[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

[Schrott]

Lets go back to the logistic problem. in the last 50 or so days, Russia had a logistic reach of 90 miles, or was it km. That is measured loading the truck at the depot, drive it, unload it and go back to the depot, within 24 hours. Lets say every 100 miles, Russia has to establish a depot, were fuel and ammo and spareparts and food and so on are being stored.
Yes the tanks can go further then 100 miles, but then what, if they outrun their supply chain by 100 or even 200 miles?

That part, the supply chain, logistics, will decide what happens in the next 2 weeks

 

[Juin]

I don't understand how this can be assumed. European energy prices have come down from their peaks but are still at historic highs. Would European industry remain competitive if this is the new normal, with Asia gulping down discounted Russian energy?

That is the problem with irrational and short sighted sanctioning. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had tried to point out that in sanctioning you try to maximise the pain on the other while minimising the pain on yourself. He was shouted down by the Xelensky mob. Xelensky's howls have reached the point his mob is suggesting Germany torpedo its economy! Meanwhile China and other economic rivals are waiting to benefit from European industry struggling with rising costs as they gulp down discounted Russian energy!

Russia has appeared amazingly incompetent in this war they've started, but they've managed to withdraw from a wide front and relaunch an offensive in another. Not well, mind you, but Army's on the verge of disintegrating generally don't pull off the retreat and regrouping thing. And again the Russians haven't done it well, but they've done it and they are launching an offensive.

Maybe Russia will collapse. But then again maybe not.

I believe we may be reading the whole thing wrong. Way I see it, the incompetence, or lack of foresight or appreciation was all Putin's. My suspicion was that the initial "special military operation" was all his. Intending maybe to repeat Crimea 2014 on a large scale. It is conceivable that he used a small staff, giving them political guidelines, and a large force to effect a grand scale coup d'etat. Instead of a coup d'etat, it turned into a furious war, which his plans did not allow for. The Armies are hundreds of miles apart, and not mutually supporting.

Then the whole thing is handed back to the Army General Staff. And what do they do? They come up with a radically different plan. The grand objective is reduced to much pieces. The Armies are brought back to the Donbass, they are probably now much more mutually supporting.

 

[JANFU]

I don't understand how this can be assumed. European energy prices have come down from their peaks but are still at historic highs. Would European industry remain competitive if this is the new normal, with Asia gulping down discounted Russian energy?

Russia has appeared amazingly incompetent in this war they've started, but they've managed to withdraw from a wide front and relaunch an offensive in another. Not well, mind you, but Army's on the verge of disintegrating generally don't pull off the retreat and regrouping thing. And again the Russians haven't done it well, but they've done it and they are launching an offensive.

Maybe Russia will collapse. But then again maybe not.

Russia has lost the war - Now Putin is looking for bargaining power with Ukraine.
Logistics- Russian logistics cannot compete with the west.

 

[Chomsky]

I agree. There has been much speculations that the refocus on Donbass may mean Putin is ready to settle for maybe a chunk of Ukraine; east of the Dnieper and the littoral. But it may not be up to him anymore. A trickle of western arms is already heading to Ukraine. And as long as there is a rump Ukraine left in the west the trickle may increase to a torrent. And even if the rump Ukraine signs peace terms, the west will keep supplying it more and more arms. Almost a replay of Croatia. Worst case scenario, rump Ukraine keeps getting stronger and stronger, as an economically hampered Russia gets weaker and weaker. Russia occupying all of Ukraine opens it up to partisan warfare. But that may be far easier than an independent Ukraine that can receive tons of arms from outside.





Correct

I think Putin's kinda' screwed here.

He's never going to get more than Eastern Ukraine, the flow of arms from the West will never stop, and Zelensky seems hellbent on not stopping 'till he gains his country back.

I'm not really sure what Putin can do here? He needs to eat the whole enchilada, or it may not stop. This is no longer about 'when Putin will stop', as also 'when Zelensky will stop'!

