[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

[justoneman]

NATO doesn't need to attack it to bag it.

Nothing about it anyway says the US or NATO "attacking" a Russian sub is going to set off World War III. That's hysteria talking.

Indeed, the US led NATO is talking openly about sinking the Black Sea Fleet if Putin explodes a nuclear device, so NATO perhaps surrounding one Russian sub, if that were to occur, would be small time in contrast.

You haven't given this any thought I'm afraid, firing instead in a burst on a flash impulse.

Testing a drone is not setting off a nuclear bomb. You just said something different now. Russia is not talking about setting off a bomb in the black sea.

 

[poweRob]

You think NATO is going to directly attack a Russian sub and start WW3?

There are so many lefty warmongers ready for a hot war.

Nobody believes this schtick you are playing about being Mr. Peaceful guy who cares a lot about the European citizenry. Everyone knows you're just playing a contrarian who is lapdancing putin for fun.

 

[Tangmo]

You're making a good case for the Pols but I could just as well see the Russians do it and try to frame someone else.

I don't dismiss Putin doing it. I've posted the why if not the how of Putin wrecking his already investment ruined serpent pipelines inert on the bed of the Baltic.

While I may have missed something in all of this chaos, neither have I seen Putin trying to blame Poland either exclusively or in tandem with another country. Has he?

I hesitate to say Poland because as good of a case as I might be able to make about Poland it's all I have seen that might point to anyone specifically. Yet it's mostly guesswork given no one has seen anything much about anyone doing it. We're all doing guesswork. I say simply it's most likely Poland although one just cannot rule Russia out.

 

[EnigmaO01]

Holy hell the mines.

When I was in Desert Storm I remember seeing this guy to clear paths in the mine fields Saddam had put in place. Perahps we should send them some of these;

View attachment 67416325

I bet we already have.

 

[EnigmaO01]

Invading Ukraine was probably the single dumbest foreign policy decision of the 21st century, given its pervasive and adverse impact on Russia in every respect, including, but certainly not limited to its stated goal of arresting and thwarting NATO expansion, given it's had the exact opposite effect.

And, as we all know, Putin did it anyways to the justified astonishment of most, because he's an absolute ****ing idiot who thinks himself far more clever than he really is.

Yes that's typical of narcissists.

 

[Juks]

I thought Poland the instant I heard the news of explosions in the Russian serpent pipelines inert on the seabed. I'm still waiting the long while before anyone investigating can speak of any possible findings. Or any news or intel leaks between now and whenever any authorities of Denmark, Sweden or perhaps EU or NATO might say something at all, if any ever have anything to say. Or might care to reveal anything they may have.


Because I recall well that when the Russian pipelaying junk barges took over the work in spring 2021 to complete the NS 2 Serpent landfall in Germany, which was about 60 miles at the time (of 760 mi altogether) there were incidents at the Baltic construction sites, in the German EEZ.



So yeah, I thought Poland immediately when I first heard the news of explosions on the serpent. I still think Poland as most likely.

I've seen some who also think Poland and think Poland & Ukraine, tight as the two are against NS2 and against Russia. But I don't think Ukraine unless. Unless what? While I believe Poland would act alone, I don't believe Ukraine would be an accomplice. Not unless Ukraine had the green light in advance from a major power player in the whole of this.

Totally agree, Poland is the main suspect in my view as well.

 

[Chomsky]

Invading Ukraine was probably the single dumbest foreign policy decision of the 21st century, given its pervasive and adverse impact on Russia in every respect, including, but certainly not limited to its stated goal of arresting and thwarting NATO expansion, given it's had the exact opposite effect.

And, as we all know, Putin did it anyways to the justified astonishment of most, because he's an absolute ****ing idiot who thinks himself far more clever than he really is.

"Dunning-Kreuger"

 

[Juks]

Does Ukraine even have what it takes to damage the pipe line? As far as I know they don't have a navy let alone submarines. Or are you just saying they gave Poland the green light? Strategically it makes sense as it will make sure Germany does not get any more gas from Russia. And Russia was using revenues from that gas to fight Ukraine. Could end the war sooner.

I don't think that Ukraine is directly involved, though Poland might have conspired with the Ukraine to produce a missile that would backtrack to Russia. The reason for the Ukraine to be persuaded with such an operation is that the energy crisis in Germany, if it resulted in black out, might make the Germans to try and make a deal with Russia. I do however don’t think Germany would do that , but turn elsewhere for help. That said, Poland might have convinced Ukraine that there was a risk for it. For the Poland government the nonexistence of the Nord stream pipelines mean huge revenues (transit money for Russian gas) if the gas is exported again, not overseen by the EU, hence loads of money in the pockets….

