US Government Debt for 2018

[Lord Tammerlain]

As it is the beginning of the new year a review of US government debt for 2018 might be in order

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/d...tYear=2017&endMonth=12&endDay=28&endYear=2018

Date Total Public Debt Outstanding
12/28/2017 20,492,954,574,011.80
12/29/2017 20,492,746,546,193.70
12/27/2018 21,845,329,154,412.00
12/28/2018 21,867,322,638,334.40

As we can see US federal government debt increased by 1.375 trillion dollars in 2018.

That is equal to approx 6.7% of GDP. Nearly double the growth rate of the US economy. Can we say government stimulus and Keynesian economics, I know we can

 

[DaveFagan]

As it is the beginning of the new year a review of US government debt for 2018 might be in order

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/d...tYear=2017&endMonth=12&endDay=28&endYear=2018



As we can see US federal government debt increased by 1.375 trillion dollars in 2018.

That is equal to approx 6.7% of GDP. Nearly double the growth rate of the US economy. Can we say government stimulus and Keynesian economics, I know we can

Do you have any data on who loaned us that $1.375 trillion? Is the interest on that $21.89 trillion nut about $500 billion? That'd buy a lot of bubble gum, or healthcare, or fix SS. Let's be realistic. At some point they/we are just going to go bankrupt. There is no alternative.
/

 

[OrphanSlug]

There is another way to look at these stats.

According to the Fed, GDP for 2018 should land somewhere in the $20.658 to $20.890 Trillion range. According to your source and the Fed as well, US Total Debt is roughly $21,867 Trillion.

What that really means is the US is running Total Debt at around 104% of GDP. We have been doing this since roughly Q4 of 2012 where we crossed the 100% barrier and continued to mostly stay there until today (only going back below 100% of GDP in Q3 of 2015.)

In itself that is not bad or good, but adding in the stat that Government is spending somewhere in the 20.5% to 20.6% of GDP range it begs the question how much more or less the OP thinks we should be spending and what impact that will have on the economy? (We have been much higher and much lower depending on the economy, spending needs at the time, etc.)

Over the past 10 or so years Government spending to GDP is tending downward. Total Debt to GDP we are more or less flat trending neither direction over the same 10 or so year period.

But all of that makes sense as the economy has been on a long enough incline that injecting more stimulus now might result in another bubble (on top of what we already are seeing in both personal and corporate debt reaching record levels.)

So what do we really want to talk about here? Government spending in general? Stimulus for some reason? Just a concern on the level of Total Debt we are running? What?

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Do you have any data on who loaned us that $1.375 trillion? Is the interest on that $21.89 trillion nut about $500 billion? That'd buy a lot of bubble gum, or healthcare, or fix SS. Let's be realistic. At some point they/we are just going to go bankrupt. There is no alternative.
/

According to the link the vast majority is "debt held by the public". The large international buyers of US debt in the past (China, Japan, Russia, many Opec countries) I do not think were buying much this year. So I expect the US Fed to be the largest buyer of US federal government debt this year or other government sponsored agencies.

For this year at least

The US wont go bankrupt, it can fund itself through the printing press

 

[manofknowledge]

Do you have any data on who loaned us that $1.375 trillion? Is the interest on that $21.89 trillion nut about $500 billion? That'd buy a lot of bubble gum, or healthcare, or fix SS. Let's be realistic. At some point they/we are just going to go bankrupt. There is no alternative.
/

At what point would the US be considered bankrupt?

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

There is another way to look at these stats.

According to the Fed, GDP for 2018 should land somewhere in the $20.658 to $20.890 Trillion range. According to your source and the Fed as well, US Total Debt is roughly $21,867 Trillion.

What that really means is the US is running Total Debt at around 104% of GDP. We have been doing this since roughly Q4 of 2012 where we crossed the 100% barrier and continued to mostly stay there until today (only going back below 100% of GDP in Q3 of 2015.)

In itself that is not bad or good, but adding in the stat that Government is spending somewhere in the 20.5% to 20.6% of GDP range it begs the question how much more or less the OP thinks we should be spending and what impact that will have on the economy? (We have been much higher and much lower depending on the economy, spending needs at the time, etc.)

Over the past 10 or so years Government spending to GDP is tending downward. Total Debt to GDP we are more or less flat trending neither direction over the same 10 or so year period.

