- Joined
- Jan 31, 2013
- Messages
- 30,806
- Reaction score
- 22,358
- Location
- Georgia
- Gender
- Male
- Political Leaning
- Other
Have to try picking off Bernie supporters. So, you've got to thread the fine needle of painting Biden as a radical socialist progressive while trying to steal those same votes from Biden. It's also not impossible to pick off a small percentage of blacks, even if they're just voting for Kanye. And Latinos have also been able to be picked off. Other than Libertarians, most of the third parties seem to siphon votes from the left. Maybe those are the keys to Trump pulling it off. Right now I wouldn't bet much money on Trump but I wouldn't bet much money against him either.
West is on 6 state ballots. Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Utah, all solid Trump states and on Colorado and Vermont, all solid Biden. That's it for West. So far, West hasn't made it on a single swing state ballot which the deadlines for filing has either passed or will in a week or two. West is basically a non-entity.
The Libertarians generally do pull from Republicans, but until 2016, they hadn't even been able to receive 1% of the total vote. The 3.6% Johnson received in 2016 was highly abnormal. If you look at the total third party vote it was 6% in 2016, 1.5% in 2012, 1.2% in 2008 and an even 1.0% in 2004. Unless you're a well financed Ross Perot in 1992 and 96 or a strong regional candidate as George Wallace was in 1968, way too much ado is made of third parties along the lines who who they help or hurt. My opinion anyway.
Race, among Blacks Trump received 8% in 2016, he's polling 4% today, Hispanics, 28% in 2016, today he's polling 24%. Perhaps worse for Trump is the polling of white voters, In 2016 he won white voters 57-37 over Hillary. He's leading today among whites, 49-43 with 4% stating they'll vote third party, 4% undecided. Trump certainly has his work cut out for him. But all these figures are dynamic and change constantly, except for the 2016 figures.