Poland has a submarine.

It will be a problem to establish who done it, but there is a chance. It is not just what we find on the site, there are also data from the military's routine surveillance of the area. Combined, it may tell us something. U-boat signatures are very specific and the timeline to be looked at is also very specific.

 

[Chomsky]

I don't think that Ukraine is directly involved, though Poland might have conspired with the Ukraine to produce a missile that would backtrack to Russia. The reason for the Ukraine to be persuaded with such an operation is that the energy crisis in Germany, if it resulted in black out, might make the Germans to try and make a deal with Russia. I do however don’t think Germany would do that , but turn elsewhere for help. That said, Poland might have convinced Ukraine that there was a risk for it. For the Poland government the nonexistence of the Nord stream pipelines mean huge revenues (transit money for Russian gas) if the gas is exported again, not overseen by the EU, hence loads of money in the pockets….

Poland has a submarine.

It will be a problem to establish who done it, but there is a chance. It is not just what we find on the site, there are also data from the military's routine surveillance of the area. Combined, it may tell us something. U-boat signatures are very specific and the timeline to be looked at is also very specific.

If the incident involved standard military vessels, including subs, I'm sure US-NATO-Others have tracking data.

 

[Juks]

If the incident involved standard military vessels, including subs, I'm sure US-NATO-Others have tracking data.

Well, Sweden most certainly has...

 

[Chomsky]

Well, Sweden most certainly has...

Among quite a few others, I suspect.

 

[Juks]

Among quite a few others, I suspect.

Yes, but not the US or NATO, more likely Russia. For the US and NATO to be collecting data within the Swedish economic zone would be a breach of respect for the Swedish sovereignty (we are not a member of NATO yet). If they have/are, it must be made in secret and therefore not that easy to do. They can collect satellite data but that is not as thorough as is required. That said. This area has always been a hotspot for Russian submarines activities and the Swedish military has increased the surveillance due to the war in Ukraine (and the threats made by Russia towards Sweden pre-war).


Then again: Two countries have made statements that stands out: The US warning Germany for that an attack was being planned and the Swedish government not following Denmark in welcoming help but politely saying thank you for the offer, we let you know if we need it and immidiatly afterwards securing the area and moving the investigation to SÄPO (secret police unit)...

Both countries have been talking about states (or a state as Swedish authorities said). Not terrorist groups, which is remarkable. And yes, terrorists could have done it, it doesn't require a submarine, only the explosion material equal to 100-200 kg of dynamite.


If it is Poland, we will not know for certain until earliest war end.

 

[PoS]

Invading Ukraine was probably the single dumbest foreign policy decision of the 21st century, given its pervasive and adverse impact on Russia in every respect, including, but certainly not limited to its stated goal of arresting and thwarting NATO expansion, given it's had the exact opposite effect.

And, as we all know, Putin did it anyways to the justified astonishment of most, because he's an absolute ****ing idiot who thinks himself far more clever than he really is.

To be fair, a lot of US military analysts predicted that Kyiv would fall in as little as 72 hours when the war started (I believed it too, and admit my mistake), but the Ukrainians have surprised everybody by their skill and tenacity.

Makes zero sense. The pipeline is a Russian asset. The damage is so extensive that it may be unable to be repaired. Russia absolutely did not do this. It is lunacy to think they did. Russia wants to sell gas to Europe. This is their major source of income.

If thats true then why is Russia still pumping gas into the already damaged pipeline? It's clear that Putin did it because he's desperate to pull Western attention away from his failings in Ukraine. Blowing up Nordstream 1 is his desperate move to sow chaos and attempt to shatter the West's alliance against him.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian blitzkrieg continues:



I'm pretty sure the Ukrainians will be able to take 25K Russian prisoners in the coming days. The Red Army is already broken, so its just a matter of time.

 

[EnigmaO01]

I am following this discussion and the discussion in the news of the possible use of a tactical nuclear weapon by Russia. So far I have not been worried that it was actually about to happen, but I read and listen more than I talk and write because I have far less knowledge than most of you posters about military matters. I just wanted to let you all know that I am always here.

My concern if Putin sets off a tactical nuke in the arctic as a demonstration, even if it's isolated, is the ecological damage. The arctic is a very fragile place.

