US BANKRUPTCY AND ECONOMIC DECLINE

[Monica33]

A balanced and sensible update , imho , from Yaron Brook . BHZ Capital .​

I am perhaps biased because I am involved in Commodities Trading and see a fantastic prices spurt before the year end . From his stated reasons I have been inclined to see hyper inflation in the ghastly short term move to a possible full scale depression
YB is not as negative . Perhaps I am too pessimistic . Huge correction but just painful inflation but not the hyper type !
I am even playing with coffee presently because of the wicked frosts in Brazil earlier in the week but that is more short term speculation than trading .


Kitco News


The U.S. is headed for bankruptcy and economic decline, and the best way to protect your wealth is with gold, said Yaron Brook, managing partner of BHZ Capital.
Brook is the best-selling author of several books, including “Free Market Revolution: How Ayn Rand's Ideas Can End Big Government”. He is the chairman of the board at the Ayn Rand Institute and is host of the Yaron Brook Show.
Speaking with Michelle Makori, editor-in-chief of Kitco News, on the sidelines of the Freedom Fest 2021 conference, Brook said the government is “destructive” and is responsible for the economic troubles the U.S. finds itself in.
“COVID has shown us that the American people are willing to behave like sheep when the government dictates what they should and shouldn’t do. Also, the government is willing to take on massive powers,” he said. “We’re seeing the government move systematically towards bankruptcy. Who’s going to pay this debt?”
This high level of debt is almost impossible to be paid off now, Brook added.
“We are approaching levels of debt we saw in World War Two, but in World War Two, right after the war, we ran surpluses, so we paid it all back. Nobody’s going to run a surplus today. Politically, it’s impossible,” he said.
The more immediate consequence of high debt and government policies, including fiscal and monetary policies, is high inflation with no growth, or stagflation. However, the economy won’t reach hyperinflation territory, Brook said.
“[Hyperinflation] is quite unlikely because we know how to deal with inflation, we know how to stop it, it’s just very, very painful. I think what we’re really in for is a very long period of stagnation, maybe combined with inflation, maybe now. One thing we’re not going to see is significant economic growth,” he said.
Brook added, “I just don’t see good things happening in the U.S. economy. You’ve got massive malinvestment, you’ve got money flowing to the wrong things.”
The solution, according to Brook, is to reduce government intervention and abolish the Federal Reserve.
For the investor, assets to avoid in a stagflation scenario are risk assets like equities and long-term bonds. In fact, bonds will “get crushed”, he said.
“You want to be in something like gold, because gold actually maintains its value. It's on an investment as much as it is a store of value,” he said.

 

[highroller]

You know, I’ve been here in my entire adult life at the debt is unsustainable and we are on the brink of hyper-inflation and the only way to protect yourself is to buy gold.

How strange is it that the same people telling you this are the ones selling gold?

 

[highroller]

“We’re seeing the government move systematically towards bankruptcy. Who’s going to pay this debt?”

The government could easily avoid hyperinflation by raising taxes. This will reduce the money supply in circulation and go to pay off the debt.

 

[Allan]

Gold is a terrible investment. Since the 1980s gold has doubled in price, while the Dow has increased 3600% and the S&P 3300%.

In addition to the limp growth gold has no cashflow like equities do.

The only people who think gold is a good investment are naive investors and the gold brokers reeling them in.

 

[Fledermaus]

A balanced and sensible update , imho , from Yaron Brook . BHZ Capital .​

I am perhaps biased because I am involved in Commodities Trading and see a fantastic prices spurt before the year end . From his stated reasons I have been inclined to see hyper inflation in the ghastly short term move to a possible full scale depression
YB is not as negative . Perhaps I am too pessimistic . Huge correction but just painful inflation but not the hyper type !
I am even playing with coffee presently because of the wicked frosts in Brazil earlier in the week but that is more short term speculation than trading .


