Ukraine Weapons Tracker seems to confirm new efforts by Russians...

[maxparrish]

Reports the Russia has made new and stronger efforts to capture some strategic cities may reflect the unusual amount of Russian equipment captured, found, or destroyed. Probably the most I have seen in 24hrs from this twitter feed... and far more I have linked here...it's amazing (especially the number of working tanks abandoned, including T80s).

 

[maxparrish]

Continued sampling...much more on twitter feed...

 

[Peacenik]

Right on, Ukrainian forces!

Give it up, Russia...

 

[maxparrish]

Right on, Ukrainian forces!

Give it up, Russia...

It's increasingly difficult to see day to day action because the Russians have managed to cut some communications. Still, I constantly check weapons tracker as it provides an indirect measure of the intensity of combat operations.

Today it is greater than I've seen it since the wars start (sadly it includes an SU lost by Ukraine). What I find interesting is the willingness of Russians to abandon working tanks and infantry carriers. I don't know if some of it is fuel related or just panic by their conscripts. (Somewhat understandable if Javlins come out of nowhere to drop on the tanks around you).

But these are obviously gifts to Ukraine, especially the more modern T80s.

 

[Ginger Ale]

Sadly I've heard Putin might start using some chemical weapons. Have you heard anything about that? It will be a horror show if he does. 😟

 

[maxparrish]

Sadly I've heard Putin might start using some chemical weapons. Have you heard anything about that? It will be a horror show if he does. 😟

Yes, I have heard that. As I understand it, it would not be the first time he has used it.

I honestly believe that the allies are not doing enough. There is no reason to take aircraft or any other weapon to Ukraine off the table without getting something in return. As it is, this is the worst humanitarian crisis in Europe since World War 2.

This video captures the utter depravity of what Russia and Putin are doing to these people and their country...

 

[Peacenik]

It's increasingly difficult to see day to day action because the Russians have managed to cut some communications. Still, I constantly check weapons tracker as it provides an indirect measure of the intensity of combat operations.

Today it is greater than I've seen it since the wars start (sadly it includes an SU lost by Ukraine). What I find interesting is the willingness of Russians to abandon working tanks and infantry carriers. I don't know if some of it is fuel related or just panic by their conscripts. (Somewhat understandable if Javlins come out of nowhere to drop on the tanks around you).

But these are obviously gifts to Ukraine, especially the more modern T80s.

My understanding is the unpaid conscripts are not allowed to fight foreign wars, are only to be stationed within Russia for homeland defense.

But then a lot of pressure is applied to get them to sign on as contract, get perks and a salary. They are pressured while quite young, and they are certainly misled to think there would be no attack on Ukraine. But once they sign up, too late. Then they have to go wherever ordered.

A tank without fuel is a sitting duck. Who could blame the crew for seeking safety?

 

[Peacenik]

Sadly I've heard Putin might start using some chemical weapons. Have you heard anything about that? It will be a horror show if he does. 😟

It already is. And sadly, I do not see any reason for Putin not to. He could hardly sink lower in the eyes of the world now.

 

[Ginger Ale]

This was back in January. We should have let them join NATO but it almost seems like we knew Russia was going to take Ukraine and didn't want to defend them because if Ukraine wins that would also start WW3. But, cell phones made this too hard to ignore this time. Biden is dealing with a clear view, and there is only so long the world can watch a madman. So, cell phones will probably be what starts WW3.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/13/us/politics/nato-ukraine.html

But, if we were proactive, instead of our constant running in fear of Putin then we might have called his bluff and had half a chance.

The only way Russia will calm back down, and not act like we've declared war is if we do what all other presidents did, ignore the taking over of Ukraine. If they win, it will be a declaration of war on Russia. Our presidents have been playing hot potato with Putin for decades. Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump have all done the ignore, or like Trump did better my friend than enemy bullshit to keep him from blowing like a volcano.

Biden got the hot potato. We either give Putin Ukraine, and try to get all the civilians out and relocate them like we did with the Jews, or we're declaring war at this point. Ukraine is not going to defeat Russia with us all cheering them on. No way.
Biden already knows this.

So, the world is in a hot mess with no exit. Public opinion will not allow Russia to take Ukraine. I'm in that boat as well. It's a scary thing for sure.

 

[maxparrish]

This was back in January. We should have let them join NATO but it almost seems like we knew Russia was going to take Ukraine and didn't want to defend them because if Ukraine wins that would also start WW3. But, cell phones made this too hard to ignore this time. Biden is dealing with a clear view, and there is only so long the world can watch a madman. So, cell phones will probably be what starts WW3.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/13/us/politics/nato-ukraine.html

But, if we were proactive, instead of our constant running in fear of Putin then we might have called his bluff and had half a chance.

The only way Russia will calm back down, and not act like we've declared war is if we do what all other presidents did, ignore the taking over of Ukraine. If they win, it will be a declaration of war on Russia. Our presidents have been playing hot potato with Putin for decades. Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump have all done the ignore, or like Trump did better my friend than enemy bullshit to keep him from blowing like a volcano.

