should be eliminated?
I'm not the economist, I have problems in dealing with my own check book let alone national budget. What it boils down to though is that I know we can not continue cutting revenue while increasing spending. One of the two must give. For starters on spending, pork barrels; secondly tax cuts for millionares and so on seem also to be a good starting ground.
thirdly the closure of tax loopholes as well as the full actual collection of coorperate dues - that is with the current policies that are already in place.
 
jfuh said:
I'm not advocating for protectionist policies, in fact I believe my record on this site speaks for itself, I'm very much the free market proponent.

I'm not the economist, I have problems in dealing with my own check book let alone national budget. What it boils down to though is that I know we can not continue cutting revenue while increasing spending. One of the two must give. For starters on spending, pork barrels; secondly tax cuts for millionares and so on seem also to be a good starting ground.
thirdly the closure of tax loopholes as well as the full actual collection of coorperate dues - that is with the current policies that are already in place.



I'm going to kindly disagree with you.


Tax cuts for millionaires, billionaires, and corporations serve 2 major purposes

it gives incentives for foreign capital to come to AMERICA

and it gives incentives to domestic capital to STAY IN AMERICA

things like capital gains tax, estate tax etc should be slaughtered. Income tax should be reduced around the table.


And, for what its worth, we should also cut off medicaid and medica, Social security, and certainly the defense budget.

Mainly, the defense budget.
 
I'm not going to get into the issue here of tax cuts versus cutting spending. I think we should do both, whatever is necessary to balance the budget, but however you slice it, whether you think it tastes great or is less filling, the bottom line problem is the deficits and growing debt.

IMO, there are two significant costs to debt (not that these are the only costs). First is interest. The interest expense will exceed $400 billion for the first time ever this year, a little more than half of which relates to "hard" interest payments to debtholders and a little less relates to interest on intra-govt debt like debt owed to the pension (ie SS) trust funds. This annual expense represents a significant obligation of the Govt, and money that cannot be spent (or saved) on other matters, like rebuilding New Orleans twice every year, fighting a couple more wars, or funding *real* tax cuts, not the fake ones we have now that are just deferring current costs to future taxpayers through borrowing.

The other significant cost (or risk) is what the article was talking about -- the effects of squeezing the credit market.

When deficits took off in the 80s, this was the risk that I often read people worrying about. Growing debt, the US Govt taking a bigger and bigger demand of available credit, would send interest rates up and up, squeezing the ability of private companies and individuals to obtain credit.

But it never really happened -- instead interest rates fell. Part of this might be attributable to the fact deficits were brought under control in the 90s, but I think what also prevented it, and what analysists in the 80s didn't anticipate, was the huge global growth in the availability of credit. Even as US debt demands were shrinking, countries like Japan and in the Middle East and more recently China were developing huge pools of capital that they were willing to invest in the US, including US Govt securities (ie debt). The US has two major advantages -- the dollar is recognized as the truly global currency that is perceived to have value, and the US Govt is viewed as one of the most stable, safest places to invest in the world.

Nowdays, you hear a lot less about this kind of credit risk than you did in the late 80s, probably since the predicted higher interest rates never materialized, folks don't give it credence. But that is what this article is talking about, and I'm glad that folks are.

But the danger is still there -- even the global market for credit has some limit and there is some limit to US debt where lenders will perceive greater risk and demand higher interest rates to be willing to invest. China is currently the elephant in the room, holding about a trillion in US debt, last I saw.

The problem is that these factors could develop rapidly, and create significant increase in real interest rates which would both cause US Govt interest payments to rise rapidly and significantly increase the cost of capital which would hurt the economy, and by the time it happens, there isn't a lot to be done about it (without a lot of pain, at least) since it is difficult to pay down a big chunk of the debt without serious budgetary and social consequences. The longer the day of reckoning is put off, the greater the pain.

Is this happening now? Hard to say. China has made noises that there are limits as to how much more it is willing to lend the US. We have seen the Fed raise interest rates, though for raises that are different from the phenonema I'm talking about. On the other hand, long term market rates still are relatively low, suggesting we are not tapping out the credit market yet and there are still lenders out there willing to lend.

However you look at it, though, it is both an expensive (interest) and risky game our Govt is playing. And when you consider the social consequences of the known fact that the boomers will be retiring en masse over the next couple decades with their demand for SS and health care, piling on a huge amount of Govt debt is precisely the wrong (if not immoral) thing to do, and will guarantee a inter-generational war between boomers who will want there retirement benefits and Gen-x and beyond who won't want to pay the much higher tax rates that will be required to pay for those benefits and the massive debt the boomers are leaving them.
 
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My solution?


Skip the country.
 

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