Ukraine War Threatens to Cause a Global Food Crisis

[Loulit01]

A crucial portion of the world’s wheat, corn and barley is trapped in Russia and Ukraine because of the war, while an even larger portion of the world’s fertilizers is stuck in Russia and Belarus. The result is that global food and fertilizer prices are soaring. Since the invasion last month, wheat prices have increased by 21 percent, barley by 33 percent and some fertilizers by 40 percent.

The upheaval is compounded by major challenges that were already increasing prices and squeezing supplies, including the pandemic, shipping constraints, high energy costs and recent droughts, floods and fires.

Ukraine War Threatens to Cause a Global Food Crisis

A critical share of the world’s food and fertilizer is stuck in Russia and Ukraine, sending global prices soaring and foreshadowing a rise in world hunger.

www.nytimes.com

Stock up, people.

 

[RAMOSS]

A crucial portion of the world’s wheat, corn and barley is trapped in Russia and Ukraine because of the war, while an even larger portion of the world’s fertilizers is stuck in Russia and Belarus. The result is that global food and fertilizer prices are soaring. Since the invasion last month, wheat prices have increased by 21 percent, barley by 33 percent and some fertilizers by 40 percent.

The upheaval is compounded by major challenges that were already increasing prices and squeezing supplies, including the pandemic, shipping constraints, high energy costs and recent droughts, floods and fires.

Ukraine War Threatens to Cause a Global Food Crisis

A critical share of the world’s food and fertilizer is stuck in Russia and Ukraine, sending global prices soaring and foreshadowing a rise in world hunger.

www.nytimes.com

Stock up, people.

This shows the bad policy of huge monoculture agriculture.

 

[Metric Mouse]

Countries that are reliant upon fossil fuel transport and fossil fuel based fertilizers to import and grow enough food for themselves are going to have a bad time.

 

[lurchadams]

A crucial portion of the world’s wheat, corn and barley is trapped in Russia and Ukraine because of the war, while an even larger portion of the world’s fertilizers is stuck in Russia and Belarus. The result is that global food and fertilizer prices are soaring. Since the invasion last month, wheat prices have increased by 21 percent, barley by 33 percent and some fertilizers by 40 percent.

The upheaval is compounded by major challenges that were already increasing prices and squeezing supplies, including the pandemic, shipping constraints, high energy costs and recent droughts, floods and fires.

Ukraine War Threatens to Cause a Global Food Crisis

A critical share of the world’s food and fertilizer is stuck in Russia and Ukraine, sending global prices soaring and foreshadowing a rise in world hunger.

www.nytimes.com

Stock up, people.

Bullshit. We make fertilizer here and the government subsidizes American farmers NOT to grow stuff. We have the capacity to take care of every American. We just need to do it.

Quit fear-mongering.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Countries that are reliant upon fossil fuel transport and fossil fuel based fertilizers to import and grow enough food for themselves are going to have a bad time.

The top three fertilizer importing countries are (in descending order) Brazil, India, and the United States of America. China is number four, but imports around half as much as the US does.

The US is almost 100% dependent on fossil fuel to plant, grow, harvest, and ship the products of its agricultural companies (of course so is everyone else).

 

[ElChupacabra]

This shows the bad policy of huge monoculture agriculture.

Yep, but it's going to be particularly bad for Africa and Middle Eastern countries which import a lot of wheat from Ukraine.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Bullshit. We make fertilizer here and the government subsidizes American farmers NOT to grow stuff. We have the capacity to take care of every American. We just need to do it.

Quit fear-mongering.

Indeed, the US does "make fertilizer here". Of course it does so using potash that it imports via transport (that is fossil fuel dependent) from sites where it is extracted (using fossil fuel dependent machinery) so that it can be converted (in fossil fuel dependent factories) into fertilizer (with the addition of natural gas [which is a fossil fuel]) and then shipped (via fossil fuel dependent carriers) to the farms where it can be spread (using fossil fuel dependent machinery) to help grow the crops which are then harvested (using fossil fuel dependent machinery) so that they can be shipped (via fossil fuel dependent transport) to the (fossil fuel dependent) factories where it is converted into consumer products which are then delivered (via fossil fuel dependent transport) where you can drive your (fossil fuel dependent) pickup truck to buy them.

And, of course, if some foreign buyer is prepared to pay $0.02 more per unit for those agricultural products because their people are starving then you are just going to have to put up with the fact that the price of your Cheetos is going to go up because the domestic manufacturer has to out bid the foreigner in order to ensure that Americans don't suffer the effects of a "Cheeto Deficiency".

 

[MaryP]

Bullshit. We make fertilizer here and the government subsidizes American farmers NOT to grow stuff. We have the capacity to take care of every American. We just need to do it.

Quit fear-mongering.

It's not the availability but the price that is concerning. We're part of the global market. We can grow all we want, in time, but farmers will still demand the going rate or they'll sell it overseas. Count on it.

 

[lurchadams]

It's not the availability but the price that is concerning. We're part of the global market. We can grow all we want, in time, but farmers will still demand the going rate or they'll sell it overseas. Count on it.

