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Ukraine War Thread

anatta

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No NCO Corps - Officers make the decisions, and when significant numbers of Russian Officers KIA/WIA, new troops with little training arriving.
New long range artillery, more counter battery radars, more & deadly air defence, Kherson heating up
US has spent approx 8.2 B on lethal aid alone.
Time for other rich countries to help pay the bills.



why should any other rich country "help pay the bills".The USA pay the bills for Europe's wars - we lead on NATO
China's bellicose threats over Pelosi just touching down in Taiwan will end up USA paying for that as well .
that's all. just reading through
 

Juks

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No NCO Corps - Officers make the decisions, and when significant numbers of Russian Officers KIA/WIA, new troops with little training arriving.
New long range artillery, more counter battery radars, more & deadly air defence, Kherson heating up
US has spent approx 8.2 B on lethal aid alone.
Time for other rich countries to help pay the bills.


Please note that the EU countries are contributing in 2 ways, national contributions and contributions through the EU. Now the contributions through the EU are not military weapons but money to pay the soldiers salary, money for state salaries in general and medical and human aid to internal refugees. The Committed budgetary support from the EU is (according to Ukraine) 12,3 billion euro (US 8,5). Several EU countries (Germany among those) have also contributed on their own to this, beside the military support.


To this there is also the aid to the over 5 million refugees in EU. Different countries have different aid, but in Sweden, they get housing and living costs, education for children (general) and for adults (in Swedish). For certain groups such as teachers, they receive university education to be able to teach in Swedish schools. The same applies in, for example, Germany

So I would say that if you add up the EU and EU countries seperate contributions, you would come down to approximatly the same amount as the US.
 
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Tangmo

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I do confess, I have cheered when the Ukrainian army has killed big groups of Russians (or at least given a like to the post), In my defense I have to say it has given me a bad feeling which I have brushed of with the ends justify the means and that, if we disregard the conscripts from the war start, mostly the Russians are there by choice while the Ukrainians are there by necessity. Still, it is sad, young boys, mostly not war criminals (I have to believe), sometimes no more than children.

And in the end, it is al so unnecessary. Just one mans megalomania.


This 👆

Some of these kids were lied to about where they were going.
Some of these kids that were aware of where they were going were intentionally ill-equipped.
Some were sent just to be fodder (mostly the minority groups of Russia).

I prefer to cheer more when their equipment is destroyed. That makes things end quicker for both sides.

True, all of it. And sad it is indeed.

Yet when it's kill or be killed in an all out conventional war against a barbarian invader it's never been wise to stroll over to 'em to hand out chocolate bars. Or to say to 'em we understand their plight or something like we'll cover your retreat, just pick up your chocolate wrappers plse thx. We only hand out the chocolate to the bubbly and literal kids and only after we've seized and secured the place. And seizing the place could occur only after we shot enough of the invaders between the eyes. And blasted 'em to Kingdom Come by the truckloads. .

A best factor of the present turning of the worm by which Ukraine is gaining some initiative and momentum again is of course the long range US and NATO high tech artillery/missiles that destroy ammo dumps, rail trains, tracks, interchanges, command posts and so on.

We couldn't do this "clean" site only targeting sooner because UAF had to get secure area locations and positioning which means closer in while being out of Russian range, and because these very hapless Russian forces needed to be depleted to the maximum minimum and either stopped or driven back. Our guys have taken out a large number of Russian brass hats which is a sort of compensation for all the hapless Russian grunts we've had to kill or disable. We've terminated a lot of their most loyal and regarded BTG.

I'm not declaring victory just now and couldn't anyway cause to make the claim Putin would have to blow his brains out first. Or get 'em blown out for him. Yet it's a good indicator to see sympathy surfacing for the hapless Russians Putin threw into his man made maelstrom. It presents a lessening of an immediate war posture, ie, it's reflective rather than entirely kinetic. It's what we do when things are going better or well. Sit on the porch and say what a tragic shame it was. Such a waste.
 

Juks

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True, all of it. And sad it is indeed.

