• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Ukraine War Thread

JANFU

Land by the Gulf Stream
Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Monthly Donator
Joined
Dec 27, 2014
Messages
45,561
Reaction score
22,268
Location
Best Coast Canada
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Slightly Liberal

Quag

DP Veteran
Joined
Apr 8, 2012
Messages
32,145
Reaction score
15,036
Location
Earth
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Russia will reach the Dnieper river, put up a secured border and call everthing east of the river, Russia. This is not going to take that long. This is not like an endless war in a country on the opposite side of the world, as Vietnam was for the US. Frankly, it was a poor analogy.
Actually it was a very goof analogy but you cant admit it because only spew Russian propaganda
 

NewfieMom

I read, therefore I am.
Bartender
Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Monthly Donator
Joined
Sep 10, 2020
Messages
5,813
Reaction score
5,230
Location
New England, United States
Gender
Female
Political Leaning
Very Liberal

Juin

Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 4, 2021
Messages
6,537
Reaction score
2,108
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
Propaganda of all types should be ignored. I don't hold it against anyone if they occasionally fall for misinformation. Deliberate refusal to hear anything to the contrary is a different matter.
If the Russians posted more that just propaganda they would be listened to more.


Methinks thou doeth protesteth too much!


Notice how Juin brings it up here, but curiously fell silent when he was asked if Russia was above killing POWs.


My take is that the POW tragedy was a Ukrainian hit. Not out of malice or anything. Just a snafu of war. You can carry on your Angelic Ukrainians and Demonic Russians. War is terrible and full of tragedies. But your wars are all surgical and precise, at least as far as the intrepid, agile and precise Ukrainians are concerned. geez
 

Juin

Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 4, 2021
Messages
6,537
Reaction score
2,108
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
Juin, your examples from the Civil war do not cut it. 99% of the US Generals were just friking military morons. The troops they lead had their officers elected, even their senior officers.

If I am not mistaken I pointed out in name the Generals I was alluding to. I made mention of Robert E Lee, Longstreet, Thomas Jackson, McClellan, AP HIll, DH Hill. So those are the one I can be asked to address.


Lee was a 1 trick pony, had no idea of a overall strategic plan. Had only 1 solution to a battle. The Union Generals, should have not made Corporal.
The incompetence of military leadership in the civil war is just epic, including the troops.

The one who finally got it was Grant, but the rest are just pretenders, actors. From the military side, that war is a embarrassment, of incompetence and nothing more, costing 100 of thousand soldiers their lives.
Nothing to be proud of.


You have to do more than that. When I used Rober E Lee as an example I did not just make vague references. I selected an example: the Peninsula campaign, and went into a detailed explanation- at least as far as a forum post can allow- on how he pulled a victory out of a near hopeless situation.

I will like to ask you how you believe the Confederate Army of Northern Virginia could have been better handled. Was the Army of Northern Virginia better off under Lee's predecessor Joseph E Johnston? And more to the point, are you seriously saying the handling of the Army of Northern Virginia by Lee in the Seven Days of Battles was not brilliant?

Lee fought many other battles, you are welcome to make your pick if the Peninsula Campaign is not your preferred choice.

And you are also welcome to select European Generals you like to make your point.

As to Grant, you are also welcome to contrast him with Lee, to demonstrate how you came about with the conclusion that he was far superior. And before you go into it I will like to point out to you that Lee almost always took to the field against superior odds, while Grant had the superiority on his side. That has to be factored in when you judge Generals
 

anatta

DP Veteran
Joined
Oct 20, 2013
Messages
10,138
Reaction score
4,538
Location
daily dukkha
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Yes, that makes it totally different.
What's Putin's background, again?
The difference is the USSR was about domination of the world under Communism.

Ironically NATO expansion and weaponization of Ukraine even before the invasion was about dominating Russia
and creating a new Cold War 2 for no sane reason.

We couldn't simply take the victory of the fall of the USSR and the demise of Russian communism.
We had to exorcise Russia out of any western ties. China approves and welcomes The new Sino-Russian partnership
 

Juin

Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 4, 2021
Messages
6,537
Reaction score
2,108
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
It's cool that you like studying military history, especially stories about military history, and myths about military history, and, I suppose, military strategy (of which I've seen absolutely no evidence of), but the fact that this is an interest of yours doesn't make you immune from criticism. And I don't know why you think it would.


