US inflation fell for the second month in a row.

[Ug make hammer]

The December 2022 inflation figures came out four days ago. For some reason there's no thread about this?



FRED!

Some people who want to make inflation seem as bad as possible, like to compare current CPI to one year ago. But this has a lag of ONE YEAR in showing when inflation is really turning around.

If the trend of the last two months was to continue, then by Jun we would have year-on-year deflation of 0.8%

I'm assured that deflation is actually worse than inflation. Something about suppressing investment, or money hoarding. So is the latest month-on-month result a warning that we should stop increasing official interest rates? Or maybe even bring them back down?

 

[JMB802]

The December 2022 inflation figures came out four days ago. For some reason there's no thread about this?

View attachment 67432510

FRED!

Some people who want to make inflation seem as bad as possible, like to compare current CPI to one year ago. But this has a lag of ONE YEAR in showing when inflation is really turning around.

If the trend of the last two months was to continue, then by Jun we would have year-on-year deflation of 0.8%

I'm assured that deflation is actually worse than inflation. Something about suppressing investment, or money hoarding. So is the latest month-on-month result a warning that we should stop increasing official interest rates? Or maybe even bring them back down?

There was this one, the title didn't have the word inflation.

Consumer prices fell 0.1% in December, in line with expectations from economists

Inflation closed out 2022 in a modest retreat, with consumer prices in December posting their biggest monthly decline since early in the pandemic, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The consumer price index, which measures the cost of a broad basket of goods and services, fell 0.1% for the...

debatepolitics.com

 

[Ug make hammer]

There was this one, the title didn't have the word inflation.

Consumer prices fell 0.1% in December, in line with expectations from economists

Inflation closed out 2022 in a modest retreat, with consumer prices in December posting their biggest monthly decline since early in the pandemic, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The consumer price index, which measures the cost of a broad basket of goods and services, fell 0.1% for the...

debatepolitics.com

Ah, thanks. I'll post there instead.

 

[gdgyva]

go price a dozen eggs, margarine, or butter and tell me inflation is lessening

i know....food items

but have you been to a grocery store lately?

 

[MTAtech]

go price a dozen eggs, margarine, or butter and tell me inflation is lessening

i know....food items

but have you been to a grocery store lately?

How much of your weekly budget is eggs and butter? While those items rose rents declined.

 

[Ug make hammer]

go price a dozen eggs, margarine, or butter and tell me inflation is lessening

i know....food items

but have you been to a grocery store lately?

Inflation is lessening (in fact in the last month there has been DEFLATION) and it's based on a basket of what people commonly spend their money on. If food is a larger amount of your budget than the average American, maybe you're eating too much

No, never mind the cheap joke. Your beef is with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who decide what is counted and how much is "average".

I'm not claiming the measure is objective, because it's not. Homeowners with a mortgage have very different housing costs, to people who rent, for instance. When housing prices go up, it affects new home buyers immediately, but since most US home loans are at fixed rates, rising interest rates have no effect on most existing mortgagees. (They may even benefit if they later choose to sell.) Car loans, student loans, and business loans can all be expected to rise, though again not every debtor is affected. Meanwhile, renters generally experience rent increases at some time, either immediately if they're on a month-to-month lease (typically because they don't know to renew a longer lease or are unaware of their bargaining power) or years down the track if they have a good lease.

Eggs are wholesome, and I guess butter too, but neither are something you should be eating a lot of. This points to the problem that healthy food actually costs more than the bulk commodities at the supermarket. To fix this problem, it would make more sense to use the foods stamp program to subsidize healthy food, than to wrestle the whole economy into lower CPI. Only changing relative prices will change people's buying habits, and you're doing them no favors if you make it possible for them to afford more crisps and soda. The other advantage of using a government subsidy program is it could redress price differences city-by-city, which brute forcing the CPI lower will never do.

 

[gdgyva]

How much of your weekly budget is eggs and butter? While those items rose rents declined.

your landlord decreased rents?

i know my daughters havent

i know none of my employees have had their rents DECREASED

most landlords dont tear up leases once signed....they are stuck with those rents for that lease period

And my daughter had hers go from $ 925 to 1375 back in October......that is a hefty almost 50% increase

SO some government agency may say rents are decreasing.....but in real life it is acting a LOT different than that

 

[JMB802]

your landlord decreased rents?

i know my daughters havent

i know none of my employees have had their rents DECREASED

most landlords dont tear up leases once signed....they are stuck with those rents for that lease period

And my daughter had hers go from $ 925 to 1375 back in October......that is a hefty almost 50% increase

SO some government agency may say rents are decreasing.....but in real life it is acting a LOT different than that

I'm sorry that your daughter's rent increased by so much but your comment is an anecdote about something that happened three months ago. The stats are about new leases. Hopefully, the decreasing rent trend will continue and your daughter can find something cheaper in October.

