US Leading Economic Indicators Increases

[winston53660]

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in October to 111.3 (2004=100), following a 0.5 percent increase in September, and a 0.1 percent increase in August.

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The LEI remains on an upward trend, suggesting the modest economic expansion will continue in the near term. The LEI’s growth has been slowing this year, but gains in the financial components helped its pickup in October.”
Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The economy is slow, but latest data on the U.S. LEI suggest that change may be around the corner. Expect modest holiday sales, driven by steep discounting. But following a post-holiday lull, the indicators are suggesting a mild pickup this spring.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in October to 101.5 (2004=100), following no change in September, and no change in August. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) increased 0.1 percent in October to 108.7 (2004=100), following a 0.5 percent increase in September, and a 0.1 percent increase in August.



US LEI Increases | The Conference Board

 

[Harshaw]

Woo-hoo! Mild pickup is only six months away!

 

[winston53660]

Woo-hoo! Mild pickup is only six months away!

Your sarcasm is duly noted and dismissed.

 

[Harshaw]

Your sarcasm is duly noted and dismissed.

How else should one respond to this? We've been told over and over that recovery is just around the corner, and now this write-up says the malaise is likely to continue until spring when there will be a "mild" pickup.

 

[Kandahar]

It's pretty difficult to determine the short-term trajectory of the economy. Looking back, we can sort of piece together what happened: We had a brisk recovery until the European sovereign debt crisis took the steam out of it this summer. However, that problem hasn't gone away. Now that Greece has been bailed out, it looks like Ireland is next at bat. Depending on how that plays out, it could slow the course of economic recovery for another six months.

 

[apdst]

How else should one respond to this? We've been told over and over that recovery is just around the corner, and now this write-up says the malaise is likely to continue until spring when there will be a "mild" pickup.

Take it easy on'em. The Libs have to do something to cheer themselves up, after their boy caused a total and complete cluster ****.

 

[winston53660]

How else should one respond to this? We've been told over and over that recovery is just around the corner, and now this write-up says the malaise is likely to continue until spring when there will be a "mild" pickup.

Recovery is happening. As quickly as people would like it? No, but none the less revoery is happening.

 

[Harshaw]

It's pretty difficult to determine the short-term trajectory of the economy. Looking back, we can sort of piece together what happened: We had a brisk recovery until the European sovereign debt crisis took the steam out of it this summer. However, that problem hasn't gone away. Now that Greece has been bailed out, it looks like Ireland is next at bat. Depending on how that plays out, it could slow the course of economic recovery for another six months.

I don't disagree. I just don't know why anyone should greet this report in any way other than what I did.

 

[Taylor]

Recovery is happening. As quickly as people would like it? No, but none the less revoery is happening.

Well sure, we've been out of the recession for quite some time. But this recovery isn't exactly putting people back to work.

I was lambasted by people on this site back in April for not "seeing the obvious" that a 160k upturn from the March jobs report was a clear indicator that we were on the verge of significant gains... and look where we are now. Still piddling along. I've got the same reaction now that I did back then: :shrug:

 

[Objective Voice]

What I find amazing is how critics continue to ridicule the President knowing how we got into the economic mess in the first place. Sure, his administration made a few mistakes, specifically making claims of unemployment not reaching above a certain level or promoting faster progress when things with new regulations hadn't quite shook out yet, but I view those as minor issues in the grand scheme of things.

Point is only a fool would think the economy would have returned to pre-October 2008 levels in just 2-years time considering the magnitude of the economic problems this nation had to deal with. I view these latest estimates on the economic indexes to be great news! Means we're finally headed in the right direction. And mind you, this has been in spite of every attempt Republicans have made to deter recovery efforts all for the sake of removing a Democrat president from office and reclaiming Congressional and Presidential power back for themselves. It's pathetic really. But that's the Party of No for you.

 

[winston53660]

Online Job Demand Rises in October

01 Nov. 2010

Online Job Demand Rises 113,700 in October, The Conference Board Reports

* Economy continues its moderate upward trend in labor demand with online vacancies up by 1.1 million since the official end of the recession (June 2009)
* 40 out of 50 States post gains in online job demand in October
* October demand up for healthcare practitioners and technical workers, management workers, and computer and mathematical science workers
The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine™

 

[Harshaw]

What I find amazing is how critics continue to ridicule the President knowing how we got into the economic mess in the first place. Sure, his administration made a few mistakes, specifically making claims of unemployment not reaching above a certain level or promoting faster progress when things with new regulations hadn't quite shook out yet, but I view those as minor issues in the grand scheme of things.