Criticism is fine. Yours is more like a juvenile attempts at putdowns. There are actually lots of people in the forum whose contributions on military topics I truly appreciate and find educative. At the top of the list has to be @maxparrish . I dont know whether he has a military background or not, but he does have a natural feel for the big picture; he usually starts with a careful listing of the pieces on the field; their potentials and dispositions; then how and how much of a new piece may bring about a desired outcome. That is genius. Now, I must point out that mine is not an idle praise, because on the other hand I cannot stand maxparrish's political views at all. :)


There is a reason why I gave you an example of General Lee splitting his forces in the same geographic area a year later. If I can give you an example of the same general splitting his forces in the same geographic area a year later -- within the same geographic scope and even within a similar time frame -- you can't make an argument about scope, and therefore your reference to Gen. Lee and some hypothetical advice on his part cautioning against splitting one's forces is bullshit.


The question that came to my mind first and foremost was wether my interlocutor even understands what the likes of Bonaparte meant when they caution against splitting of forces. Your example demonstrated to me that you did not.
 

Yakshi

Why isn't laughing gas served in schools?
DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 16, 2019
Messages
9,247
Reaction score
9,234
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Very Liberal
The difference is the USSR was about domination of the world under Communism.

Ironically NATO expansion and weaponization of Ukraine even before the invasion was about dominating Russia
and creating a new Cold War 2 for no sane reason.

We couldn't simply take the victory of the fall of the USSR and the demise of Russian communism.
We had to exorcise Russia out of any western ties. China approves and welcomes The new Sino-Russian partnership

Your argument in visual form:

1659574245175.png

i.e., Chernobyl.

Nobody thinks about a third-world gas station while it is pumping gas.

Russia is a former superpower built on decades of propaganda celebrating its own superiority due to its Russian-ness, and so naturally it can't accept its new role as a gas station with a pit toilet in the back--a role that Putin was freaking ecstatic to accept, by the way. Now, could possibly end up reliving the economic agony of the 1990s. And thank God for that.

I wish they'd make it a reality show for the rest of us.

Putin is one of the richest men in the world from pumping gas. He had the golden ticket, until he decided he was a dance mix of Peter the Great and Stalin.

Now he's screwed worse than Russia, and that's saying something.
 

Juin

Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 4, 2021
Messages
6,537
Reaction score
2,108
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
justoneman said:
Ukraine needs to win some big battle. Standing ground and losing is not winning a battle. Retreating is not winning a battle.


It's not necessary for Ukraine to win "some big battle" in order to win the war. It would be nice, but it's not necessary. Vietnam is a good example of an inferior army losing repeatedly to a superior army, yet ultimately winning the war.


I believe Ukraine has to win "some big battle". Ukraine cannot afford to be seen as a hopeless cause. Ukraine's excellent performance in the Kyiv phase of the campaign played no small part in galvanising external financial and military assistance; at great cost to the donors. It bodes ill for Ukraine if she starts looking like a lost cause. The west can only throw good money after bad money only for so long.


And with the Russians deliberately targeting civilians with missile strikes, murdering civilians (Bucha), murdering POWs (Olenivka), and also castrating POWs we are now in a situation where NATO countries are now more motivated than ever to support the Ukrainians.


You are definitely galvanised. But there are indications that there are cracks in the front.
 

Juin

Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 4, 2021
Messages
6,537
Reaction score
2,108
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
There is now evidence that the Russians

1) pre-dug graves for the POWs.
2) housed the POWs in a separate facility prior to the bombing.
3) bombed the POWs inside the target facility themselves.

And given the fact that the Russians already publicly declared their intent to execute the Azov prisoners, absent evidence to the contrary, it's more likely than not that the Russians engaged in a war crime and murdered the POWs.


"Evidence"! You confuse claims with evidence.

I believe the strike was incoming from the Ukrainian side. Not out of malice by the Ukrainians. Just another day in war. The clinical name for such snafus is 'collateral damage'. Collateral damages are an unfortunate part of all wars. The US has more than its share of collateral damages. Why Ukraine is somehow above that beats me
 

Yakshi

Why isn't laughing gas served in schools?
DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 16, 2019
Messages
9,247
Reaction score
9,234
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Very Liberal
Russia's underbelly is probably headed fr another war
Armenia backed by Russia.
Azerbaijan went thru a massive upgrade in military kit.
Backed by Turkey and a large buyer of weapons from Turkey & Israel

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nagorno-Karabakh_war


Now we just need the resentment to resume brewing in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. The quicker Russia snaps under the strain of its own delusions as the Policeman of Asia, the better.
 