Well, we'll just have to make sure farmers realize what the patriotic path is. The Feds can tax companies for shipping overseas if there's demand domestically. It can be done.

 

[lurchadams]

Indeed, the US does "make fertilizer here". Of course it does so using potash that it imports via transport (that is fossil fuel dependent) from sites where it is extracted (using fossil fuel dependent machinery) so that it can be converted (in fossil fuel dependent factories) into fertilizer (with the addition of natural gas [which is a fossil fuel]) and then shipped (via fossil fuel dependent carriers) to the farms where it can be spread (using fossil fuel dependent machinery) to help grow the crops which are then harvested (using fossil fuel dependent machinery) so that they can be shipped (via fossil fuel dependent transport) to the (fossil fuel dependent) factories where it is converted into consumer products which are then delivered (via fossil fuel dependent transport) where you can drive your (fossil fuel dependent) pickup truck to buy them.

And, of course, if some foreign buyer is prepared to pay $0.02 more per unit for those agricultural products because their people are starving then you are just going to have to put up with the fact that the price of your Cheetos is going to go up because the domestic manufacturer has to out bid the foreigner in order to ensure that Americans don't suffer the effects of a "Cheeto Deficiency".

Hmmm.. what if congress taxes/embargo's all goods shipped overseas where there is demand for those goods, domestically? There's enough capacity here to feed everyone one the continent, you know that, don't you? Just ask @ecofarm

 

[RAMOSS]

Yep, but it's going to be particularly bad for Africa and Middle Eastern countries which import a lot of wheat from Ukraine.

I hope that other countries pick up the pace for the duration and produce more.

 

[MaryP]

Well, we'll just have to make sure farmers realize what the patriotic path is. The Feds can tax companies for shipping overseas if there's demand domestically. It can be done.

Hope you're right.

 

[lurchadams]

Hope you're right.

Remember trump's tariffs? It can be done, my skeptical friend!

 

[Metric Mouse]

The top three fertilizer importing countries are (in descending order) Brazil, India, and the United States of America. China is number four, but imports around half as much as the US does.

The US is almost 100% dependent on fossil fuel to plant, grow, harvest, and ship the products of its agricultural companies (of course so is everyone else).

Yes, but the vast majority of fossil fuel imports to the United come from Canada and Mexico. Cutting off Ukraine and Russia will not affect the United States to the degree that it does most other nations.

Imagine being a net importer of grains at this point in time!

 

[ElChupacabra]

I hope that other countries pick up the pace for the duration and produce more.

That's certainly going to be the challenge. Given what we've learned about turning supply chains on a dime, I have my fingers crossed something can be sorted out. Wheat is a staple in many parts of the world; one whose shortage can lead to unrest.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Well, we'll just have to make sure farmers realize what the patriotic path is. The Feds can tax companies for shipping overseas if there's demand domestically. It can be done.

Now you are advocating state control of the economy!

All patriotic, right-thinking, patriotic, hard working, patriotic, honest, patriotic, real, patriotic, true, patriotic, conservative, patriotic, Christian, patriotic, White, patriotic, American, patriotic, patriots would be totally behind any corporation that sold all of its output to foreigners at a higher profit margin than it could sell its output domestically because [1] making as much profit as possible (regardless of consequences) - and that is what capitalism is all about, and [2] their doing so would spur the development of competing corporations who would service the domestic market - which is also what capitalism is all about.

What are you going to be advocating next:

[1] that the state set the prices the companies are allowed to charge;​

​

[2] that the state set the amounts that the companies are allowed to produce;​

​

[3] that the state set the design and/or quality of what the companies are allowed to produce?​

Or maybe you are actually suggesting that the state simply compensate the companies for the profits that they are not earning because they aren't being allowed to sell their products to the highest bidder so that if the company could have sold its product at (as an example) US$100 - with all of that coming from "foreign consumers" and it is only allowed to sell its produce domestically for (as an example) US$80 - coming from "domestic consumers", then the company gets paid (as an example) US$ 20 in "government money"?

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Hmmm.. what if congress taxes/embargo's all goods shipped overseas where there is demand for those goods, domestically?

If that were to happen then the Republicans would immediately start screaming "The Democrats are imposing 'state control of the economy'. See we told you that they were all a bunch of Commies." in an effort to ensure that the 2022 elections would be a total landslide for the Republicans.

Of course, if that were not to happen, then the Republicans would immediately start screaming "The Democrats aren't doing anything about the crisis and are allowing the evil globalists to send the food that Americans need off to shithole countries. That's what the Commies do - starve their own people." in an effort to ensure that the 2022 elections would be a total landslide for the Republicans.

There's enough capacity here to feed everyone one the continent, you know that, don't you? Just ask @ecofarm

THEORETICALLY there is enough capacity. It's the logistics that are the sticking point.

Of course the American corporations just might be slightly less than ravingly enthusiastic to abandoning the global market outside of the United States of America and the US government might have some itsy-bitsy, teeny-weeny, qualms about the effect on American global influence if the rest of the world gets the impression that the US government is quite prepared to allow the rest of the world to starve to death AS LONG AS American profits are protected.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

I hope that other countries pick up the pace for the duration and produce more.

