US makes preparations to sail warship into Black Sea

[Rogue Valley]

US makes preparations to sail warship into Black Sea amid Russia-Ukraine tensions

12/5/18
The US has begun making the necessary preparations to sail a warship into the Black Sea, a move that comes amid heightened tensions in the region following Russia's seizure of Ukrainian ships and detention of Ukrainian sailors. The US military has requested that the State Department notify Turkey of its possible plans to sail a warship into the Black Sea, three US officials tell CNN, a move they said is a response to Russia's actions against Ukraine in the Kerch Strait, which connects the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. "Our US 6th Fleet is always prepared to respond where called," said Cdr. Kyle Raines, a spokesman for the Fleet, which oversees naval operations in the region.
"We routinely conduct operations to advance security and stability throughout the US 6th Fleet area of operations to include the international waters and airspace of the Black Sea," Raines told CNN. "We reserve the right to operate freely in accordance with international laws and norms," he added.

You can bet the farm that the brave Russian Navy won't be attacking a US warship in the waters of the Black Sea where they attacked two small Ukrainian patrol craft and a tug recently.

Related: US prepares to sail warship into Black Sea amid Ukraine-Russia clash near Crimea

https://www.debatepolitics.com/europe/338986-russias-piracy-and-kidnapping-25-november-2018-a.html

 

[Westphalian]

If it were to breach Russian waters then yes. If not then of course no.

Why is this dull story even a thread?

 

[sangha]

I fully support this action

 

[Rogue Valley]

If it were to breach Russian waters then yes. If not then of course no.

That "brave" Russian Navy wouldn't do anything in the Black Sea waters precisely where the Ukraine boats were attacked.

Gutless cowards when faced with a far stronger power.

 

[Manc Skipper]

HMS Duncan was there leading a small NATO fleet this summer, swarmed by Russian fighters!

https://www.my5.tv/warship-life-at-sea/season-1/episode-2

 

[Westphalian]

That "brave" Russian Navy wouldn't do anything in the Black Sea waters precisely where the Ukraine boats were attacked.

Gutless cowards when faced with a far stronger power.

You are really getting desperate now RV.

The US warship isn't going to sail close to where the Ukrainian boats went. You know this perfectly well.

Who are the real 'gutless cowards'?

 

[maxparrish]

US makes preparations to sail warship into Black Sea amid Russia-Ukraine tensions

You can bet the farm that the brave Russian Navy won't be attacking a US warship in the waters of the Black Sea where they attacked two small Ukrainian patrol craft and a tug recently.

Related: US prepares to sail warship into Black Sea amid Ukraine-Russia clash near Crimea

https://www.debatepolitics.com/europe/338986-russias-piracy-and-kidnapping-25-november-2018-a.html

If anything this is an under-response. Expansionism has always been, and will always be, the core pathological drive of Russians - be it under a communist flag or a that of a nationalist corrupt oligarchy. (e.g. read Ulam's textbook, Expansionism and Coexistence).

Putin is determined to eat at the table of every border state, and either return them to the empire or at least turn them into tributary puppet states.

It's long over due that Nato give an appropriate response; a carrier fleet sailing to Ukrainian port, loaded with military aircraft for Ukraine's use, would be a nice beginning.

 

[Rogue Valley]

The US warship isn't going to sail close to where the Ukrainian boats went.

I hope and pray they do. Would be great fun watching the brave Russian Navy huff and puff and, sail away.

 

[Westphalian]

So, the facts are that the US is going to sail a warship into the Black Sea, but it isn't going to aid brave and heroic Ukraine, and that it won't challenge Russian naval power in the region.


But in an act of supreme propagandist inanity, RV is arguing that if the US was to do anything brave, which it won't, then the Russian Navy would 'sail away' like 'gutless cowards'.


Surely anyone of any independent thought can see that this thread is absurd, and that the only state really displaying cowardice is the US.


Because if the US really believed RV's bravura, they would actually do something to illustrate just how gutless Russia is - it being THAT easy. The reality is of course that the US could not prevail in a naval confrontation in the Black Sea because Russia has a very effective A2/AD in place.

Those are the facts which RV knows too. He just couldn't resist getting a few ignorants to bite into this particular round of the 'Russia is pathetically weak' meme in the continuing paranoid schizophrenia show that characterises all western analysis of Russia.

 

[Rogue Valley]

So, the facts are that the US is going to sail a warship into the Black Sea, but it isn't going to aid brave and heroic Ukraine, and that it won't challenge Russian naval power in the region..

That's some mighty impressive "Russian naval power". Two very small patrol craft and a cruddy tugboat. :lamo

This is what Westphalian and that brave Russian Navy is proud of bullying.....

What heroes!! Such bravery!! What's next, attacking a tour boat full of Ukrainian grandmothers??

 

[Westphalian]

Q - If Russia is weak and cowardly, then why doesn't the US do something to expose this and rescue brave Ukraine?


A - because Russia is not weak and cowardly, and would defeat any US naval action in the Black Sea.



RV knows this very well. So now we're onto Russian bullying of a weak Ukraine. This thread remains absurd.

 

[maxparrish]

So, the facts are that the US is going to sail a warship into the Black Sea, but it isn't going to aid brave and heroic Ukraine, and that it won't challenge Russian naval power in the region.

But in an act of supreme propagandist inanity, RV is arguing that if the US was to do anything brave, which it won't, then the Russian Navy would 'sail away' like 'gutless cowards'.

