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Ukraine War Thread

Sven Karma

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It buys time, does what his supporters wanted/demanded. It will not play out well for many of those poor bastards
Well, they do have to go to training camps for a month. And the onset of Ukrainian winter is probably not going to help facilitate deploying them to the actual front. I've read an article suggesting it's planned to be a lot more than 300,000 called up. Which is fine in theory but given the somewhat deteriorated state of Russian logistics we've all witnessed, more bodies = more bottlenecks.
 

maxparrish

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Surprising, since you're the threads number one purveyor of ridiculous, pro-Ukrainian hopium.

In the meantime I did a quick check of CNN's analysis after the first few days. In sum they reported:

1) The Russian advance is not quite as quick as anticipated.
2) The Ukrainians are stiffly resisting more than anticipated.
3) The Russians seem to have some problem with logistics and fuel, using more than they planned for.
4) Their logistics are vulnerable.
5) The Russians are vastly more powerful, so things can turn quiet quickly as the Russians keep up their assault.
6) Kyiv and Kharkiv did not fall on the first night of the war, so it make take several days to play out.

Try as I might, I saw no prediction from "generals" that Russia would lose. What I heard and read was that there was hope that Ukraine could put up a fight and resist a little longer than expected.

So as I said, very few actually thought the standing Russian army was as bad, or Ukraine as good, as it turned out. Heck, I was better informed than many any I gave Ukraine 6 weeks to capitulation.
 

EnigmaO01

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Besides their obvious physical calamities, many look like they are suffering psychological shock. The way they stare straight ahead, unblinking, gauntly, emotionless, when walking.

I can't even begin to imagine all they endured, and the physical & mental toll it took on them.
They look like it hasn't sunk in yet they are free. And there was a pregnant woman? I hope she wasn't raped.

No comparison whatsoever but I remember busing out of basic training thinking "Wow it's really over!" I didn't think I'd ever get out of there! :ROFLMAO: 3 drill instructors screaming at you each one one his own 8 hour shift for a few months gets to ya! Then we get to tech school and we're side stepping in the lunch line like we did in basic. Somebody from one of the tables says, "Jesus Christ you don't need to do that here!"

But hell no I'm not comparing basic to what these people have gone through. I just have an inkling of the feeling where something hasn't sunk in yet.
 
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JANFU

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Well, they do have to go to training camps for a month. And the onset of Ukrainian winter is probably not going to help facilitate deploying them to the actual front. I've read an article suggesting it's planned to be a lot more than 300,000 called up. Which is fine in theory but given the somewhat deteriorated state of Russian logistics we've all witnessed, more bodies = more bottlenecks.
1 month of training, doubtful.
Some not all.
Reservists mobilized & out of the army for a few decade or more, infantry & will no doubt be fast tracked to the front
What kit they have, not the good stuff for sure

Those ethnic minorities, high number mobilized, will Russia break them into separate units, or combine them as a mix? Most of are quite familiar with how long an ethnic group can hold a grudge. Centuries

Lastly, not much info is coming from either front - Kharkiv & Kherson
Not a shut down, but still limited
 

JANFU

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That I wasn't aware.

But put me first in line for the book. I'm serious.
World has a record of their condition going into captivity. Video was one part

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The fate of hundreds of Ukrainian fighters who surrendered after holding out against punishing attacks on Mariupol’s steel factory hung in the balance Thursday, amid international fears that the Russians may take reprisals against the prisoners.

The International Committee of the Red Cross gathered personal information from hundreds of the soldiers — name, date of birth, closest relative — and registered them as prisoners of war, as part of its role in ensuring the humane treatment of POWs under the Geneva Conventions.

Amnesty International said in a tweet that the Ukrainian soldiers are now prisoners of war and as such “must not be subjected to any form of torture or ill-treatment.”
 

maxparrish

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Surprisingly a very intelligent animal that knows the jig is up and wants to escape. Pigs are supposed to be smarter than dogs. Smarter than these two guys anyway. The gate is not high enough you morons!

What's happening here?

It's obvious. The two guys that are dressed in civilian clothes are hungry Russian conscripts trying to escape the war zone, with a stolen pig. As Ukrainian pigs are meaner than Russian conscripts, it's going to bust their asses when it get's out... and it won't be pretty.
 