Besides the awful carnage occurring, in geopolitical terms I suspect the West is happy enough to let Zelensky fight a proxy war for them; they are attacking Putin in proxy, something they've never had the opportunity to do before. And, Zelensky seems quite content to do the work & take the blame.

 

[Chomsky]

He will never hold the east as Ukraine will not submit to that in any peace negotiations.
It will become a war of attrition, and Russia loses on that.

That might depend on whether the attrition is in material resources, or human resources.

The Russian army, in terms of personnel, is far larger than the Ukrainian.

 

[Juin]

I think Putin's kinda' screwed here.

From the looks of things as I can see it, he is in a fix. Now there may be other factors at play I am not aware of, but from what I can see, it is hard not to conclude he is in a fix.

He's never going to get more than Eastern Ukraine, the flow of arms from the West will never stop, and Zelensky seems hellbent on not stopping 'till he gains his country back.

Therein lies the fix I see. Putin may very well want to settle for eastern Ukraine, but that is only if Ukraine- not just Zelensky, I dont think it is up to Zelensky- is whipped, and choses to settle. But what if Ukraine is full of fight, and all indications are that it is, what next? Settling for just the east will be the worst choice for Putin. A Ukraine, the rump Ukraine in the west, still full of fight will draw in all kinds of arms from the west. Ukraine will keep getting stronger as Russia is battered and crushed by sanctions. Almost a repeat of the earlier case of Serbia and Croatia. Serbia started off strong, but got weaker and weaker. Croatia started off losing, but ended up with a blitz that kicked out Serbia from portions of Croatia with Serb minorities that Serbia had occupied.

I'm not really sure what Putin can do here? He needs to eat the whole enchilada, or it may not stop. This is no longer about 'when Putin will stop', as also 'when Zelensky will stop'!

My suspicion is that there is still a lot of fight ahead.

Besides the awful carnage occurring, in geopolitical terms I suspect the West is happy enough to let Zelensky fight a proxy war for them; they are attacking Putin in proxy, something they've never had the opportunity to do before. And, Zelensky seems quite content to do the work & take the blame.

Plus, Ukrainians have given every indication they want to fight. I am not so sure many in Europe would not be happy if Putin had just pulled off his blitz and kind of presented everyone with a fait accompli. But the Ukrainians are fighting. How can one not supply them with weapons?

 

[Hamish Howl]

Where is Mr Nance deployed? Is he in some combat outfit in Donbass? Or is he in some cushy rear area in Lviv?

I have no idea.

I said I hope he stomps some ass. Not "He will stomp some ass."

I know you're all in for the Russians here, so this conversation is pretty pointless.

 

[Chomsky]

I don't understand how this can be assumed. European energy prices have come down from their peaks but are still at historic highs. Would European industry remain competitive if this is the new normal, with Asia gulping down discounted Russian energy?

Russia has appeared amazingly incompetent in this war they've started, but they've managed to withdraw from a wide front and relaunch an offensive in another. Not well, mind you, but Army's on the verge of disintegrating generally don't pull off the retreat and regrouping thing. And again the Russians haven't done it well, but they've done it and they are launching an offensive.

Maybe Russia will collapse. But then again maybe not.

Yep.

Russia is not knocked-out-of-the ring! Not by a long shot!

 

[Joby]

This war is much bigger than just Ukraine.
Without a doubt most of the better intelligence experts agree that Putin has no intention of stopping with the Eastern part of Ukraine.
He intends to erase the very idea of Ukraine altogether, and he intends to take all of it, and he does not intend to stop at Ukraine.
Putin may not be using military weapons in Europe and the Americas but he is very much engaged in a global war already.

It is a global war because we are witnessing what Ann Appelbaum calls "The Twilight of Democracy" as it falls to the "Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism".
And I'd like to know, if any here are brave enough, exactly what it is about authoritarianism that IS so seductive.

It is a war between democracy and autocracy.