Surely anyone of any independent thought can see that this thread is absurd, and that the only state really displaying cowardice is the US.


Because if the US really believed RV's bravura, they would actually do something to illustrate just how gutless Russia is - it being THAT easy. The reality is of course that the US could not prevail in a naval confrontation in the Black Sea because Russia has a very effective A2/AD in place.

First, sailing a US warship into the black sea is braver than not doing so. And a cautious approach to send a message of support for open sea lanes is not cowardly - its smart.

Second, who knows whether the Russians would blink if the action were more aggressive? If put in a situation to fire the first shot at a US vessel in UN recognized freely transited waters, they may think better of it. Putin is quite shrewd at finding leverage without causing WWIII.

Third, how effective the A2/AD is unknown; until the Israeli air war with Syria in the 1980s occurred, everyone assumed that the Soviets still deployed highly effective triple AAA systems (and believed that Saddam's Russian systems were equally effective). On the other hand, Russians now have access to western technologies.

Last, any fleet action against a land based power is dangerous, but "prevailing" is a term of art. If, for example, a western force had the limited objective of flying in replacement aircraft, they probably could. If they had the objective of knocking out Crimean airbases and defenses, they likely could if launched from Nato waters. On the other hand, if their objective was to force through closed straights, I doubt they could and would suffer major damage and likely major losses.

In any event, I would agree that the Russians are not cowards, nor are we (with the right leadership). They are, however, used to bullying Ukraine (and others) and will continue to do so till someone raises the stakes.

 

[maxparrish]

Q - If Russia is weak and cowardly, then why doesn't the US do something to expose this and rescue brave Ukraine?


A - because Russia is not weak and cowardly, and would defeat any US naval action in the Black Sea.

RV knows this very well. So now we're onto Russian bullying of a weak Ukraine. This thread remains absurd.

Not any, some.

 

[Westphalian]

Not any, some.

Any.

You talk whimsically about how the US could destroy A2/AD systems in Crimea. That's probably true, but it would also be an act of open war which would be met with a reciprocal response destroying US military assets, probably on the US mainland. It's therefore irrelevant.

 

[maxparrish]

Any.

You talk whimsically about how the US could destroy A2/AD systems in Crimea. That's probably true, but it would also be an act of open war which would be met with a reciprocal response destroying US military assets, probably on the US mainland. It's therefore irrelevant.

The route of escalation is not the question, the question was if every US naval action would be defeated. You just admitted that one action would not be defeated. Focus on your absolutist claims before you invent straw men to dispute.

 

[Westphalian]

The route of escalation is not the question, the question was if every US naval action would be defeated. You just admitted that one action would not be defeated. Focus on your absolutist claims before you invent straw men to dispute.

The US could reduce Moscow to a pile of rubble, and the same with Crimea if it wanted to.

But that isn't going to happen over the plight of Ukraine in the Azov, because of course the US isn't going to sacrifice any Americans for its Ukrainian play toy.

So, I'm dealing with practical and realistic scenarios, and you're being a rather silly absolutist.

 

[maxparrish]

The US could reduce Moscow to a pile of rubble, and the same with Crimea if it wanted to.

But that isn't going to happen over the plight of Ukraine in the Azov, because of course the US isn't going to sacrifice any Americans for its Ukrainian play toy.

So, I'm dealing with practical and realistic scenarios, and you're being a rather silly absolutist.

And rather than admit you made an overstatement, you keep trying to steer the conversation into discussing a point I never disputed.

Now, whether or not the US under Trump or a future president would put at risk American lives for the Ukraine is unknown. I agree, I doubt they would intentionally sacrifice Americans, but that is not how these things usually start. The Ukraine, for many Americans, is not a play toy - its an increasingly sympathetic victim of Russian aggression. And assuming someone like Hillary Clinton or Elizabeth Warren beats Trump in 2020, they would be more aggressive than he has been.

 

[Westphalian]

And rather than admit you made an overstatement, you keep trying to steer the conversation into discussing a point I never disputed.

Now, whether or not the US under Trump or a future president would put at risk American lives for the Ukraine is unknown. I agree, I doubt they would intentionally sacrifice Americans, but that is not how these things usually start. The Ukraine, for many Americans, is not a play toy - its an increasingly sympathetic victim of Russian aggression. And assuming someone like Hillary Clinton or Elizabeth Warren beats Trump in 2020, they would be more aggressive than he has been.

The inescapable point is that without destroying Russian land based facilities in Crimea and around Novorossisyk, there is no US naval deployment capable of winning.

You also forget that under the Montreux convention, the US is prohibited from any meaningful naval deployment in the Black Sea.

Thus, the US is legally and practically (short of starting WW3) incapable of any successful naval action in the Black Sea against Russia.

Hence my comment stands ....... any.

 

[Rogue Valley]

The "brave" Russian Navy does nothing when a US warship sails near Crimea and Russia. Nothing.

The US flies a Global Hawk drone and a Navy P-3C aircraft off the shores of Crimea and Russia every single day. Nothing.

Just days ago the US sailed a warship by Peter the Great Bay off the Russian port city of Vladivostok. Nothing.

The brave Russian military isn't so enthusiastic about teaching the US Navy a lesson.

But it sure likes to flex against small shore patrol craft and a beat up tugboat. Such bravery!

The Kremlin should be embarrassed. The whole world can see how cowardly the Russian Navy really is.