US Economy Adds 916,000 Jobs In March As Vaccinations Spur Return To Normal

[Mycroft]

Why don't you and Joko provide the actual proof of what Trump really said and when. You can't because all your bullshit didn't include the fact that he also said and that we can all verify that the stock market will tank if Biden gets elected. You brain dead Trump supporters don't realize that the stock market moves on how the economy is doing, sometimes rationally, sometimes irrationally and what experts predict about the future. When and if the stock market starts falling you'll be the first to blame Biden . As conservatives you should be ashamed of your support of a Pathological Liar, Egotist, Conspiracy Theorist, Vindictive SOB and most of all the the fact that Trump was never a conservative but a nationalist would be dictator like Putin. I forgot he also is a sore loser.

He said it a year ago.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/trump-predicts-economy-will-takeoff-like-a-rocket-ship-after-coronavirus-plague/2020/04/07/dece838d-5204-4551-8e5f-4fa233be73ef_video.html

The stock market doesn't move "on how the economy is doing". It moves based on the opinions, fears and speculation of a handful of gamblers.

 

[bongsaway]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/trump-predicts-economy-will-takeoff-like-a-rocket-ship-after-coronavirus-plague/2020/04/07/dece838d-5204-4551-8e5f-4fa233be73ef_video.html

The stock market doesn't move "on how the economy is doing". It moves based on the opinions, fears and speculation of a handful of gamblers.

And yet the stock market was so important under trump he bragged about it all the time and I didn't see you disagreeing with him.

 

[Mycroft]

And yet the stock market was so important under trump he bragged about it all the time and I didn't see you disagreeing with him.

I stated numerous time that "the Stock Market ISN'T the economy" and even if Trump did celebrate a rising stock market, HE knew the Stock Market isn't the economy, too. That's why he went through so much to help Main Street...which IS the economy.

 

[highroller]

That's why he went through so much to help Main Street...which IS the economy.

Like his tax cuts? No?... then his COVID bailout?....No?...

what, exactly, did Trump do that specifically helped Main Street?

 

[Peter]

Trump ate a whole lot of burgers.
That helped the local fast food place.

 

[Mircea]

The U.S. economy added 916,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 6 percent, in the strongest indication yet that the labor market is finally working its way back to pre-pandemic norms as the number of vaccinations continues to rise.

Actually, it was 971,000 new/returning hires.

 

[pinqy]

Actually, it was 971,000 new/returning hires.

No, it wasn’t. It was a total of 971,000 more people on payroll than the same time period in February. Hires and returns would be much higher.

 

[Kushinator]

Actually, it was 971,000 new/returning hires.

You don't know that. The comment is just a means to be a partisan hack.

 

[Taylor]

I fully expect Biden to jump in front of the parade and pretend that he's leading it, but the fact is that people just want to get back to work.

 

[Kushinator]

I fully expect Biden to jump in front of the parade and pretend that he's leading it, but the fact is that people just want to get back to work.

The fact is the economy will be sided by the trillion dollars in deficit spending for FY 2021.

If rGDP doesn't eclipse 5% for calendar year 2021, it will be a major letdown.

 

[iguanaman]

He said it a year ago.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/trump-predicts-economy-will-takeoff-like-a-rocket-ship-after-coronavirus-plague/2020/04/07/dece838d-5204-4551-8e5f-4fa233be73ef_video.html

The stock market doesn't move "on how the economy is doing". It moves based on the opinions, fears and speculation of a handful of gamblers.

And he was a year late with the "prediction". Everyone predicted a recovery AFTER we beat covid. The one term mistake kept saying it was over when it was really just getting worse because of his false claims about the disease and medical treatments for it.

 

[iguanaman]

Amazing things happen when you lift government imposed restrictions.

Yes they are amazing and often deadly too.....

The partial destruction of the city of 2,800 people — marked by a crater 90 feet wide and 10 feet deep

Some answers were provided in a report issued in January by the U.S. Chemical Safety Board, which pointed out a variety of factors that contributed to the explosion, ranging from poor construction and storage to subpar fire-protection systems and weak effective government regulations.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...blast-criminal-charges-deepen-mystery-n572341

 

[yankintx]

The U.S. economy added 916,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 6 percent, in the strongest indication yet that the labor market is finally working its way back to pre-pandemic norms as the number of vaccinations continues to rise.