But all of that makes sense as the economy has been on a long enough incline that injecting more stimulus now might result in another bubble (on top of what we already are seeing in both personal and corporate debt reaching record levels.)

So what do we really want to talk about here? Government spending in general? Stimulus for some reason? Just a concern on the level of Total Debt we are running? What?

I would say having an increase in Debt to GDP during "good economic "years is a bad thing. Obama in the last years of his presidency was keeping it flat like you stated, now it is increasing.

Right now it would appear the good economic times the US has is due more to government stimulus (deficit financing) rather than real long term economic growth. What will happen to the debt to GDP when the next recession hits, and the economic slows down when it is already increasing. It is overall bad economic policy, the economy was ok, the Debt to Gdp was stable to decreasing, stimulating the economy at this point in time was not needed, or should have been done at all. The money should have been reserved for a future downturn, when deficits and stimulus could be needed

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

At what point would the US be considered bankrupt?

In thruth

When in order to pay for international trade the US needs to purchase international currencies and to issue new government debt, the US has to denominate it in an international currency rather than USD

 

[manofknowledge]

In thruth

When in order to pay for international trade the US needs to purchase international currencies and to issue new government debt, the US has to denominate it in an international currency rather than USD

When does the government engage in international trade? If the government borrows money and people are willing to lend it then by definition it is not bankrupt.

 

[OrphanSlug]

I would say having an increase in Debt to GDP during "good economic "years is a bad thing. Obama in the last years of his presidency was keeping it flat like you stated, now it is increasing.

Right now it would appear the good economic times the US has is due more to government stimulus (deficit financing) rather than real long term economic growth. What will happen to the debt to GDP when the next recession hits, and the economic slows down when it is already increasing. It is overall bad economic policy, the economy was ok, the Debt to Gdp was stable to decreasing, stimulating the economy at this point in time was not needed, or should have been done at all. The money should have been reserved for a future downturn, when deficits and stimulus could be needed

In basic economic principles that is right.

When there is an economic fault the idea is Government Spending handles the fault whereas when the economy is doing well there is less reason to take on additional levels of debt. The problem is economic principles are not necessarily sound political "vote for me" principles. Those goals often collide which is a key reason why we run deficits adding to debt regardless of the condition of the economy to the point that I would argue our economic model is dependent on deficit spending. Said another way, our economic model would collapse and politicians would feel the reelection pains if all of sudden it went all Keynesian on when the government spent more and when it would spend less.

For the purposes of this conversation it took Obama and a Republican Congress (i.e. no one got everything they wanted) to slow down Spending as a percentage of GDP and for a brief time we started to see budget deficits fall. Then Trump comes along with basically the same Republican Congress and passed tax breaks, no spending cuts of note, and the jump in tax revenues from the improving economy was not enough to make up the difference and now deficits are back to awful levels during reasonable economic times (GDP growth by trend.)

It does what Bush 43 did to a lesser extent at the time, add to deficits when we did not have to so when things got bad the deficits we needed to run to deal with economic faults were that much worse. To Bush 43's credit the economy was in a real boom up to the point of the crash so his deficits did go down, but when the crash happened we went to $Trillion deficits in no time. That is likely to happen again if the economy goes south anytime soon, we are running high deficits now... so if the economy collapses again the deficits ran during that time will be historic for all the wrong reasons.

Again, going back to the Fed for numbers this is basically the past 10 or so years...



... we should be worrying. We are going the wrong direction during reasonable economic times with uncertainty for the next year or so.

 

[99percenter]

Where did the teabaggers go?

 

[DaveFagan]

According to the link the vast majority is "debt held by the public". The large international buyers of US debt in the past (China, Japan, Russia, many Opec countries) I do not think were buying much this year. So I expect the US Fed to be the largest buyer of US federal government debt this year or other government sponsored agencies.

For this year at least

The US wont go bankrupt, it can fund itself through the printing press

The Printing Press runs to the tune of US Treasuries. Loans. How many trillions can the FED loan? The printed money may be a Ponze scheme. It is backed by "Full faith and credit." That's all. It means "confidence" as in Confidence Game plays a big part. "Confidence" is what motivates the buyers of Treasuries. Are you feeling that?
/

 

[DaveFagan]

At what point would the US be considered bankrupt?

When the gubmint tries to sell you dollars for ninety cents and you say, "No thanks, do you have some silver coinage instead."
/