CONSUMER - "I'm going to need to double the size of my bread order."

SUPPLIER - "Sorry, there isn't enough wheat to do that."

CONSUMER - "Well plant more wheat so that I can double the size of my bread order."

SUPPLIER - "OK."

CONSUMER - "Good, now when can I get twice as much bread?"

SUPPLIER - "Well, lets see now. Today is March 21 so that means that you can have your double order on August 17."

CONSUMER - "Not good enough. I want it tomorrow."

SUPPLIER - "Tango Sierra."

 

[Antiwar]

Bullshit. We make fertilizer here and the government subsidizes American farmers NOT to grow stuff. We have the capacity to take care of every American. We just need to do it.

Quit fear-mongering.

Americans aren't likely the poorer people that are going to be affected by grain shortages.

 

[RAMOSS]

That's certainly going to be the challenge. Given what we've learned about turning supply chains on a dime, I have my fingers crossed something can be sorted out. Wheat is a staple in many parts of the world; one whose shortage can lead to unrest.

I bet the american farmers will see it as a business opportunity. Nothing encourages increased production more than profit. Although, I would prefer the Ukrainians be able to sell.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Yes, but the vast majority of fossil fuel imports to the United come from Canada and Mexico. Cutting off Ukraine and Russia will not affect the United States to the degree that it does most other nations.

Imagine being a net importer of grains at this point in time!

Sorry, but there is a global shortage of oil and so the Canadian and Mexican government have placed export tariffs of $75/bbl on all oil exported in excess of the levels exported on 01 JAN 2021. Purchasers wishing to have oil exported in excess of that amount must deposit enough hard currency to pay for 30 days worth of exports in advance and must not allow that deposit to drop below 75% of the total amount predicted to be required to pay the tariff. Vendors who export oil in excess of the permitted amounts, without the export tariff having been paid by the Purchaser, will be required to pay a fine of 300% of the tariff that the Purchaser should have paid AND the Purchaser who had the oil exported without having paid the requisite tariff will be required to pay a fine of 300% of the tariff that they should have paid.

A like program applies to the raw materials for fertilizers.

 

[ElChupacabra]

I bet the american farmers will see it as a business opportunity. Nothing encourages increased production more than profit. Although, I would prefer the Ukrainians be able to sell.

There's still the turnaround time to make that shift given that current supplies are probably already allocated to their existing customers, so I'd be curious to know how much flexibility and supply there would actually be to help in a wheat shortage.

 

[RAMOSS]

There's still the turnaround time to make that shift given that current supplies are probably already allocated to their existing customers, so I'd be curious to know how much flexibility and supply there would actually be to help in a wheat shortage.

Well, right now , it's planting season, so I am sure things are more flexible NOW than they would be 2 or 3 months from now

 

[lurchadams]

Now you are advocating state control of the economy!

All patriotic, right-thinking, patriotic, hard working, patriotic, honest, patriotic, real, patriotic, true, patriotic, conservative, patriotic, Christian, patriotic, White, patriotic, American, patriotic, patriots would be totally behind any corporation that sold all of its output to foreigners at a higher profit margin than it could sell its output domestically because [1] making as much profit as possible (regardless of consequences) - and that is what capitalism is all about, and [2] their doing so would spur the development of competing corporations who would service the domestic market - which is also what capitalism is all about.

What are you going to be advocating next:

[1] that the state set the prices the companies are allowed to charge;​

​

[2] that the state set the amounts that the companies are allowed to produce;​

​

[3] that the state set the design and/or quality of what the companies are allowed to produce?​

Or maybe you are actually suggesting that the state simply compensate the companies for the profits that they are not earning because they aren't being allowed to sell their products to the highest bidder so that if the company could have sold its product at (as an example) US$100 - with all of that coming from "foreign consumers" and it is only allowed to sell its produce domestically for (as an example) US$80 - coming from "domestic consumers", then the company gets paid (as an example) US$ 20 in "government money"?

I know, but during WWII everyone stepped up - it's going to be like that, I hope it will bring us all together. Next 1/6 all Democrats and trumpists will gather at the Capitol and sing, "Kum-bah-yah

 

[Lloyd Christmas]

A crucial portion of the world’s wheat, corn and barley is trapped in Russia and Ukraine because of the war, while an even larger portion of the world’s fertilizers is stuck in Russia and Belarus. The result is that global food and fertilizer prices are soaring. Since the invasion last month, wheat prices have increased by 21 percent, barley by 33 percent and some fertilizers by 40 percent.

The upheaval is compounded by major challenges that were already increasing prices and squeezing supplies, including the pandemic, shipping constraints, high energy costs and recent droughts, floods and fires.

Ukraine War Threatens to Cause a Global Food Crisis

A critical share of the world’s food and fertilizer is stuck in Russia and Ukraine, sending global prices soaring and foreshadowing a rise in world hunger.

www.nytimes.com

Stock up, people.

it likely would not affect us, although maybe prices. Although farmers here in US would be wise to increase their growth of those wheats to make up for the shortfall.