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[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

I think you are wrong. I think we will know much sooner than you think. If not from an inside source, soon after this is over we will probably know.
I hope you are correct. I am much too curious to like not knowing...

On the other hand, UK and Sweden kept secrets from the WW2 secret for 40-50 years without anyone having a clue (For example: Sweden cracked German and Russian codes even before the WW2 started, the UK had constructed a fantastic computer (Colossus) which they demolished at the end of the war and whose blueprints they gave to the US.) And Germany is quite good in keeping secrets as well. Denmark, Poland and the US though, that are the weak links...
 
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It looks very much like the elite in southern and central Russia (Moskva and St Petersburg) are trying to rush the recruitment in North Caucasus, Ural, Siberia and Russian far eastern, maybe to avoid recruitments on their own. They are almost saying it out load in state TV.

Since it is the elite in southern and central Russia that are running the war and backing Putin, it shows how they think they are the masters and the others the slaves. Ironically enough, that are the parts of Russia that are European, so you could say, Europeans are running Russia...
 
At least 23 people have been killed and 28 injured after a Russian missile hit a humanitarian convoy in the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhya, regional governor Oleksandr Starukh said, according to Reuters. "Currently, 23 dead and 28 injured. All civilians," writes Oleksandr Starukh on Telegram.

 
Ukraine has fully retaken the city of Kupyansk. Already earlier in September, Ukrainian soldiers captured the city after a major offensive in the Kharkiv region. But Russian forces maintained their positions on the east bank of the Oskil River that runs through the city, and shelling has continued ever since.

 
Maybe the Ukraine should wait with retaking the annexed areas until Russia has restored them;).Putin could always use the million new "recruits" he has...

 
The Norwegian Skiing Federation announced that they do not intend to attend a meeting with the International Skiing Federation (FIS). This as Russian and Belarusian representatives are invited to the meeting.


This is so good... Without Norwegian skiers, the sport is equal to a recreational sport. It does not matter what FIS does or doesn't do or if they get money from Putin or not. The sport is nothing without Norway at current time.

Putin is furious...
 
I find that Tweet somewhat suspect and hard to believe, at this point. This makes absolutely no sense for Lukashenko. He couldn't even get the regular army to go over, and now he's going to mobilize or do something to send 120K?

Barring Putin putting an existential gun to Lukashenko's head (possible - I suppose), I can't imagine this.
I think Putin is indeed putting a lot of pressure on Lukashenko to join in his invasion, but the latter knows that his military will revolt if they do, so Lukashenko is just probably stringing Vlad along at this stage.

Update: looks like the Russians know Lyman is lost, and now theyre just trying to save their troops:

 
Ukrainian forces are spoiling Putin's celebrations.

 
I think Putin is indeed putting a lot of pressure on Lukashenko to join in his invasion, but the latter knows that his military will revolt if they do, so Lukashenko is just probably stringing Vlad along at this stage.

Update: looks like the Russians know Lyman is lost, and now theyre just trying to save their troops:


Hopefully Ukraine can keep them from fleeing and takes them all prisoner
 
While I tend to agree with max that the wording was poor, I think the US isn't in a position (domestically) for Biden to declare, 'you nuke, we nuke'.
Yes Biden does not speak for Europe and he knows it. Unlike like his idiot predecessor he doesn't speak bravado talk unilaterally. He actually respects NATO members and confers with them.
 
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Yes Biden does not speak for Europe and he knows it. Unlike like his idiot predecessor he doesn't speak bravado talk unilaterally.
It's also just a month before an election where a bunch of American Putinists and Orbanists could come to power. Giving them easy political grist would be stupid. These are exactly the people who would rubberstamp Putin's invasion.
 
I admire their ability to recognize where they made mistakes.
Very few sources have that credibility.

Denys Davydov is good like that, too.

Things is with ISW is that their assessments seem to always bear fruit days or weeks (or months!) down the road. They seem to be able to excel in both the micro & the macro, leading me to assume the have a team with a wide body of knowledge.
 
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