Chomsky

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They look like it hasn't sunk in yet they are free. And there was a pregnant woman? I hope she wasn't raped.

No comparison whatsoever but I remember busing out of basic training thinking "Wow it's really over!" I didn't think I'd ever get out of there! :ROFLMAO: 3 drill instructors screaming at you each one one his own 8 hour shift for a few months gets to ya! Then we get to tech school and we're side stepping in the lunch line like we did in basic. Somebody from one of the tables says, "Jesus Christ you don't need to do that here!"

Haha! Funny stuff!

Sounds like my Old Man spit-shining his shoes 'till his very last days.
 

W_Heisenberg

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I think I am more inclined to wait and see. I have to say Putin appears to be more reacting to developments than shaping them. Maybe the mobilisation will work out his way. But my question is why did he not have that in place before February? Or immediately after the Kyiv phase? Until the mobilisation bears fruit, I will rather wait and see

1. Putin is not a very good military strategist. He is totally out of his element when it comes to waging an actual full-scale war against a trained, motivated, well-armed opponent with sufficient manpower.

2. The mechanisms and structures he put in place to maintain power as a virtual dictator also had the side effect of creating an information environment where he was not receiving accurate information about the world.

3. Putin accurately perceived mobilization would have negative political consequences for himself personally.
 

EnigmaO01

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3. Putin accurately perceived mobilization would have negative political consequences for himself personally.
But apparently he thinks he is out of options? Should we call this a last ditch effort at salvaging his offensive, or as they say in football a "Hail Mary Pass?"
 

W_Heisenberg

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Surprising, since you're the threads number one purveyor of ridiculous, pro-Ukrainian hopium.

Time and time again the Ukrainians keep defying conventional wisdom by securing for themselves victory on the battlefield, and time and time again the Russians keep losing. The Ukrainians have done a marvelous job defending themselves against Russia's aggression. And the Russian mobilization we are now seeing is a direct result of the Ukrainian victory in the Kharkiv offensive.
 

JANFU

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Felis Leo

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I see a lot of young men of draft age in that picture. Farther down a tweet says Georgia is no longer accepting males.

That is unfortunate. If I had my way, I would provide Georgia copious foreign aid to accept as many Russian men and boy as possible in order to drain them of recruits.
 

EnigmaO01

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I would say if they are found they ought to be fed alive to starving bears.

But bears deserve to eat better.
I would prefer to castrate them in turn, but I'd hate to have someone defile themselves by going down to that level.
 

Juin

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3. Putin accurately perceived mobilization would have negative political consequences for himself personally.


Problem is he wound up with worst of both worlds: the Kharkiv debacle and whatever consequences of mobilisation he may have been trying to avoid.

I find it astonishing that someone facing the massive assets of Nato and EU goes about the business nonchalantly. Very strange. I recall we had a lot of back and forth over mobilisation; with you saying he must mobilise or loss; me insisting it is his business, in the sense that it should be expected that he will be doing everything, including mobilisation if that is what it takes. Then it turns out it wasnt a priority for him.:)
 

Felis Leo

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I never see russians fight back against the police. There could be a big crowd of citizens, and a few police will target one, knock him down, sometimes for no apparent reason, and drag him away . . . while everyone else just passively watches.

Just once I want to see a real reaction to that sort of bullying.

For a culture that clearly values macho behavior and the image of the dominant male, they're all so cowed and compliant.

Respect for state institutions and officers seems to run pretty high in Russia.
 

maxparrish

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But apparently he thinks he is out of options? Should we call this a last ditch effort at salvaging his offensive, or as they say in football a "Hail Mary Pass?"

He isn't out of options, its just that any attempt to take the off ramp after all the blood spilled would end in his "termination". Russia appears to be in some kind of gang warfare, with people of every political view and/or friendship getting bumped. Putin is the only indispensable one to most of the henchmen because no one else has the backing of the sheeple. Sergei Shoigu was once Putin's only popular threat, but the threat was never real. Not only is he tarnished by the failure of the invasion, Russian's will never support an ethnic 'non white' as their nation's leader.

What Russia needs is one of the highest ranking general in Russia to get a spine, to channel Zhukov. After Stalin's death both Khrushchev and Zhukov wanted to end Beria's power. Zhukov made sure that his troops replaced all the normal KGB security, surrounded the capital with his people and military, and arrest Beria.
 
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