Point is only a fool would think the economy would have returned to pre-October 2008 levels in just 2-years time considering the magnitude of the economic problems this nation had to deal with. I view these latest estimates on the economic indexes to be great news! Means we're finally headed in the right direction. And mind you, this has been in spite of every attempt Republicans have made to deter recovery efforts all for the sake of removing a Democrat president from office and reclaiming Congressional and Presidential power back for themselves. It's pathetic really. But that's the Party of No for you.

Who mentioned the President?

 

[Goobieman]

It's pretty difficult to determine the short-term trajectory of the economy. Looking back, we can sort of piece together what happened: We had a brisk recovery until the European sovereign debt crisis took the steam out of it this summer. However, that problem hasn't gone away. Now that Greece has been bailed out, it looks like Ireland is next at bat. Depending on how that plays out, it could slow the course of economic recovery for another six months.

How do you suppose the economy will react to the upcoming US sovereign debt crisis?

 

[Councilman]

What I find amazing is how critics continue to ridicule the President knowing how we got into the economic mess in the first place. Sure, his administration made a few mistakes, specifically making claims of unemployment not reaching above a certain level or promoting faster progress when things with new regulations hadn't quite shook out yet, but I view those as minor issues in the grand scheme of things.

This is a joke post right. A few mistakes? Are you kidding Obama raised the debt by almost half as much in less than two years as President Bush took 8 years to do. Obama's mistakes total $787 billion.

He wasted almost all that money and created a total of ZERO net jobs.

Obama hasn't done anything right yet.

The only success has had is to keep on schedule to destroy the economy and the future of our economy with his phony "I don't care about your Health Kill Granny Tax scheme," and now he wants Cap and Trade to fix a problem that, DOES NOT EXIST.

 

[Kandahar]

How do you suppose the economy will react to the upcoming US sovereign debt crisis?

The US is in no danger whatsoever of defaulting on its debt. Bond rates are at an all-time low, indicating that the prospect of a default isn't even in investors' minds. However, we ARE susceptible to spillover effects from debt crises in Europe (and to a lesser extent, debt crises in our own states like California). If the Ireland situation plays out as badly as the Greece situation did last spring, then we could be in for another 6 months to a year of stagnation and/or slow growth.

 

[washunut]

The US is in no danger whatsoever of defaulting on its debt. Bond rates are at an all-time low, indicating that the prospect of a default isn't even in investors' minds. However, we ARE susceptible to spillover effects from debt crises in Europe (and to a lesser extent, debt crises in our own states like California). If the Ireland situation plays out as badly as the Greece situation did last spring, then we could be in for another 6 months to a year of stagnation and/or slow growth.

If you were a foreigner getting paid back in yen, pesos, yen etc you might have a different feeling. The Fed and administration has set out on a path to devalue the dollar. So in local currencies the U.S. will in fact be paying their debt back at less than full value.

The U.S. is taking advantage of it's status as the world's reseve currency and the largest economy. So the countries that have been savers had to put a bunch of those savings in dollars and now they are trapped by this administration and Fed. I have heard short term thinkers say great we get to screw the Chinese etc. The problem is that long term these countries will find another reserve currecy or other form to replace the dollar. Then let's see if the largest debtor nation in history can borrow at low rates.

 

[Kandahar]

If you were a foreigner getting paid back in yen, pesos, yen etc you might have a different feeling. The Fed and administration has set out on a path to devalue the dollar. So in local currencies the U.S. will in fact be paying their debt back at less than full value.

So far there's no evidence of inflation...at least not in any significant amount. The greater threat in the short term is deflation, which will make the debt cost more. But in any case, a bit of inflation is not the same as default. The incredibly low rate of bonds indicates that investors are not worried about inflation OR default.

The U.S. is taking advantage of it's status as the world's reseve currency and the largest economy. So the countries that have been savers had to put a bunch of those savings in dollars and now they are trapped by this administration and Fed. I have heard short term thinkers say great we get to screw the Chinese etc. The problem is that long term these countries will find another reserve currecy or other form to replace the dollar. Then let's see if the largest debtor nation in history can borrow at low rates.

Eventually the dollar won't be the reserve currency...I think that's a given. But we're quite a ways from that, since the alternatives (the euro, the yen) are much less stable.

 

[Conservative]

What I find amazing is how critics continue to ridicule the President knowing how we got into the economic mess in the first place. Sure, his administration made a few mistakes, specifically making claims of unemployment not reaching above a certain level or promoting faster progress when things with new regulations hadn't quite shook out yet, but I view those as minor issues in the grand scheme of things.