This is framed entirely from the western perspective (which I happily share) but to one looking from the east I imagine it's hard not to laugh at the notion that Russia is attacking inside of Europe and America in such a global showdown. In fact it's obvious that it's the western world that insists the entire world adopts it's own the mindset and, by extension, cultural mores and political systems.

This is true whether it's Moscow or Baghdad or Beijing or Kabul or Mumbai: Western Liberal knows what's best for you! Your history is irrelevant! We have the answer!

I think it's quite plausible that to the generations of Russians who were already adults when they were most "democratic" in the 90s a plurality would call it the worst time Russia had in their memory (the 1940s excepted). I think it's really not too hard to see the attraction of a leader who, even if corrupt themselves, restores the state to the level of making all citizens of that country fear it equally. The alternative of living in a nation where the gangsters scare the czar is simply untenable, as well as being shameful.

 

[Juin]

I have no idea.

I said I hope he stomps some ass. Not "He will stomp some ass."

I also hope Legionnaire Nance stomps some ass. He is geared up like he is ready to do that. I will not restrain him. Good luck to him

I know you're all in for the Russians here, so this conversation is pretty pointless.

Since Legionnaire Nance will be smoking up a few Russians I do not see how I can be faulted for some compassion for Macnine Gun Nance's future Russian victims Did you see how he is geared up? Makes Sylvester Stalone's Rambo look like a boy scout.

 

[Chomsky]

From the looks of things as I can see it, he is in a fix. Now there may be other factors at play I am not aware of, but from what I can see, it is hard not to conclude he is in a fix.

Therein lies the fix I see. Putin may very well want to settle for eastern Ukraine, but that is only if Ukraine- not just Zelensky, I dont think it is up to Zelensky- is whipped, and choses to settle.

Ultimately, If Zelensky prevails, the West will determine how far Zelensky will go. He is now our proxy, for better or worse, and he can only go as far as his supplies will take him.

But what if Ukraine is full of fight, and all indications are that it is, what next? Settling for just the east will be the worst choice for Putin. A Ukraine, the rump Ukraine in the west, still full of fight will draw in all kinds of arms from the west. Ukraine will keep getting stronger as Russia is battered and crushed by sanctions. Almost a repeat of the earlier case of Serbia and Croatia. Serbia started off strong, but got weaker and weaker. Croatia started off losing, but ended up with a blitz that kicked out Serbia from portions of Croatia with Serb minorities that Serbia had occupied.

Agreed.

But no matter, if all of Ukraine does not fall, Putin now has a well-armed, Western allied & armed, ready-to-pounce Ukraine at his door!

Putin will never get the puppet-state buffer he wanted. He lost any possibility of gaining the hearts & minds of sympatico Ukrainian nationals for generations. At best, he will annex part of Ukraine, and have the Western-Allied Ukraine at his door, with that Ukraine perhaps even becoming a NATO member, and being Western allied & armed - regardless.

My suspicion is that there is still a lot of fight ahead.

Without a doubt!

I suspect at least thorough the year, at the very least, for formal fighting.

My concern is with human attrition of the Ukrainian forces.

Plus, Ukrainians have given every indication they want to fight. I am not so sure many in Europe would not be happy if Putin had just pulled off his blitz and kind of presented everyone with a fait accompli. But the Ukrainians are fighting. How can one not supply them with weapons?

Like I said, the West will determine how far Zelensky gets to go.

 

[Joby]

I think Putin's kinda' screwed here.

He's never going to get more than Eastern Ukraine, the flow of arms from the West will never stop, and Zelensky seems hellbent on not stopping 'till he gains his country back.

I'm not really sure what Putin can do here? He needs to eat the whole enchilada, or it may not stop. This is no longer about 'when Putin will stop', as also 'when Zelensky will stop'!

Besides the awful carnage occurring, in geopolitical terms I suspect the West is happy enough to let Zelensky fight a proxy war for them; they are attacking Putin in proxy, something they've never had the opportunity to do before. And, Zelensky seems quite content to do the work & take the blame.

I think you are correct.