The hiring and employment data, released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, firmly beat economists' predictions of 675,000 positions added. Totals were revised upward for January by 67,000 to 233,000 positions and for February by 89,000 to 468,000.

U.S. economy added 916,000 jobs in March, as vaccinations spur return to normal

"We can see the light at the end of this very dark tunnel.”

www.nbcnews.com

The Biden Bounce!

 

[Mircea]

You don't know that. The comment is just a means to be a partisan hack.

Actually, I do because I obtain the data from a primary source, namely the US government, instead of secondary and tertiary sources.

 

[Mircea]

No, it wasn’t. It was a total of 971,000 more people on payroll than the same time period in February. Hires and returns would be much higher.

No, it would not.

Since you don't understand, I'll explain it to you.

You are unemployed, if, and only if, all four of these conditions are true:

1) You want to work; and
2) You are available to work; and
3) You have sought work in 4 weeks prior to the CPS; and
4) You are unemployed

If any one of those conditions is true, then you are either "Employed" (if you are working) or "Not in Labor Force" (if you answered "No" to any of the first 3 questions) which is not the same as "Unemployed."

The fact that you are or are not receiving Unemployment Benefits is immaterial and irrelevant, and has no bearing on employment numbers.

The first 3 questions are asked by a vendor who has a contract with the US Census Bureau who conducts the Current Population Survey (CPS) of 60,000 respondents on the 15th of each month.

The 60,000 respondents are pre-selected and agree to participate each month in the CPS for a period of 12 months.

The results of the survey are statistically analyzed and then generalized to the population-at-large and the CPS said 971,000 workers.

Unfortunately, it doesn't end there.

The BLS then uses the X-13ARIMA-SEATS software program (which you can download for free from the US Census Bureau) and then arbitrarily uses arbitrary numbers to weight the data.

Thus we have "Seasonally Adjusted."

Perhaps there were actually 331,000 new hires/returning workers and the arbitrarily contrived numbers used for weighting in the X-13ARIMA-SEATS programs says there were only 166,000 "jobs" or maybe 270,000 "jobs" or even 470,000 "jobs."

So, the X-13ARIMA-SEATS program can under-report or over-report the number of "jobs" for a given month.

Note that in the three recessions this century when you were losing jobs by the 100s of 1,000s, the X-13ARIMA-SEATS program said you were gaining jobs, or it under-reported the amount of jobs actually lost or it over-reported the number of jobs lost.

That's why we ignore the seasonally adjusted numbers and the media hype and instead use the numbers from the CPS and compare them with the CES (Current Employment Survey).

We also look at FICA tax revenues for the month for comparison.

Back in 2019, people like you swore up and down that 75,000 and only 75,000 jobs were added in May because you don't understand that it was actually 442,000 jobs. 442,000 was statistically manipulated to arrive at 75,000.

Meanwhile....let's look at FICA revenues collected in May.

$79,888,911,673 May
$64,407,000,000 April
-------------------
$15,481,911,673

Again, the claim was only 75,000 jobs were added and others whine that wages aren't rising.

The FICA payroll tax is 12.4% for both employer and employee.

That means $15,481,911,673 was collected from $124,854,126,395 in wages. Right?

$124,854,126,395 * 12.4% = $15,481,911,673

So, 75,000 new workers earned $1,664,721 each in the month of May.

That works out to $10,404/hour.

That's one hell of an hourly wage.

 

[pinqy]

No, it would not.

.

Net change, my friend. 917k was the net change. unless no one at all left their job, total hires and returns would have to be higher

Since you don't understand, I'll explain it to you.

You are unemployed, if, and only if, all four of these conditions are true:

1) You want to work; and
2) You are available to work; and
3) You have sought work in 4 weeks prior to the CPS; and
4) You are unemployed

Since the 971,000 we were discussing are the official employment numbers from the Current Employment Statistics (CES), why are you trying to explain the CPS?
Your definition is almost right...a person is classified as employed if s/he did not work during the survey reference week, could have started work that week if offered, and actively looked for work in the 4 weeks ending with the reference week. Those on temporary layoff expecting to return to their job need not have looked.
Wanting to work is assumed if someone is actively looking, and I’m confused as to why you would include being unemployed as one of the criteria to be considered unemployed.

