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[W:#23,579]Ukraine War Thread

Putin will be happy for Ukraine to withdraw into fortified positions in the west. Europe will continue to buy Russia's petroleum products.


I seem to recall you saying Ukraine was winning the war and soon would push Russia back to Moscow.

Less and less.

Germany is already gearing up coal fired plants.
 
iu
 
Leaning on the Belarussians to supply ammunition for Russian forces is odd.
Using the Rosgvardiya to supply manpower, bringing in tanks from the 60th and scramling the eastern europe to find shellings and utilizing the Belarus military equipment. They are scramling.....
 
Leaning on the Belarussians to supply ammunition for Russian forces is odd.
They must be running low. Read that planners never get the ammo/fuel mix right.
NATO Intel does not have accurate numbers of RU ammo reserves - artillery/tank
I have seen photos of fields with hundreds of craters from RU artillery attacks
They are burning thru stocks.
Next thing is barrel replacements - tank/artillery
As the barrels wear accuracy is sacrificed (not sure on that)
Not sure if a badly worn barrel can have a shell explode inside the barrel?
I have seen multiple reports of RU air lift coming from Syria. Many ME countries purchased Russian kit

While they have made modest gains in the east. Russian losses had to be severe.
Possible that UAF has significantly impaired Russian ability to mount offensives.
In the past month or so, Russia has improved their ability to combine air/land assets

That said Russia appears to not have the ability to manage a large offensive
When they take Donbas, I think Russia will dig in
Hopefully UAF receives more HIMARS as they are deadly and highly accurate.
Taking RU artillery out of the mix is critical for any UAF offensive, which I think will happen first in the Kherson area

It is becoming clear that Russian assets are substantially depleted, from soldiers to kit

NATO has to up their game before public opinion on the costs affect support
Read that a fair number in Italy/France/Germany want this to end even if Ukraine loses territory
 
Using the Rosgvardiya to supply manpower, bringing in tanks from the 60th and scramling the eastern europe to find shellings and utilizing the Belarus military equipment. They are scramling.....
This all part of a long term plan with Russia and Belarus. Putin has drawn Lukachenko totally under his wing. Talks of nuclear weapons going to Belarus. Closer military ties. Belarus is practically Russia now. Putin has had plans of Belarusian soldiers serving in Russian guise for a long time now.
 
Bombing of Kyiv resumed today, as well as Cherkassy, which up to this point in the war had been relatively untouched. Cherkassy had in recent months become a hub for displaced Ukrainians from the east.

A Cherkassy acquaintance informed me that the bombing in town is true, and that one person has been killed and others wounded. However, she said that other details have not yet been revealed.

Edit to add: Here is a tweet from today about an alleged bomb strike near a bridge in Cherkassy.

 
This all part of a long term plan with Russia and Belarus. Putin has drawn Lukachenko totally under his wing. Talks of nuclear weapons going to Belarus. Closer military ties. Belarus is practically Russia now. Putin has had plans of Belarusian soldiers serving in Russian guise for a long time now.
Yeah sure. Russia is exhausting itself, remember they have a GDP that is less than 40% of that of Germany but double the population. They have 15 times the population of Sweden but only 3 times the GDP... Compared to the US it is 7,5% of that of the US… Beside that the corruption (most extensive in Europe) eats into the states gaining’s. Sanctions or not sanctions, they can't afford to build up what they are losing. If the war continues a year or so and they keep squandering their recourses the way they are at the moment, they will be as much a military superpower as Lithuania. There will also not be any Rosgvardiya left and the country will be free for the taking for their citiziens.
 
Using the Rosgvardiya to supply manpower, bringing in tanks from the 60th and scramling the eastern europe to find shellings and utilizing the Belarus military equipment. They are scramling.....



And exactly what is wrong with that?
 
And exactly what is wrong with that?
Nothing, it will make it easier for the Russian people to depose of Putin.
 
This all part of a long term plan with Russia and Belarus. Putin has drawn Lukachenko totally under his wing. Talks of nuclear weapons going to Belarus. Closer military ties. Belarus is practically Russia now. Putin has had plans of Belarusian soldiers serving in Russian guise for a long time now.