The total isolation of Russia from the West is a double edged sword as well: It may be that cutting the Russians off costs them enormously, but even if they were to correct their behavior at this point and fully withdraw would anything short of regime change in Moscow be acceptable for westerners to restore economic ties or even lift sanctions? I believe this is the case and if the Russians believe that (that ending the sanctions and economic pain is off the table no matter what) the cost of continuing the war or not takes on a different calculation.

If the Ukrainians have the ability to keep fighting then we should support them, as long as we are completely honest that we're not getting involved and make it clear to Ukraine "we'll **** you, but we're not marrying you."

 

[Juin]

This is framed entirely from the western perspective (which I happily share) but to one looking from the east I imagine it's hard not to laugh at the notion that Russia is attacking inside of Europe and America in such a global showdown. In fact it's obvious that it's the western world that insists the entire world adopts it's own the mindset and, by extension, cultural mores and political systems.

There is the constant claim that Joe Russian is brain washed. But it is not addressed how Joe Russian is supposed to see things otherwise. Look at England. Where is England? At the far western corner of Europe, hundreds if not thousands of miles away, yet there is Boris Johnson right there on Russia's doorsteps giving lectures. LOL One doesnt have to be brainwashed to find something odd.

 

[Chomsky]

This is framed entirely from the western perspective (which I happily share) but to one looking from the east I imagine it's hard not to laugh at the notion that Russia is attacking inside of Europe and America in such a global showdown. In fact it's obvious that it's the western world that insists the entire world adopts it's own the mindset and, by extension, cultural mores and political systems.

This is true whether it's Moscow or Baghdad or Beijing or Kabul or Mumbai: Western Liberal knows what's best for you! Your history is irrelevant! We have the answer!

I think it's quite plausible that to the generations of Russians who were already adults when they were most "democratic" in the 90s a plurality would call it the worst time Russia had in their memory (the 1940s excepted). I think it's really not too hard to see the attraction of a leader who, even if corrupt themselves, restores the state to the level of making all citizens of that country fear it equally. The alternative of living in a nation where the gangsters scare the czar is simply untenable, as well as being shameful.

Great post!

I found it realistic & balanced. Thanks for penning it.

 

[Chomsky]

I think you are correct.

The total isolation of Russia from the West is a double edged sword as well: It may be that cutting the Russians off costs them enormously, but even if they were to correct their behavior at this point and fully withdraw would anything short of regime change in Moscow be acceptable for westerners to restore economic ties or even lift sanctions? I believe this is the case and if the Russians believe that (that ending the sanctions and economic pain is off the table no matter what) the cost of continuing the war or not takes on a different calculation.

If the Ukrainians have the ability to keep fighting then we should support them,

Putin's big problem now is he is not the sole determining party to the duration of the conflict; Zelensky, with Western sanction, now also control the duration, taking it out of Putin's hands - if he so desires.

I don't believe Putin has ever been in this situation before, with this possible lack of control, much less facing the West in this manner.

as long as we are completely honest that we're not getting involved and make it clear to Ukraine

Well, that depends on what is 'involved', and how much of 'it' we want of it.

As this unfolds, I'm coming to think the West may be warming-up to letting Zelensky fight a proxy war for them!

"we'll **** you, but we're not marrying you."

LMAO!

Alright man, that was about as descriptive as can be. Well done!

 

[Joby]

Putin's big problem now is he is not the sole determining party to the duration of the conflict; Zelensky, with Western sanction, now also control the duration, taking it out of Putin's hands - if he so desires.

I don't believe Putin has ever been in this situation before, with this possible lack of control, much less facing the West in this manner.

I completely agree, and for Zelensky it may be possible to keep his country in a state of being an armed camp for quite some time. It will be interesting to see if Putin struggles domestically with the economic effects and a longer war than planned, but I personally wouldn't bet on him losing power.

If Putin thinks that western sanctions will be a permanent feature (seems likely) he will probably figure there is not much cost to attempting to force Zelensky to the peace table using means like Kissinger had the US do to get the North Vietnamese to the table and heavily bomb their cities. Should Ukraine be equipped with weapons to strike further inside Russia I think it's likely this is the road it's going down.