The first 3 questions are asked by a vendor who has a contract with the US Census Bureau who conducts the Current Population Survey (CPS) of 60,000 respondents on the 15th of each month

The pages long survey is conducted by the Census (employees or contractors), not by a third party vendor; it’s 60,000 households (around 130,000 respondents); and it takes place over the week of the month that contains the 19th, with the reference period that contains the 12th.

The 60,000 respondents are pre-selected and agree to participate each month in the CPS for a period of 12 months

Households are in the survey for four months, out for eight months, and back in for 4 months. Each month their are 8 panels, each in a different phase of their total 8 months, so that 3/4 of the respondents are the same as the previous month and 1/2 the same as the same month of the previous year.

The results of the survey are statistically analyzed and then generalized to the population-at-large and the CPS said 971,000 workers

No, the CPS for March showed 150,493,000 employed (not seasonally adjusted). The CES showed an unadjusted level of 140,400,000 (change of +1,323,000} and an adjusted level of 144,120,000 (change of +916,000). This have all been revised, btw, and will be revised again next month.

The BLS then uses the X-13ARIMA-SEATS software program (which you can download for free from the US Census Bureau) and then arbitrarily uses arbitrary numbers to weight the data.

first it’s not arbitrary, and second the purpose is not to weight the data. The ARIMA performs linear regression based on past data in order to eliminate noise.

Perhaps there were actually 331,000 new hires/returning workers and the arbitrarily contrived numbers used for weighting in the X-13ARIMA-SEATS programs says there were only 166,000 "jobs" or maybe 270,000 "jobs" or even 470,000 "jobs."

that’s not how it works. The software compares the trends for that month with the same month in all previous years (giving greater weight to more recent years) and with the recent trend of changes to smooth out the curve and minimize the effects of regularly occurring patterns.

That's why we ignore the seasonally adjusted numbers and the media hype and instead use the numbers from the CPS and compare them with the CES (Current Employment Survey).

The CES data are also seasonally adjusted using the same software as the CPS. And comparing the two surveys is difficult because they use different universes, definitions, and time periods

Back in 2019, people like you swore up and down that 75,000 and only 75,000 jobs were added in May because you don't understand that it was actually 442,000 jobs. 442,000 was statistically manipulated to arrive at 75,000

Those numbers have been revised: the changes for May 2019 are +63,000 (sa), and +673,000(nsa)

but in any case....employment always goes up in May. So an increase in May tells us nothing without seasonal adjustment to find the actual trend. Look at the following graph and note the regular ups and downs in the unadjusted numbers.

Seasonally adjusted numbers are better for looking at month to month changes and for comparing different months in the same or different year. Not seasonally adjusted numbers are better for comparing yearly averages and comparing the same month in different years.

 

[Mircea]

Net change, my friend. 917k was the net change. unless no one at all left their job, total hires and returns would have to be higher

Sophistry. There is no net change. This the raw data from BLS (I could have selected net change but did not):



As you can see from the raw data, it's 667,000.

As of the date the survey was conducted (April 15-16, 2021) there are 667,000 more people working than there were 30 days earlier.

Since the 971,000 we were discussing are the official employment numbers from the Current Employment Statistics (CES), why are you trying to explain the CPS?

For purposes of comparison. We are comparing data from two different independent surveys.

Your definition is almost right...a person is classified as employed if s/he did not work during the survey reference week, could have started work that week if offered, and actively looked for work in the 4 weeks ending with the reference week.

That is not the definition.

The definition was changed in 1994. You have to want to work, be available to work, and looked for work in the 30 days prior to the survey.

The surveyor will ask, "Do you want to work?

If you answer "No" the surveyor will skip Questions #2 & #3 and you are counted as Not in Labor Force.

The second question is, "Are you available to work?"

If you answer "No" the surveyor will skip Question #3 and you are counted as Not in Labor Force.

The third question is, "Did you look for work in the last 30 days?"

Your answer may lead to two different lines of questioning.

If you answer "No" you'll be as if you sought work in the last 12 months. If you haven't, you're counted as Not in Labor Force. If you have, you're listed on LNU05026642 as "Marginally Attached."