Yet when it's kill or be killed in an all out conventional war against a barbarian invader it's never been wise to stroll over to 'em to hand out chocolate bars. Or to say to 'em we understand their plight or something like we'll cover your retreat, just pick up your chocolate wrappers plse thx. We only hand out the chocolate to the bubbly and literal kids and only after we've seized and secured the place. And seizing the place could occur only after we shot enough of the invaders between the eyes. And blasted 'em to Kingdom Come by the truckloads. .

A best factor of the present turning of the worm by which Ukraine is gaining some initiative and momentum again is of course the long range US and NATO high tech artillery/missiles that destroy ammo dumps, rail trains, tracks, interchanges, command posts and so on.

We couldn't do this "clean" site only targeting sooner because UAF had to get secure area locations and positioning which means closer in while being out of Russian range, and because these very hapless Russian forces needed to be depleted to the maximum minimum and either stopped or driven back. Our guys have taken out a large number of Russian brass hats which is a sort of compensation for all the hapless Russian grunts we've had to kill or disable. We've terminated a lot of their most loyal and regarded BTG.

I'm not declaring victory just now and couldn't anyway cause to make the claim Putin would have to blow his brains out first. Or get 'em blown out for him. Yet it's a good indicator to see sympathy surfacing for the hapless Russians Putin threw into his man made maelstrom. It presents a lessening of an immediate war posture, ie, it's reflective rather than entirely kinetic. It's what we do when things are going better or well. Sit on the porch and say what a tragic shame it was. Such a waste.
Now I am predicting that after Kherson and the south, the Ukrainians will go for Crimea. After that the Russians will be very much boxed in in Donbass. Now, I would say Crimea in January, but I told another poster a month ago that I thought the Ukrainian would take back Kherson at the end of July so, I am in general a little optimistic.

Thing is that the advantage to the Ukrainian army is that they have the US onboard. It doesn't matter if Russia gets parts or help from China or other countries because they must produce, which takes time and can never measure up to the equipment the US already has ready to go, hence some of the Putin's advocates in this thread keep repeating that US should stop supporting the Ukraine with military equipments and let others (Europe) do it instead. There is no equivalence to the US military capacity in the world. They might get their wish true though after the election in November.

But if they don't, I'll say Crimea in January:)
 

Juin

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Yes that appears to be the case. Bakhmut then Kramatorsk and that wraps up the Donbas pretty much. Russia would then have the natural protective border of the Dnieper River. Will they stop there?



There WILL be a battle for the littoral. It is no more up to only Putin. And it may be out of Zelensky's hands as well. Zelensky has sold the Kherson counter offensive far too much, now he is trapped in it. He must fight it. He owes it to Nancy Pelosi, Boris the Menace Johnson, the Poles, the Baltic midgets to fight it. They won't understand it if he doesn't.

The question then is whether Zelensky's Kherson offensive is launched before the Donbass is over or after. It will be dangerous for Zelensky to wait for Russia to close accounts in the Donbass. Major battles over in the Donbass will release far too many Orc Batallions for deployment to the south.

That puts Zelensky in a quandary of sorts. If the Kherson counter offensive has to be more than just stuff for tweeter then he has to strengthen the front to the max. All available mobile forces have to be sent there. But that may mean weakening the Donbass garrisons by stripping them of Brigades to be sent south. A death wish given that the Orc Batallions are unlikely to be distracted.

A failed Kherson counter offensive may not be cost free at all. The Russians are unlikely to just sit around if Zelensky runs out of steam. If the Orc artillery breaks up Zelensky's "Pickett charge" they are likely to make their own push past Mikolaiv to the Moldovan border.

At play is not just Kherson. Odessa is as well
 

Juin

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Thing is that the advantage to the Ukrainian army is that they have the US onboard. It doesn't matter if Russia gets parts or help from China or other countries because they mus



To have the US on board is good. But is not a guarantee. Wars are funny things. The Afghan Army had the US on board but folded like a deck of cards. The Iraqi National Army didn't quite fold, but didn't cover itself in laurels either. Vietnam is a long time ago. Korea as well.
 