Biden got the hot potato. We either give Putin Ukraine, and try to get all the civilians out and relocate them like we did with the Jews, or we're declaring war at this point. Ukraine is not going to defeat Russia with us all cheering them on. No way.
Biden already knows this.

So, the world is in a hot mess with no exit. Public opinion will not allow Russia to take Ukraine. I'm in that boat as well. It's a scary thing for sure.

There are mixed signals regarding the direction of the war. On one hand, Zelensky has been more confident that the tide has turned and counter offensive's have begun. On the other hand, if the weapons tracker website is a guide, it looks to me like fighting has intensified in the last 48 hours and, for the first time, I am seeing some unfortunate losses on the Ukrainian side. While the Russians are still losing vehicles to capture, the Russian separatists have also captured several Ukrainian tanks and vehicles, and unknown number of Javelins and missiles that are in working order. THAT is most unfortunate.

We've been here before. We've given Ukrainians just enough to hold out, but won't provide enough for them turn the battle in the long run. Instead of making Putin fear what we will do next, in the last two weeks we have wallowed in our own disabling fear of what he will do next.

Ukraine has only one chance, that is to make so much pain for Putin in the shorter run that he will compromise. A "long-term" strategy won't bring anything but stalemate at best, defeat at worst. Now is the time to arm Ukraine comparable to Army they face: Migs, AA missile batteries, cruise missiles, drones, MLRS systems, etc.

I am so frustrated with Biden at this point (as I have been with all the US Presidents regarding Russia). And frankly, I too am wondering if this is fear or a hidden agenda. There has been some speculation that the Russians may have informed Biden if he wants a deal with Iran, Russia will only support it if he holds back planes and dials back the help to Ukraine.

Is Ukraine being sacrificed on the alter of geo politics? Are we fumbling the ball because of stupidity or malice?

I wonder.

 

[Rogue Valley]

We are allowing Putin to draw "red lines". So far, Putin has had bigger balls than all US presidents during the past 20 years.

Regarding the Russian "Javelin cages". The default attack modality for a Javelin is to target the top of a tank.

However, this mode can be bypassed and the missile will strike wherever the crosshair is locked on.

 

[Roadvirus]

What I find interesting is the willingness of Russians to abandon working tanks and infantry carriers. I don't know if some of it is fuel related or just panic by their conscripts. (Somewhat understandable if Javlins come out of nowhere to drop on the tanks around you).

But these are obviously gifts to Ukraine, especially the more modern T80s.

Deserters. They don't want to die for Putzin's lies. That and they probably are also surrendering, knowing that at least they'd get food from the Ukrainians, since they have almost no food or expired food supplied to them by their own government.

 

[maxparrish]

We are allowing Putin to draw "red lines". So far, Putin has had bigger balls than all US presidents during the past 20 years.

Regarding the Russian "Javelin cages". The default attack modality for a Javelin is to target the top of a tank.

However, this mode can be bypassed and the missile will strike wherever the crosshair is locked on.

True. Putin has not been reactive, he has been proactive. He caught US Presidents and NATO completely off-guard on his intentions and mobilizations to attack Georgia, then Crimea, and Ukraine's Donbass region. He was a step ahead in setting up very dubious elections in Crimea, outside the purview of the UN and international observers, in creating a fake "separatist" movement in the east, repelling Ukraine's gains in the east with regular Russian troops, in covertly making his cruise missiles a long range, nuclear force in violation of the INF, etc.

Every move has been initiated by Putin, from repeated border threats and mobilizations, from reckless interceptions of NATO aircraft in international air space, to closing the Azov sea with blockades, to frequent assassinations of critics and journalists in Western countries.

The west, Nato, reacts, always flat footed...protesting, pleading, warning, hoping this man isn't as pathologically malevolent as he acts.

For a brief moment we caught Putin flat footed, with sanctions worse than he imagined and a unified commitment to Ukraine to do what it takes to supply these innocent people with conventional arms of every and any type.

Then, as always, our leader's feared making Putin too vulnerable to defeat, too upset. We drew our own red lines about limiting our weapons to Ukraine...Putin must have smiled at that one.

Any sharp strategist and their team would have used Putin's shock over the course of the war to keep him off-balance, to pace events (without fanfare) rapidly ... to create severe doubt and a willingness to compromise. NOPE, not us.

We have a coach who is afraid that if we pull ahead of the other team, the other team might fight harder.

 

[maxparrish]

Deserters. They don't want to die for Putzin's lies. That and they probably are also surrendering, knowing that at least they'd get food from the Ukrainians, since they have almost no food or expired food supplied to them by their own government.

Well, if you are out of gas...what else can you do?

Another question I have is, where is Ukraine getting its gasoline? Does it still have refineries operating? Are the allies shipping in fuel trucks? Did it stockpile huge quantities?

 

[Roadvirus]

Well, if you are out of gas...what else can you do?

Another question I have is, where is Ukraine getting its gasoline? Does it still have refineries operating? Are the allies shipping in fuel trucks? Did it stockpile huge quantities?

My guess is gasoline is coming in from other countries along with weapons.

 

[Ginger Ale]

Ugh, I agree with all of you. I think Biden is fighting the cell phone right now. Otherwise he'd ignore this problem like all the other presidents did.