Point is only a fool would think the economy would have returned to pre-October 2008 levels in just 2-years time considering the magnitude of the economic problems this nation had to deal with. I view these latest estimates on the economic indexes to be great news! Means we're finally headed in the right direction. And mind you, this has been in spite of every attempt Republicans have made to deter recovery efforts all for the sake of removing a Democrat president from office and reclaiming Congressional and Presidential power back for themselves. It's pathetic really. But that's the Party of No for you.

What I find amazing and quite interesting is the lack of a basic civics understanding of those who want to blame Bush for everything. Where exactly was Congress during the financial meltdown and the recession? Some just don't get it and apparently you are one of those. Barack Obama was in that Congress and maybe if he had spent more time doing his job instead of seeking his next job and as brilliant many think he is he alone could have saved the country. The he was elected with 52% of the vote and took office with total Democrat control that gave him everything he wanted.

Maybe you can explain something to me, we had a recession that ended in June 2009 which was prior to the Obama stimulus plan having a chance to work, yet here we are 17 months after the end of the recession and after over a trillion dollars was spent on the stimulus plan we have 4 million more unemployed and what do we have to show for it, 3 trillion added to the debt. How do you explain that and what good is a so called recovery that generated those results?

Now it looks like the public doesn't think we are headed in the right direction as evidenced by the Nov. 2 elections and Obama has lost about 12% of his support with an approval rating of around 40% and the country rejected the Obama agenda. So what is really pathetic is the continued effort to rehabilitate the empty suit in the WH. and re-write history.

 

[RightinNYC]

I don't disagree. I just don't know why anyone should greet this report in any way other than what I did.

Particularly when things like this weren't trumpeted by the same crowd circa 2004.

 

[washunut]

So far there's no evidence of inflation...at least not in any significant amount. The greater threat in the short term is deflation, which will make the debt cost more. But in any case, a bit of inflation is not the same as default. The incredibly low rate of bonds indicates that investors are not worried about inflation OR default.

You should look at the compoments of the CPI. Of course housing costs are not going up, but the things people buy will be going much higher as commodity costs flow through the supply chain. Interest rates may not be the indicator of inflation they should be due to supply and demand. Increasing the Fed balance sheet by $600 billion will tend to lower interest rates.

Eventually the dollar won't be the reserve currency...I think that's a given. But we're quite a ways from that, since the alternatives (the euro, the yen) are much less stable.

That is what I mean when talking about short term tactics which will have long term strategic impacts.

 

[Deuce]

This is a joke post right. A few mistakes? Are you kidding Obama raised the debt by almost half as much in less than two years as President Bush took 8 years to do. Obama's mistakes total $787 billion.

He wasted almost all that money and created a total of ZERO net jobs.

Obama hasn't done anything right yet.

The only success has had is to keep on schedule to destroy the economy and the future of our economy with his phony "I don't care about your Health Kill Granny Tax scheme," and now he wants Cap and Trade to fix a problem that, DOES NOT EXIST.

Really. Zero jobs? $787 billion just evaporated? Man, the mental gymnastics that must be required to come to THAT conclusion...

 

[Conservative]

Really. Zero jobs? $787 billion just evaporated? Man, the mental gymnastics that must be required to come to THAT conclusion...

What would you call it when someone takes office with 143 million people employed and that number is 139 million today. Would that be a net job gain or loss? What did we get for all that spending?

 

[Deuce]

What would you call it when someone takes office with 143 million people employed and that number is 139 million today. Would that be a net job gain or loss? What did we get for all that spending?

I'd call that deliberately picking the wrong measuring stick.

So, you're saying that $787 billion was spent and not one person has a job who otherwise would not have? How did that happen, exactly? Some magical gnomes completed all those construction projects?

Guess I'll go tell my friend who runs a construction company he's been hallucinating those extra guys he's hired...

 

[Conservative]

I'd call that deliberately picking the wrong measuring stick.

So, you're saying that $787 billion was spent and not one person has a job who otherwise would not have? How did that happen, exactly? Some magical gnomes completed all those construction projects?

Guess I'll go tell my friend who runs a construction company he's been hallucinating those extra guys he's hired...

I don't say it, the numbers do, there has been a NET job loss and that is the point and all it cost was 800 billion dollars. 4 million less employed today so that is a NET job loss!!

 

[Deuce]

I don't say it, the numbers do, there has been a NET job loss and that is the point and all it cost was 800 billion dollars. 4 million less employed today so that is a NET job loss!!

Yes, there was a net job loss and, before the stimulus we were losing hundreds of thousands per month and after the stimulus we've leveled off.