anatta

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To have the US on board is good. But is not a guarantee. Wars are funny things. The Afghan Army had the US on board but folded like a deck of cards. The Iraqi National Army didn't quite fold, but didn't cover itself in laurels either. Vietnam is a long time ago. Korea as well.
Afghan armed forces were riddled with corruption ( it's Afghanistan) The Iraqis fled from ISIS -tore off their uniforms
and left all kinds of heavy weapons (we have weaponized Afghan so much - the Taliban cant begin to use what we left behind)
Ukraine seems determined to fight to the death despite the deaths and pulverization

We do get a lot of bang for our bucks from the Uk forces if you want to look at the ledger that way
 

Juin

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Afghan armed forces were riddled with corruption ( it's Afghanistan) The Iraqis fled from ISIS -tore off their uniforms
and left all kinds of heavy weapons (we have weaponized Afghan so much - the Taliban cant begin to use what we left behind)
Ukraine seems determined to fight to the death despite the deaths and pulverization

We do get a lot of bang for our bucks from the Uk forces if you want to look at the ledger that way


Correct. The Ukrainian determination to fight, coupled with US weapons argues in favour of a favourable outcome for them. I will say my point was that the outcome of a war involves many other moving parts as well. There is also a tendency to overlook or dismiss the Russian determination. If Russia is seeing this as an existential struggle- and how can they not, given the public demonisation campaign in the west- then their determination may match that of the Ukrainians as the struggle gets bitter.

Even with US weapons it may turn out to be a bitter fight. And it is a bitter fight. The media and our fellow posters of the pro Kyiv bent fail to see or appreciate the whole picture. They only look at Ukrainian tweets- and I am a big tweeter fan myself- and come off with Russians are getting slaughtered. Mariupol is the big picture. That should put paid to any illusions from tweeter that the Orcs are not giving as good as they are taking. The toll is horrendous on both sides.

I am sure if the toll was light on the Ukrainian side won't they have long launched their Kherson offensive? The often announced counter offensives never take off precisely because of the pressures in the Donbass. The Ukrainian Command is caught between building up forces for counter offensives and sending reinforcements to besieged troops in the Donbass.
 

Rogue Valley

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Now I am predicting that after Kherson and the south, the Ukrainians will go for Crimea. After that the Russians will be very much boxed in in Donbass. Now, I would say Crimea in January, but I told another poster a month ago that I thought the Ukrainian would take back Kherson at the end of July so, I am in general a little optimistic.

Thing is that the advantage to the Ukrainian army is that they have the US onboard. It doesn't matter if Russia gets parts or help from China or other countries because they must produce, which takes time and can never measure up to the equipment the US already has ready to go, hence some of the Putin's advocates in this thread keep repeating that US should stop supporting the Ukraine with military equipments and let others (Europe) do it instead. There is no equivalence to the US military capacity in the world. They might get their wish true though after the election in November.

But if they don't, I'll say Crimea in January:)

Taking Kherson oblast would place Armyansk, the most northern town in Crimea well within HIMARS and M777 range. From Armyansk to Foros (the most southern town) is roughly 160 miles.

Liberating Crimea would be very difficult. Moscow has been turning the penninsula into a giant military base since 2014.
 

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Liberating Crimea would be very difficult. Moscow has been turning the penninsula into a giant military base since 2014.
I know, that is why that would be the gamechanger the Ukraine need to end the war. Right now, the fighting in Donbass is drawing the equipment away from the peninsula. The fight in the south will impoverish it more. There also still seem to be some resistance on the peninsula, if we measure on the attack at the Russian navy day.


Then there is the Russian fleet and its missile attacks. In order to track and to reach it with their own missiles the Ukrainians need the peninsula.

Besides it would be unexpected (well, not from me, but otherwise...) so it might be "easier" than it seems.

And the ukrainians have avoided to hit the bridge, which is rather strange if they wasn't considering on using it themselves.
 

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There WILL be a battle for the littoral. It is no more up to only Putin. And it may be out of Zelensky's hands as well. Zelensky has sold the Kherson counter offensive far too much, now he is trapped in it. He must fight it. He owes it to Nancy Pelosi, Boris the Menace Johnson, the Poles, the Baltic midgets to fight it. They won't understand it if he doesn't.

The question then is whether Zelensky's Kherson offensive is launched before the Donbass is over or after. It will be dangerous for Zelensky to wait for Russia to close accounts in the Donbass. Major battles over in the Donbass will release far too many Orc Batallions for deployment to the south.