Kitco News


The U.S. is headed for bankruptcy and economic decline, and the best way to protect your wealth is with gold, said Yaron Brook, managing partner of BHZ Capital.
Brook is the best-selling author of several books, including “Free Market Revolution: How Ayn Rand's Ideas Can End Big Government”. He is the chairman of the board at the Ayn Rand Institute and is host of the Yaron Brook Show.
Speaking with Michelle Makori, editor-in-chief of Kitco News, on the sidelines of the Freedom Fest 2021 conference, Brook said the government is “destructive” and is responsible for the economic troubles the U.S. finds itself in.
“COVID has shown us that the American people are willing to behave like sheep when the government dictates what they should and shouldn’t do. Also, the government is willing to take on massive powers,” he said. “We’re seeing the government move systematically towards bankruptcy. Who’s going to pay this debt?”
This high level of debt is almost impossible to be paid off now, Brook added.
“We are approaching levels of debt we saw in World War Two, but in World War Two, right after the war, we ran surpluses, so we paid it all back. Nobody’s going to run a surplus today. Politically, it’s impossible,” he said.
The more immediate consequence of high debt and government policies, including fiscal and monetary policies, is high inflation with no growth, or stagflation. However, the economy won’t reach hyperinflation territory, Brook said.
“[Hyperinflation] is quite unlikely because we know how to deal with inflation, we know how to stop it, it’s just very, very painful. I think what we’re really in for is a very long period of stagnation, maybe combined with inflation, maybe now. One thing we’re not going to see is significant economic growth,” he said.
Brook added, “I just don’t see good things happening in the U.S. economy. You’ve got massive malinvestment, you’ve got money flowing to the wrong things.”
The solution, according to Brook, is to reduce government intervention and abolish the Federal Reserve.
For the investor, assets to avoid in a stagflation scenario are risk assets like equities and long-term bonds. In fact, bonds will “get crushed”, he said.
“You want to be in something like gold, because gold actually maintains its value. It's on an investment as much as it is a store of value,” he said.

And how will you spend this gold when the shit hits the fan?

 

[CaughtInThe]

i've told this story before (it's been a while so i think i'm remembering all the details correctly)...


an older couple that lives near me and who trusted me with money (i've been a business owner and trader for decades) asked me for my financial advice (just casually) a number of times. during Obama (or maybe at the end of Bush) they cashed out all their retirement accounts (he had multiple ones from two really good jobs with two really big companies) and went all gold.

when things recovered they were (evidently) in a hell of a mess and panicked and sold it all and took a bath. so, next i heard from them they were telling me that they were desperate. then, a few years later they confided in me that they had only $15,000 in savings (after being worth over $1 million (on paper) at one time.

last i heard they were is a really run down retirement facility here in our town.

 

[highroller]

i've told this story before (it's been a while so i think i'm remembering all the details correctly)...


an older couple that lives near me and who trusted me with money (i've been a business owner and trader for decades) asked me for my financial advice (just casually) a number of times. during Obama (or maybe at the end of Bush) they cashed out all their retirement accounts (he had multiple ones from two really good jobs with two really big companies) and went all gold.

when things recovered they were (evidently) in a hell of a mess and panicked and sold it all and took a bath. so, next i heard from them they were telling me that they were desperate. then, a few years later they confided in me that they had only $15,000 in savings (after being worth over $1 million (on paper) at one time.

last i heard they were is a really run down retirement facility here in our town.

Buy high and sell low is a great way to lose all your income.

 

[Allan]

Buy high and sell low is a great way to lose all your income.

It's known as the greed-panic cycle. Repeat until broke.