 

[Chomsky]

Russia does not seem to be short on their own military chips but rather their civilian ones short of the few like drones, they do not produce civilian chipsets and their few attempts both during and post soviet union failed, what works for a limited use ultra secure military computer did not translate well into the civilian market.

Not knowing this market, I have no reason to dispute you.

However, when this - below - came across the news media it was described as 'lack of parts' due to the chip embargo:

Russian tank manufacturer may have run out of parts

Sanctions imposed on Russia to cripple their economy may be starting to hurt its military capabilities.

fortune.com

Chipsets being cloned are plug and play so long as cloned right. For example if a computer used a pentium 3 for a subsystem and the main cpu was a core i7, as long as it was cloned right everything would be plug and play,

So, you're saying the cloned CPU's will fully plug & play in terms of hardware compatibility?

however from what I have seen with chinese chips some instructions never clone right, meaning they will run windows just fine and will play 90% of apps and games just fine, but that few 10% that require xyz rarely used instruction will either never work at all or perform poorly.

Interesting, so you seem to be saying the problem is not I/O compatibility, but rather internal processing?

in military gear russia will likely not ever touch chinese chips outside of drones, drones are not heavy in their doctrine and considered disposable. For the rest of their gear they would rather use elbrus chipsets even if only running max at pentium 3 speeds than trust another nations chipsets for their defense, even when the soviet union collapsed they were expanding elbrus, because they were afraid of foreign chipmakes putting backdoors into the chips used, that mentality still stands today.

Alright, thanks for the insight.

Then, I wonder what exactly could be their "chip problem"? Either it's raw materials, or perhaps they don't have a chip problem?

 

[Chomsky]

I completely agree, and for Zelensky it may be possible to keep his country in a state of being an armed camp for quite some time.

Exactly!

Ukraine is now strongly West allied, and West armed, and will be for a long time!

It will be interesting to see if Putin struggles domestically with the economic effects and a longer war than planned, but I personally wouldn't bet on him losing power.

Putin's fine IMO, despite all the Western hyperbole.

If Putin thinks that western sanctions will be a permanent feature (seems likely) he will probably figure there is not much cost to attempting to force Zelensky to the peace table using means like Kissinger had the US do to get the North Vietnamese to the table and heavily bomb their cities.

I can see that.

But, the West will continuously provide upgraded air defense in response. Much as China supplied the NVA.

Should Ukraine be equipped with weapons to strike further inside Russia I think it's likely this is the road it's going down.

It's possible. As long as the West sanctions it.

But 'how possible', I don't know.

 

[Chomsky]

Lets go back to the logistic problem. in the last 50 or so days, Russia had a logistic reach of 90 miles, or was it km. That is measured loading the truck at the depot, drive it, unload it and go back to the depot, within 24 hours. Lets say every 100 miles, Russia has to establish a depot, were fuel and ammo and spareparts and food and so on are being stored.
Yes the tanks can go further then 100 miles, but then what, if they outrun their supply chain by 100 or even 200 miles?

That part, the supply chain, logistics, will decide what happens in the next 2 weeks

Let's not forget the Ukrainians have logistic limitations, too.

 

[EnigmaO01]

Laurence Tribe says that we can access $100 Billion of Russia's frozen funds and use it to buy more weapons for Ukraine.

I'd rather see it used in rebuilding Ukraine.

 

[EnigmaO01]

So now you demand I disprove your argument while you still refuse to debate, yes you long lost this debate, you can not win based on any facts or logic and go to extreme lengths to avoid facts or logic.


Oh wait the evidence is widely available, too bad you can not reasearch before you start ad hominem attacks
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elbrus_(computer)

Their own home made chipsets and architectures both homegrown or based of risc and sparc instructions have been long in use, Easy and quick research shows their homegrown chipsets do very well in military applications but are terrible for civilian applications, but in terms of arms they make most of their chips save a few imported which is mostly for drone tech, so this chip embargo is not even going to slow down russian military tech, it is just going to deprive their civilian market as the russian civilian market is poor at producing computers, and has been since the soviet union, when they failed to make proper home computers and the soviet govt used their home grown tech for military only and urged their civilan market to clone western computers instead of designing home built personal computers;.