That puts Zelensky in a quandary of sorts. If the Kherson counter offensive has to be more than just stuff for tweeter then he has to strengthen the front to the max. All available mobile forces have to be sent there. But that may mean weakening the Donbass garrisons by stripping them of Brigades to be sent south. A death wish given that the Orc Batallions are unlikely to be distracted.

A failed Kherson counter offensive may not be cost free at all. The Russians are unlikely to just sit around if Zelensky runs out of steam. If the Orc artillery breaks up Zelensky's "Pickett charge" they are likely to make their own push past Mikolaiv to the Moldovan border.

At play is not just Kherson. Odessa is as well
Kramatorsk is the big battle. Would Ukraine drain Kramatorsk to instead try to push into Kherson? Obviously most of this is theater to get more billions from the west. To lose Kramatorsk and not take Kherson would be a sign to the West. Would billions more be spent by the west at that point?
 

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Kramatorsk is the big battle. Would Ukraine drain Kramatorsk to instead try to push into Kherson? Obviously most of this is theater to get more billions from the west. To lose Kramatorsk and not take Kherson would be a sign to the West. Would billions more be spent by the west at that point?

WTF?

No, the goal is defeating the Russian Rape and Pillage Army.
 

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But they keep retreating. At some point the money faucet will be turned off.

You were whining because they weren't retreating.

They aren't fighting for the money. The goal is defeating the Russian Rape and Pillage Army.
 

Juin

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Kramatorsk is the big battle. Would Ukraine drain Kramatorsk to instead try to push into Kherson? Obviously most of this is theater to get more billions from the west. To lose Kramatorsk and not take Kherson would be a sign to the West. Would billions more be spent by the west at that point?



That's the kicker! To lose Kramatorsk and not take Kherson. That has to be Zelensky's worst nightmare, that a perception takes hold in the west that good money is being thrown after bad money, and by the buckets of billions.

To keep the billions coming Zelensky has to show a victory. And that is the easier part. He must also prevent a debacle. A debacle in the Donbass is the worst thing that can happen. It would be a shock in the capitals backing him. So Zelensky must prevent a debacle in the Donbass. It may also explain the no retreat strategy there.

It seems to me like Zelensky is better served devoting his offense in the Donbass. That is where the Orc Army has made it a priority. He does all he can to prevent a debacle, or actually pulls off some tactical victory.

But Zelensky prefers to split his Armies. Have one piece holding off the Orc Army in the Donbass while another piece goes after Kherson. That's a bad decision unless you enjoy overwhelming superiority over the Russians.

Gen Robert E Lee will not advice that. When Lee was in a similar fix at Richmond facing McClellan's juggernaut he did not split up his Armies to send a portion elsewhere. He brought Thomas Jackson down from the Shenandoah Valley to add to his mobile forces; with which forces he pulled off that end run around the Union right.
 

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A spokesperson for Moscow's defence ministry alleged the US was approving targets for American-made Himars artillery used by Kyiv's forces. There was no immediate comment on the allegation from US officials. Russia previously accused Washington of fighting a "proxy war" in Ukraine. "It is the Biden administration that is directly responsible for all rocket attacks approved by Kyiv on residential areas and civilian infrastructure facilities in settlements of Donbass and other regions that caused mass deaths of civilians," Mr Konashenkov said. In April, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said US President Joe Biden's decision to supply Ukraine with billions of dollars worth of arms meant "Nato, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy". "War means war," the 72-year-old warned.



Inside the Ukrainian city that said no to occupation

AA10e7Xg.img

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has designated Okhtyrka a 'Hero City of Ukraine,' an honorary title awarded only to one other northeastern city, Kharkiv.
 

Tangmo

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One thing we found about the Ukraine Army, it has a apparently a good NCO and junior officer corps. It senior officers are rather good. NATO trained.
The corruption of favourism of the Ukraine has not deeply penetrated the military. If, the Army would have already collapsed.
Since 2014 US armed forces trainers and advisors of the UAF have used the South Korean model to develop UAF as a highly effective fighting force. In SK their armed forces trained with US Forces Korea and were always and continue to be integrated with USFK, to include up and down the chain of command. SK NCO and officers have long been up to par fellows with their US models making each armed force a force a fraternal multiplier to the other.