That sounds like a carbon copy of Nato blueprints for Ukraine, Georgia and Belarus. That is until Putin messed things up. Georgia is no more a Nato pickup. Belarus is also out of play. Ukraine is in play.
 
Nothing, it will make it easier for the Russian people to depose of Putin.



And where do you get it that the Russian people want to depose him?

And how is Boris Johnson doing? Everyone keeps talking about Putin getting evicted, how about uber hawk Boris Johnson?
 
Nothing, it will make it easier for the Russian people to depose of Putin.


So they can go back to the mud and late 90s?

Until those older than 40 die out I doubt Russians will be willing to overthrow the government and the chaos that will result
 
They must be running low. Read that planners never get the ammo/fuel mix right.
NATO Intel does not have accurate numbers of RU ammo reserves - artillery/tank
I have seen photos of fields with hundreds of craters from RU artillery attacks
They are burning thru stocks.
Next thing is barrel replacements - tank/artillery
As the barrels wear accuracy is sacrificed (not sure on that)
Not sure if a badly worn barrel can have a shell explode inside the barrel?
I have seen multiple reports of RU air lift coming from Syria. Many ME countries purchased Russian kit

While they have made modest gains in the east. Russian losses had to be severe.
Possible that UAF has significantly impaired Russian ability to mount offensives.
In the past month or so, Russia has improved their ability to combine air/land assets

That said Russia appears to not have the ability to manage a large offensive
When they take Donbas, I think Russia will dig in
Hopefully UAF receives more HIMARS as they are deadly and highly accurate.
Taking RU artillery out of the mix is critical for any UAF offensive, which I think will happen first in the Kherson area

It is becoming clear that Russian assets are substantially depleted, from soldiers to kit

NATO has to up their game before public opinion on the costs affect support
Read that a fair number in Italy/France/Germany want this to end even if Ukraine loses territory
If the barrels get worn out, accuracy goes to hell, the projectile wobbles in the air.
Range goes to hell, because propellant gases in the barrel can bypass the projectile.
Explosion of the projectile in the barrel is possible, getting wedged.


And they have a ammo shortage, why would they need to get it from their Belarus storages.

I think Russia fooked up big time. They thought the could just walz all over the Ukraine, a walz in the park.
They did not prepare for this to become a real hard core war.
I always liked General Powell's approach, the reluctant warrior, if you go to war, you always prepare for real war, not for a push over.
War is a very serious business, not a joke and you always have to be prepared that your enemy might throw you a curve ball.
That is where Russia failed, arrogance, stupidity, overestimating, bad intell?
Who knows.

Even the choice of name, Special Operation, shows the problems. A SO in military terms means small teams, going in fast and coming out even faster.

What you call something has a effect on the soldiers. If you call it war, the soldiers know it will be rough, bloody and they can prepare for it, its a mind game, too.
A SO means short, in and out, over done with it.

I think all of that will cause Russia to lose the war
 
The Russians are now taking Lysychansk. Ukrainian fighters are attempting to retreat but that path is under heavy fire. Many are dying in the retreat. It is truly horrendous Ukrainian military decision making.
 
From your article:

At the same time, a few dozen commandos from other NATO countries, including Britain, France, Canada and Lithuania, also have been working inside Ukraine. The United States withdrew its own 150 military instructors before the war began in February, but commandos from these allies either remained or have gone in and out of the country since then, training and advising Ukrainian troops and providing an on-the-ground conduit for weapons and other aid, three U.S. officials said. Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in February, the Army’s 10th Special Forces Group, which before the war had been training Ukrainian commandos at a base in the country’s west, quietly established a coalition planning cell in Germany to coordinate military assistance to Ukrainian commandos and other Ukrainian troops. The cell has now grown to 20 nations.

Thank you for posting this article. The West is transferring approximately 20 years of valuable military knowledge, acquired from the hard-fought wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, to Ukrainian military forces. Russia hasn't really done much during this time period. This is one of the many reasons why Russia is destined to lose this war.
 
I think all of that will cause Russia to lose the war
You are reading all this shortage stuff from whom? What actual signs do you see of these shortages? This stuff has been said for months yet Russia is out shelling Ukraine by a factor of 10.

The war is very heavily now weighing on Ukraine. It is fleeing the Donbas in a disorganized fashion.
 
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