Juin

Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 4, 2021
Messages
6,537
Reaction score
2,108
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
Ummmm...I think he was suggesting that in this particular situation, Russia is much like the US in fighting a war where the locals (VC and NVA) don't grow so tired because it is their homeland, and their suppliers aren't losing troops.


There were two sets of locals: the VC and NVA on one hand and the Saigon affiliated south Vietnamese. Some of the locals were more determined than the others.


In other words, it is possible the Ukrainian people and its suppliers can win by simply waiting for the Russian public to tire of the war.
It's a very costly strategy, and I think probably needlessly bloody, but it is at least possible.


Wont that depend on how the Russian public feels about novorussya?
 

Juin

Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 4, 2021
Messages
6,537
Reaction score
2,108
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
Russia will reach the Dnieper river, put up a secured border and call everthing east of the river, Russia. This is not going to take that long. This is not like an endless war in a country on the opposite side of the world, as Vietnam was for the US. Frankly, it was a poor analogy.


Agree. The Russian public can fail to understand what was the point of an endless war in Afghanistan. The Russian public correctly could not see any connection to far off Afghanistan; it was costly and a drain; and it was not even clear how Soviet victory in Afghanistan enhanced the Soviet Union in anyway.

Novorussya, as the east and littoral of Ukraine appears to be referred to by Russians, is seen as territories that are historically Russian, has Russian minorities who increasingly want out, and worse have governments that are increasingly anti Russia and anti Russian.
 

Juin

Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 4, 2021
Messages
6,537
Reaction score
2,108
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
It's true that some ethnic Russians who are Ukrainian citizens - rebelling against the Ukrainian government -- are fighting for the Russian government. It's also true that ethnic Russians -- before this war -- represented approximately 17% of the Ukrainian population and were heavily concentrated in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, which Russia now occupies. So the impact of Russian ethnicity only goes so far. The further West that Russia ventures, the less tenable your ethnic argument is.


Ideally, Russia should keep- if she can- east and littoral of Ukraine. That is as far as the border with Moldova. But that will depend on what kind of threat the rump Ukraine poses for Russia. If there is a program to arm it as Croatia was armed, then it may not be wise for Russia to allow it standing. Again, that is if Russia is able to do that.
 

maxparrish

Conservatarian
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 28, 2011
Messages
11,361
Reaction score
6,440
Location
SF Bay Area
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
Russia will reach the Dnieper river, put up a secured border and call everthing east of the river, Russia. This is not going to take that long. This is not like an endless war in a country on the opposite side of the world, as Vietnam was for the US. Frankly, it was a poor analogy.

Except you are mostly pointing out irrelevant differences between the conflicts. Whether "half way" around the world or not, the only relevant factors are the differences in will power, military power, economic power, and defensible terrain.

Russia's intervention in Ukraine, like the US intervention in Vietnam are subject to similiar constraints. In this case Russia's economy and military is far more damaged by the war than that of the US in Vietnam, so what remains is will power. Being a ruthless autocracy, Russia's will power (at the moment) is still intact.

So the questions become: a) what is Ukraine's will power compared to that of the US? At the moment I have no concern regarding Ukraine's will power. It's back is against the wall and it knows it's a fight to a bitter end and b) the US is a democracy, public opinion is a factor. It's will power seems to be there, but possibly conditional.

Another unknown is how viable is a partisan insurgency war, should Ukraine be more or less occupied? Unlike Vietnam the flat and open terrain sucks for such operations.

As I said, much depends on who loses their will to fight first, and if Ukraine can sustain fighting forever on the level of an insurgency.

As for the Dnieper, the chances of Russia reaching it and securing it as a new border near zero in this campaign season. The rains will come in October, and I doubt the front will move after that.
 

Juin

Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 4, 2021
Messages
6,537
Reaction score
2,108
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
The difference is the USSR was about domination of the world under Communism.

Ironically NATO expansion and weaponization of Ukraine even before the invasion was about dominating Russia
and creating a new Cold War 2 for no sane reason.

We couldn't simply take the victory of the fall of the USSR and the demise of Russian communism.
We had to exorcise Russia out of any western ties. China approves and welcomes The new Sino-Russian partnership


I have a feeling we havent seen the last chapter of this latest neocon episode. Right now the war in Ukraine is masking questions that are bound to start gaining prominence by say next year, if not even later this year. Is Nato still a defensive military organisation, or has it become a tool at the service of ex Warsaw Pact countries to take down a Russia they still fear? Is Nato now a Europe and Asia wide organisation, or just North Atlantic......
 
Top Bottom