 

[gdgyva]

I'm sorry that your daughter's rent increased by so much but your comment is an anecdote about something that happened three months ago. The stats are about new leases. Hopefully, the decreasing rent trend will continue and your daughter can find something cheaper in October.

And i realize what the government reports say....

I also run a business, and see things in the real world

There may be pockets where inflation is slowing.....but we still have a major issue

And prices at stores are still going up to compensate for the raises that have had to be given to the employees to keep them

This isnt done yet

We arent going to see 3% inflation or "normal inflation" for at least another 18-24 months

Just in time for our next election cycle....

 

[MTAtech]

your landlord decreased rents?

i know my daughters havent

i know none of my employees have had their rents DECREASED

most landlords dont tear up leases once signed....they are stuck with those rents for that lease period

And my daughter had hers go from $ 925 to 1375 back in October......that is a hefty almost 50% increase

SO some government agency may say rents are decreasing.....but in real life it is acting a LOT different than that

The Zumper's October National Rent Report, found that national median rents for one- and two-bedroom units fell in 61 of the 100 largest US cities between September and October.

 

[Kushinator]

go price a dozen eggs, margarine, or butter and tell me inflation is lessening

i know....food items

but have you been to a grocery store lately?

I can cherry pick various items that are decreasing in price... that would still be an ignorant way to argue there is deflation.

 

[OrphanSlug]

Let’s see how the trends continue, way too early for declaring victory or claiming failure.

Besides, there is still a whole lot of room for Congress to **** up fiscal policy with debt ceiling stupidity and the Fed to go too far with monetary policy. Pretty much in that order.

 

[jpn]

The December 2022 inflation figures came out four days ago. For some reason there's no thread about this?

PPI is basically inflation at the wholesale level: it's the price that domestic producers get for the initial sale of their products, and it's often a forerunner of consumer inflation.

 

[Greenbeard]

We arent going to see 3% inflation or "normal inflation" for at least another 18-24 months

Just in time for our next election cycle....

We're already there.

The Wall Street Journal today: Consumer Prices Plateau as Inflation Slows to Prepandemic Levels

The inflation benchmark, measuring price growth over a year, hit a 40-year high in June after months of sustained price increases. Since then, monthly gains have slowed. While December 2022 prices were up 6.5% from a year earlier, a Wall Street Journal analysis of Labor Department data indicates that annual growth has eased to levels that existed before the pandemic. Inflation observed during the past six months would extend to prices rising 1.9% over the course of a year, close to the average annual rate of 1.7% between 2010 and 2020.

 

[Individual]

And i realize what the government reports say....

I also run a business, and see things in the real world

There may be pockets where inflation is slowing.....but we still have a major issue

And prices at stores are still going up to compensate for the raises that have had to be given to the employees to keep them

This isnt done yet

We arent going to see 3% inflation or "normal inflation" for at least another 18-24 months

Just in time for our next election cycle....

The target is a 2% annual inflation rate, which would result in the cost of living doubling about every 35 years.
A 3% annual inflation rate would double the cost of living about every 23.5 years.
The average annual inflation rate since 1913 has been about 3.123% per year, though between 1913 and 1945 along with 2 world wars the average annual inflation rate was less than 2% per year.

Knowing what and when to buy, and what and when to sell, makes inflation/deflation a non-issue.

 

[Ug make hammer]

The target is a 2% annual inflation rate, which would result in the cost of living doubling about every 35 years.
A 3% annual inflation rate would double the cost of living about every 23.5 years.
The average annual inflation rate since 1913 has been about 3.123% per year, though between 1913 and 1945 along with 2 world wars the average annual inflation rate was less than 2% per year.

Knowing what and when to buy, and what and when to sell, makes inflation/deflation a non-issue.

Hence why it impacts the poor the most. They have little choice of what and when to buy, and no choice of what to sell.

If recession affect the rich the most, and the poor hardly at all, I'd actually be in favor of it. Wealth destruction isn't as good as wealth redistribution, but it would still serve to close that gap.