jfuh
DP Veteran
- Joined
- Dec 10, 2005
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- Slightly Liberal
Some worrysome points from the Executive summary that I believe should be addressed:
This current deficit spending is going to kill us.
- The United States is ranked sixth this year. It remains a world leader in a number of key categories assesse by the GCI, such as market efficiency, innovation, higher education and training, and business sophistication.
However, growing imbalances have dented a number of macroeconomic indicators, and the levels of efficiency and transparency underpinning its public institutions do not match those of the most developed industrial countries. - What is unsustainable is the present growth of the US deficit as a share of GDP. Maintaining a constant share deficit may require some depreciation of the dollar and a reduction in the trade deficit. It will also require greater effort on the part of the United States to reduce fiscal imbalances.
For Rogoff, the US deficit represents government borrowing and no longer supports high real investment. - The United States is presently consuming 70 percent of the world’s net savings. Historically, current account deficits have tended to collapse at relatively low levels. A housing slump would slow the US economy, while other countries are growing, reducing the US deficit.
- The overvalued dollar could drop up to 40 percent on a trade-weighted basis, reducing global output and precipitating a financial market crisis, soaring interest rates, with a concomitant severe impact on Europe and Japan. Budget deficits are ballooning, with rising costs for the elderly and for security. High government debt to GDP ratios and rising interest rates could precipitate emerging market debt crises and defaults. Accumulating global imbalances are now a substantial risk to the world economy, which
only multilateral policy consultations could reduce. There has to be a massive appreciation in emerging Asia, and an immediate effort to balance the US budget.
This current deficit spending is going to kill us.