 

[Allan]

i've told this story before (it's been a while so i think i'm remembering all the details correctly)...


an older couple that lives near me and who trusted me with money (i've been a business owner and trader for decades) asked me for my financial advice (just casually) a number of times. during Obama (or maybe at the end of Bush) they cashed out all their retirement accounts (he had multiple ones from two really good jobs with two really big companies) and went all gold.

when things recovered they were (evidently) in a hell of a mess and panicked and sold it all and took a bath. so, next i heard from them they were telling me that they were desperate. then, a few years later they confided in me that they had only $15,000 in savings (after being worth over $1 million (on paper) at one time.

last i heard they were is a really run down retirement facility here in our town.

In 2011 gold was $1900. Today it's $1800.

It tanked in 2013 and didn’t recover until 2020.

In that same 7 year period the Dow doubled.

 

[CaughtInThe]

In 2011 gold was $1900. Today it's $1800.

It tanked in 2013 and didn’t recover until 2020.

In that same 7 year period the Dow doubled.

If I remember correctly, and I may be wrong on this, they had to physically store the gold somewhere. Which means they had to go get it when they needed money.

 

[Monica33]

You know, I’ve been here in my entire adult life at the debt is unsustainable and we are on the brink of hyper-inflation and the only way to protect yourself is to buy gold.

How strange is it that the same people telling you this are the ones selling gold?

Who ? Where ? When ? are these Sellers that I have not even had a hint of ?

And paying off all Debt and Obligations is north of $200 trillion . Beyond impossible .

 

[Monica33]

Gold is a terrible investment. Since the 1980s gold has doubled in price, while the Dow has increased 3600% and the S&P 3300%.

In addition to the limp growth gold has no cashflow like equities do.

The only people who think gold is a good investment are naive investors and the gold brokers reeling them in.

That's good enough for me .
Am buying more now .

We all know about the standard first line of your muddled thinking .
One major reason you buy Gold etc is when you see an Equities dump for whatever reasons . Remind yourself of the Gold price surge after March of last year and the equities horror show alongside it .
It's called Trading --- not long term investment to beat Piggy Bank Savings .

 

[Monica33]

If I remember correctly, and I may be wrong on this, they had to physically store the gold somewhere. Which means they had to go get it when they needed money.

I give in . You need Chapter one also .

Difference between Speculation , Investment and Trading .

You are completely muddling the separate disciplines .

 

[Monica33]

Buy high and sell low is a great way to lose all your income.

A bit like , Remember to keep breathing .

Or , Avoid jumping off cliffs without a parachute .

Immensely helpful .

 

[mrjurrs]

A balanced and sensible update , imho , from Yaron Brook . BHZ Capital .​

I am perhaps biased because I am involved in Commodities Trading and see a fantastic prices spurt before the year end . From his stated reasons I have been inclined to see hyper inflation in the ghastly short term move to a possible full scale depression
YB is not as negative . Perhaps I am too pessimistic . Huge correction but just painful inflation but not the hyper type !
I am even playing with coffee presently because of the wicked frosts in Brazil earlier in the week but that is more short term speculation than trading .


Kitco News


The U.S. is headed for bankruptcy and economic decline, and the best way to protect your wealth is with gold, said Yaron Brook, managing partner of BHZ Capital.
Brook is the best-selling author of several books, including “Free Market Revolution: How Ayn Rand's Ideas Can End Big Government”. He is the chairman of the board at the Ayn Rand Institute and is host of the Yaron Brook Show.
Speaking with Michelle Makori, editor-in-chief of Kitco News, on the sidelines of the Freedom Fest 2021 conference, Brook said the government is “destructive” and is responsible for the economic troubles the U.S. finds itself in.
“COVID has shown us that the American people are willing to behave like sheep when the government dictates what they should and shouldn’t do. Also, the government is willing to take on massive powers,” he said. “We’re seeing the government move systematically towards bankruptcy. Who’s going to pay this debt?”
This high level of debt is almost impossible to be paid off now, Brook added.
“We are approaching levels of debt we saw in World War Two, but in World War Two, right after the war, we ran surpluses, so we paid it all back. Nobody’s going to run a surplus today. Politically, it’s impossible,” he said.
The more immediate consequence of high debt and government policies, including fiscal and monetary policies, is high inflation with no growth, or stagflation. However, the economy won’t reach hyperinflation territory, Brook said.
“[Hyperinflation] is quite unlikely because we know how to deal with inflation, we know how to stop it, it’s just very, very painful. I think what we’re really in for is a very long period of stagnation, maybe combined with inflation, maybe now. One thing we’re not going to see is significant economic growth,” he said.
Brook added, “I just don’t see good things happening in the U.S. economy. You’ve got massive malinvestment, you’ve got money flowing to the wrong things.”
The solution, according to Brook, is to reduce government intervention and abolish the Federal Reserve.
For the investor, assets to avoid in a stagflation scenario are risk assets like equities and long-term bonds. In fact, bonds will “get crushed”, he said.
“You want to be in something like gold, because gold actually maintains its value. It's on an investment as much as it is a store of value,” he said.