Please both of you knock it off. We are all on the same side here. Why must you attack each other? I value the input from both of you, but this pissing match is getting old and derails the thread.

 

[EnigmaO01]

Let's not forget the Ukrainians have logistic limitations, too.

But it appears the Russians are the masters at logistical problems. And the Ukraines have the advantage of being familiar with their own turf. If Russian resupply lines have to stick to the roads and the Ukraines know the best ambush points...

 

[Chomsky]

But it appears the Russians are the masters at logistical problems.

Fair point!

And the Ukraines have the advantage of being familiar with their own turf. If Russian resupply lines have to stick to the roads and the Ukraines know the best ambush points...

Yeah, but the Russians are now closer to their border.

We'll just have to see how this shakes out.

 

[maxparrish]

Not a word from Slovakia on the Migs offered - US has no problem, so I wonder, are they in Ukraine?

I hope & believe we are training on more complicated kit, as it will be NATO countries arming them. Upgraded kit, aside from SB drones
AC it takes a lot of time, add in not all pass. Next is maintenance - Crew chiefs of a line run the place, add in the rest of the crew needed for maint, and it takes a hell of a lot longer.

Other kit, more advanced, still takes time
UKR has received NATO radars and other kit.
Note I am just going by published sources

They need more artillery, from MLRS to mobile 155, towable 105 which also use PGM munitions. Cdn version, range 18.5 k. / 11 1/2 m
Tanks Russian, NATO has a ton of those, if that entails stripping from active units, then that is what must be done
Tons of smart/dumb mines

Light armored kit- from APCs to Stryker type kit.

PGMs as the UKR artillery uses them.

They also need a tons of logistics vehicles to move & support. From cargo trucks to fuel tenders.

People should consider that NATO is building a new Ukrainian Military, from the ground up. Never been done in a short time.

When this is over it will be interesting to see the success/failures of NATO planning/Govts going rogue and the base political/economics driving some decisions

NATO has had more than 7 weeks to get their collective shit together, and we will see how well supplied UKR is with the upcoming offensive.
I have no doubts about the ability or the courage of UKR Forces.

That said, no NATO intervention.

Regarding those Migs. Yes Romania has grounded all of its MIGS due to some safety concerns, and is getting 35 F-16s from Norway and additional F-16s from the US. Of the 111 Romanian Mig -21s, 27 are very advanced upgraded models with 4th generation avionics... installed by Israel. They would be invaluable to Ukraine.

For a country fighting for its survival, having advanced radar, tracking, and shoot down abilities would be a big advantage. But so far, there is no word. One possibility is that they want to wait till they get their F16s; another possibility is that Israel is a turd. Israel has not permitted its systems, even if they are owned by another country, to be used against Russia.

Frankly, if this is the problem they have used up all their credit with me.

Romania Should Give The MiG-21 Lancers It Just Grounded To Ukraine

Romania just grounded its fleet of highly-upgraded MiG-21 Lancer-Cs, which could give Ukraine a quick boost in air combat capability.

www.thedrive.com

 

[maxparrish]

Lets go back to the logistic problem. in the last 50 or so days, Russia had a logistic reach of 90 miles, or was it km. That is measured loading the truck at the depot, drive it, unload it and go back to the depot, within 24 hours. Lets say every 100 miles, Russia has to establish a depot, were fuel and ammo and spareparts and food and so on are being stored.
Yes the tanks can go further then 100 miles, but then what, if they outrun their supply chain by 100 or even 200 miles?

That part, the supply chain, logistics, will decide what happens in the next 2 weeks

Actually Russian logistics require a rail head within 90 miles (or KM?) from the front. Too few trucks to feed munitions and arms further.