While in Ukraine US does not have a standing armed force US trainers took over to train and educate the entire UAF focusing on NCO and the officer corps. US trainers were joined by trainers from UK and several other NATO countries. NATO too is trained to fight the US way given American armed forces lead in weapons, equipment, skilled troops land, sea, air, budgets, unified command authority and the successful WW2 experience of commanding a continental armed force of nations across the Rhine into Germany by traversing the Atlantic through North Africa, the Med, Italy and from the UK (plus equipping and supplying Russia via Lend-Lease).

A couple of months ago I read a course lecture presented at the US Army War College by an AF colonel faculty officer of national security and strategy who is also the college director of the Eisenhower Series of study that includes Ike's command decisions as Supreme Allied Commander Europe. The colonel discussed to his mostly Army field officer learners on track for higher ranks Russia and Ukraine have important similarities to the 1995-96 Third Taiwan Strait Crisis in which Potus Clinton sent two carrier strike groups to the Taiwan Strait to make China back off firing missiles into the Strait 24/7 for a week trying to scare Taiwan voters off the popular election of their president. As the (successful) not so closeted pro independence candidate Lee Teng-hui was given a Visa to visit his alma mater Cornell which sent Beijing bonkers, hence the continuous barrage of missiles into the Strait off Taiwan shores.

The colonel points out the result -- that Lee won a clear majority instead of the expected plurality -- showed what applies to Russia in Ukraine, ie, "As we teach and China discovered in this case, compellence is generally more difficult than deterrence." The colonel also advised his class that, "As we teach and China [and Russia] discovered, vital interests are worth fighting for." The lecture presented Feb. 17 a week before Putin's invasion began focuses on compellence and deterrence -- Putin being a failure at each. Indeed, Taiwan in the next presidential election in 2000 elected the known pro independence DPP guy president and reelected him in 2004. So there Beijing.

"Approximately 25 years later, Russia’s massive military “exercises” on Ukraine’s borders have created a new crisis with important similarities and differences to the Taiwan Straits crisis. Like China versus the United States regarding Taiwan, Russia has a more direct and intense security interest and cultural connection to the fate of Ukraine than does the United States and NATO. U.S. and NATO interests are more abstract and related to maintaining international norms of the current “liberal world order” and thus may seem less intense and more difficult to communicate. Another similarity is that Russia’s demands appear to attempt to compel action from the United States. Russia’s coercive threats against a less intense [vital] interest of the United States are unlikely to work, much like China failed to compel the United States to accede to its demands during the Taiwan Straits crisis. Russia’s overt demands are unrealistically high and not matched by a threat of sufficient direct cost to the United States or NATO."



So yeah, while in fact Putin is being hammered by US military weapons, ordinance, training of UAF and resilience, he's not really at war against the US or NATO izzhe, so he is hog tied. Nor will or can Putin go to war against US-NATO now or ever. After Ukraine especially, no, no way. This is the end of Putin whether he remains as leader or exits.
 
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Yakshi

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This month-old article was interesting in showing how powerful propaganda can be, even the laughably illogical, contradictory garbage that russia shits nowadays into the brains of its populace.

The scariest part was how a couple respondents seemed to grudgingly accept the idea of nuclear war as an alternative that the west might force russia to start.

Such victims of their own mass psychosis.

I like how at the end the most rabid anti-American in the story hoped to visit America, all without awareness of how witless she came across.
 

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Gen Robert E Lee will not advice that. When Lee was in a similar fix at Richmond facing McClellan's juggernaut he did not split up his Armies to send a portion elsewhere. He brought Thomas Jackson down from the Shenandoah Valley to add to his mobile forces; with which forces he pulled off that end run around the Union right.

What a pile of stinking horse shit. You talk, brag, and bloviate a lot, but you know very little about what you're talking about.

When Lee fought Hooker a year later near the same area at the Battle of Chancellorsville Lee divided his forces before and during the battle.

Gen. Lee would advise that splitting your forces depends on the circumstances.
 
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