Another gold seller huh? No space in the late night advertising marketplace?

 

[CaughtInThe]

I give in . You need Chapter one also .

Difference between Speculation , Investment and Trading .

You are completely muddling the separate disciplines .

you make really weird posts.

 

[highroller]

Who ? Where ? When ? are these Sellers that I have not even had a hint of ?

I find it highly unlikely that anybody who soaks in conservative media will not hear of these guys.

 

[highroller]

And paying off all Debt and Obligations is north of $200 trillion . Beyond impossible .

So you’ve never run books at a company before? I’ll give you a hint: you don’t pay all of your accounts payable at once.

 

[highroller]

This thread is really really weird. A lot of these “conservatives” here are saying that we have too many future obligations and yet they don’t say we need to raise taxes to meet those obligations.

So what are you guys want us to do? default?

Because you’re not giving any opinion other than the future is bleak, we have no way of paying for anything, and so just buy gold…

Hello! 2010 called and they want their talking points back

 

[EMNofSeattle]

You know, I’ve been here in my entire adult life at the debt is unsustainable and we are on the brink of hyper-inflation and the only way to protect yourself is to buy gold.

How strange is it that the same people telling you this are the ones selling gold?

Well just because it hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it won’t. I’m almost certain if China invades and seizes Taiwan we will bankrupt because that will show we’re not longer the top dog military and now there’s no reason to buy our debt.

 

[highroller]

Well just because it hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it won’t. I’m almost certain if China invades and seizes Taiwan we will bankrupt because that will show we’re not longer the top dog military and now there’s no reason to buy our debt.

You obviously don’t know anything about China; they are in worse debt-ridden shape than we are. Of course they don’t look at debt as a curse as much as a tool for economic expansion.

 

[Kushinator]

And paying off all Debt and Obligations is north of $200 trillion . Beyond impossible .

Why would anyone pay off future obligations for Medicare and Social Security? Maybe you can ask the big dogs?

Back in reality, dollar denominated assets continue to maintain heavy demand.

Would you like to make a wager before your inevitable permanent vacation?

 

[EMNofSeattle]

You obviously don’t know anything about China; they are in worse debt-ridden shape than we are. Of course they don’t look at debt as a curse as much as a tool for economic expansion.

Yeah, but if they establish themselves as a military top dog people will quickly flock to their debt and buy it like it’s going out of style and abandon ours. Our ability to sell debt is based solely on our military, which is now advertising for sorority chicks with lesbian moms as soldiers

 

[Kushinator]

So you’ve never run books at a company before? I’ll give you a hint: you don’t pay all of your accounts payable at once.

You also don't make 100 years of mortgage payments in the present day.

This person is extremely ignorant and has zero business posting financial recommendations on this forum.

 

[Allan]

If I remember correctly, and I may be wrong on this, they had to physically store the gold somewhere. Which means they had to go get it when they needed money.

So not only were they not earning any income from it they probably had to pay for a bank deposit box.