NOTE: I use a variety of mathematical and statistical models using past data, demographics, voter statistics etc. using government data and official voter rolls to determine electorate patterns. No forecasts use bias. Polling firm ratings compliments and credits of FiveThirtyEight.
Former TN Gov. Phil Bredesen has led in every public poll since 2018 polling began. I am moving this to Leans Democratic due to polling margins being within the threshold. This race could potentially move back to tossup quickly. I do want to note: though Tennessee does not show voter registration by party, numbers are likely to be similar to its northern neighbor, Kentucky, where Democrats actually lead in registration numbers, but those Democrats tend to vote Republican federally. However, there is one way a Democrat can win those voters back... electing a moderate Democrat. Mr. Bredesen has a centrist record and is running against a very conservative challenger. Even though Tennessee is a Republican state, Mr. Bredesen may be exactly what the party needs to win in November.