If you answer "Yes" you're counted as Unemployed.

Contrary to your claim, someone who hasn't worked in the last week is not automatically counted as "Unemployed."

If you are on vacation, you are not "Unemployed."

Those on temporary layoff expecting to return to their job need not have looked.
Wanting to work is assumed if someone is actively looking, and I’m confused as to why you would include being unemployed as one of the criteria to be considered unemployed.

Very obviously, you have never read the survey questions.

"Do you want to work?" is a survey question.

Many persons who are surveyed are retired, and no, they do not necessarily want to work.

Care-givers, whether caring for their children or a sick family member do not necessarily want to work.

Students do not necessarily want to work.

Yes, students are part of the survey. During the course of the year, a student might not want to work, then 8 months into year, they decide they want to work.

As I said, the respondents in the survey agree to participate for 12 months.

The pages long survey is conducted by the Census (employees or contractors), not by a third party vendor;

Sigh....a vendor is a contractor.

it’s 60,000 households (around 130,000 respondents);

No, only one person responds to the survey (which you have never read).

 

[Mircea]

first it’s not arbitrary, and second the purpose is not to weight the data. The ARIMA performs linear regression based on past data in order to eliminate noise.

Nope.

The X-13ARIMA-SEATS software program is the exact same program the Census Bureau uses when determining the federal poverty level, which it does by taking the poverty levels of the 48 lower States (Alaska and Hawai'i are ignored as statistical outliers) and averages them together using a weighting variable in the X-13ARIMA-SEATS program.

The seasonally adjusted figures are weighted and the weights are arbitrary, meaning the numbers used to weight the data for March 2021 are different than March 2020 and March 2019, all the way back to whenever.

There is no need to eliminate the noise, because there is no noise. The data is what it is.

Why don't they seasonally adjust traffic accidents or traffic accident fatalities?

Why don't they seasonally adjust murders? Or rapes?

Why don't they seasonally adjust battle casualties?

14 soldiers are killed in Afghanistan in a given month, but we'll just seasonally adjust it to 6 soldiers killed.

Funny thing is, that would go over like a lead zeppelin the Media, who'd be screaming "government propaganda" as loud as they could.

but in any case....employment always goes up in May. So an increase in May tells us nothing without seasonal adjustment to find the actual trend. Look at the following graph and note the regular ups and downs in the unadjusted numbers.

.

If employment always goes up in May, then by your own admission, there's no reason to seasonally adjust it, except for low information voters who can't read graphs and have no understanding of how things work, which is pretty much all of Congress and the Media.

 

[jpn]

Gasoline - $2.97 to over $3.00 a gallon. Rising food prices. Rising prices on everything. What Trump said would happen is exactly what is happening.

The overwhelming lesson of the past 15 years or so is that short-term fluctuations in raw material prices (and gasoline) tell you nothing about future inflation, and that policymakers that overreact to these fluctuations — like the European Central Bank, which raised interest rates in the midst of a debt crisis because it was spooked by commodity prices — are always sorry in retrospect.

Fortunately our Federal Reserve is being run by people smarter than your average conservative on DP:

The U.S. economy is going to temporarily see "a little higher" inflation this year as the recovery strengthens and supply constraints push up prices in some sectors, but the Federal Reserve is committed to limiting any overshoot, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in an April 8 letter to Senator Rick Scott.​

I think a lot of inflation anxiety is rooted in "Democrats overseeing a booming economy which Republicans did nothing to support" anxiety.

 

[jpn]

And oh by the way, due to the way inflation is normally reported, which is by comparing the current month with last year's corresponding month, it's going to show big increases. Most of that will be due to the fact of the massive deflation of last March, April and May when Covid hit.


The point here is simple: Even if the inflation index in April 2021 is precisely on the trendline of 1.6% growth, it will artificially look higher because the year-over-year comparison is with April 2020, which is in the red dip.

 

[BitterPill]

Like his tax cuts? No?... then his COVID bailout?....No?...

what, exactly, did Trump do that specifically helped Main Street?

Trump bought a lot of Big Macs, and that certainly helps main street.

Trump genuinely cares about the poor and dispossessed. Joe just sleeps.