 

[EnigmaO01]

To be fair, a lot of US military analysts predicted that Kyiv would fall in as little as 72 hours when the war started (I believed it too, and admit my mistake), but the Ukrainians have surprised everybody by their skill and tenacity.


If thats true then why is Russia still pumping gas into the already damaged pipeline? It's clear that Putin did it because he's desperate to pull Western attention away from his failings in Ukraine. Blowing up Nordstream 1 is his desperate move to sow chaos and attempt to shatter the West's alliance against him.

Are you sure he's pumping gas or it's just remnants of gas as that is one heck of a long pipeline. It's about 4 feet wide too.

 

[EnigmaO01]

I don't think that Ukraine is directly involved, though Poland might have conspired with the Ukraine to produce a missile that would backtrack to Russia. The reason for the Ukraine to be persuaded with such an operation is that the energy crisis in Germany, if it resulted in black out, might make the Germans to try and make a deal with Russia. I do however don’t think Germany would do that , but turn elsewhere for help. That said, Poland might have convinced Ukraine that there was a risk for it. For the Poland government the nonexistence of the Nord stream pipelines mean huge revenues (transit money for Russian gas) if the gas is exported again, not overseen by the EU, hence loads of money in the pockets….

Poland has a submarine.

It will be a problem to establish who done it, but there is a chance. It is not just what we find on the site, there are also data from the military's routine surveillance of the area. Combined, it may tell us something. U-boat signatures are very specific and the timeline to be looked at is also very specific.

I think someone from Russia will snitch on Putin before or after this is all over if in fact Russa was responsible. Remember there are a lot of unhappy Russians and Putin is on his way out if not sooner, later. The pressure to make him go away is getting stronger and stronger in Russia. A complete rout of the Russians from Ukraine will seal his fate.

 

[JANFU]

 

[JANFU]

 

[Schrott]

Are you sure he's pumping gas or it's just remnants of gas as that is one heck of a long pipeline. It's about 4 feet wide too.

The estimate for the pipelines to fill completely with water is around 2 weeks. Till than we will see on and off gas leaking

 

[JANFU]

 

[EnigmaO01]

The estimate for the pipelines to fill completely with water is around 2 weeks. Till than we will see on and off gas leaking

Make sense but gas can travel through water. Perhaps not horizontally but it definitely happens vertically due to being lighter than water.

 

[Chomsky]

Yes, but not the US or NATO, more likely Russia. For the US and NATO to be collecting data within the Swedish economic zone would be a breach of respect for the Swedish sovereignty (we are not a member of NATO yet). If they have/are, it must be made in secret and therefore not that easy to do. They can collect satellite data but that is not as thorough as is required. That said. This area has always been a hotspot for Russian submarines activities and the Swedish military has increased the surveillance due to the war in Ukraine (and the threats made by Russia towards Sweden pre-war).


Then again: Two countries have made statements that stands out: The US warning Germany for that an attack was being planned and the Swedish government not following Denmark in welcoming help but politely saying thank you for the offer, we let you know if we need it and immidiatly afterwards securing the area and moving the investigation to SÄPO (secret police unit)...

Both countries have been talking about states (or a state as Swedish authorities said). Not terrorist groups, which is remarkable. And yes, terrorists could have done it, it doesn't require a submarine, only the explosion material equal to 100-200 kg of dynamite.


If it is Poland, we will not know for certain until earliest war end.

I would not suspect the bolded would deter the U.S. from collecting data in some manner, to be honest.

Perhaps the data would not be as accurate as with Sweden's assistance (though I don't know that).

But I doubt there's much standard-class military vessels that escapes the U.S.' attention, regardless of location. Satellite detection, at the least.

 

[EnigmaO01]

His sister is a psycho!

 

[Fledermaus]

Honestly, why say that even if it were to be true? Does the American want to steal the achievements of the Ukrainians (with a good fellow competitor of the UK)? Make the Ukrainians success into the US success? Describe Zelensky and the Ukrainian army as US puppets, just following orders ....


So typical...

I say; HELL NO! The successes of the Ukrainian army are the Ukrainian army's and soldiers successes. That is what history will say, no matter how hard you try to change it...

The Ukrainian soldiers have been trained and are currently trained by almost every country, including Sweden. They get intel from almost every country, even Israel, and they have a pretty good intel operation on their own. What they do with that training and intel and how they execute it is on them alone. What suggestions from others they adopt and what they dismisses is on them alone.

Let us give credit where credit is due

Tangmo is a warrior wannabe but never was.

You have to excuse him.

 

[EnigmaO01]

By whom?