Ukraine updated its defense institutions — and is defying expectations

[Rogue Valley]

Ukraine updated its defense institutions — and is defying expectations

3.29.22
Over the past weeks, the Ukrainian military has waged a surprisingly tough resistance against a much larger and more capable Russian army. While it’s too early for a full accounting, Ukraine’s performance appears to be exceeding expectations. But seven years ago, Ukraine’s military was unprepared and largely ineffective when Russia’s military seized Crimea. By 2022, Ukraine appears to have overcome at least some of the earlier challenges. Did U.S. security assistance — roughly $2 billion between 2014 and 2020 — make the Ukrainian military more effective? Our research points to one explanation for why U.S. security assistance may have had greater success in Ukraine. Ukraine seems to be a case where security assistance made a positive contribution — although Ukraine’s own efforts are probably most important. The United States sent security assistance to Ukraine between 2014 and 2020, as part of a broader Western effort to strengthen the Ukrainian military. Research suggests this type of assistance is often ineffective or counterproductive, however. Much larger programs in Iraq and Afghanistan failed to produce effective militaries, for example.

A crucial but overlooked factor enabling Ukraine’s military performance may be its defense institutions. In 2014, institutional problems contributed to Ukraine’s combat ineffectiveness — Ukraine’s armed forces could do little to stop the Russian seizure of Crimea. When the war began, only 6,000 of the 41,000 Ukrainian army personnel were available, and its battalions had rarely conducted live fire exercises. Later, in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, flaws in command and control reportedly led to delayed orders that contributed to the February 2015 defeat of Ukrainian forces at Debaltseve. Overhauling Ukraine’s procurement institutions has facilitated the recent surge of security assistance to Ukraine — and has likely enabled the military to draw on more locally produced equipment. U.S. assistance contributed to these defense updates because the necessary conditions were in place: Ukrainian leaders recognized the value of Western support for their own political success. Zelensky’s government saw the value of weakening the oligarchic interests that were working against them. Ukraine’s military performance in recent weeks reflects other factors, including combat experience gained in the 2014 conflict, broad public support and a committed population — not to mention Russian miscalculations.

See Below.....

 

[Rogue Valley]

I want to draw your attention to these two article sentences.....

In 2014, institutional problems contributed to Ukraine’s combat ineffectiveness — Ukraine’s armed forces could do little to stop the Russian seizure of Crimea. When the war began, only 6,000 of the 41,000 Ukrainian army personnel were available, and its battalions had rarely conducted live fire exercises.

Owing to corruption and a military riddled with Russian spies, Ukraine could only field ~6,000 active soldiers when in early 2014 the Russian GRU crashed the border in the east and with pro-Russia rebels began taking ciries and towns in Donbas. There were precious few troops to prevent the Russians from taking Kyiv if they wanted. Most of Ukraine's defenses were arrayed to stop an invadfing army from Europe, not one from Russia. What happened next probably saved Ukraine from being cut in half. Ukrainian oligarchs recognized that if the Russian advance wasn't checked, Russian oligarchs would be taking over their enterprises. So they funded volunter far-right/nationalist militias such as the Azov Battalion and Red Sektor... Ukrainians that actually had military experience and weren't afraid to fight. The oligarchs bought tons of weapons and whatever other supplies these militias needed. And it worked. The Kremlin advance was not only stopped, but towns and small cities were being liberated. But after Russian armor crashed the border to prevent the railroad junction town of Debaltseve from being liberated, the fighting stalled and the war became one of attrition. After the election of Petro Poroshenko in spring of 2014, Red Sektor left the battlefield and Azov was folded into a new National Guard police regiment, its leadership choosing to depart and form the National Corps political party.

This is where the Kremlin began manufacturing the propaganda that Nazis ran Ukraine. In both the 2014 and 2019 national elections however, far right political parties had dismal showings, not even meeting the 5% representational threshold. In 2019 a Jewish president was elected. But the Kremlin pressed on anyway, and this is the propaganda Putin pushes about "denazifying" Ukraine. We also have some Kremlin fanbois here on DP that act like Stepan Bandara (assassinated in 1959) is still alive and is somehow still relevant to modern Ukraine.

 

[Jkca1]

Whose expectations? I don't recall Russia claiming the war would be over by 3-29. If they did I would like to see the quote and source.

 

[joluoto]

Whose expectations? I don't recall Russia claiming the war would be over by 3-29. If they did I would like to see the quote and source.

Ukraine crisis: Russian news agency deletes victory editorial​

That's easy, they said so themselves. They had an article pre published where they celebrated their victory and gloated about how Ukraine now theirs. And then they forgot to remove it, so it went up for a short while before they took it down.

Here's the article:

Наступление России и нового мира​

thanks to the wayback machine.
And here is an English translation:

The new world order​

 

[joluoto]

I want to draw your attention to these two article sentences.....



Owing to corruption and a military riddled with Russian spies, Ukraine could only field ~6,000 active soldiers when in early 2014 the Russian GRU crashed the border in the east and with pro-Russia rebels began taking ciries and towns in Donbas. There were precious few troops to prevent the Russians from taking Kyiv if they wanted. Most of Ukraine's defenses were arrayed to stop an invadfing army from Europe, not one from Russia. What happened next probably saved Ukraine from being cut in half. Ukrainian oligarchs recognized that if the Russian advance wasn't checked, Russian oligarchs would be taking over their enterprises. So they funded volunter far-right/nationalist militias such as the Azov Battalion and Red Sektor... Ukrainians that actually had military experience and weren't afraid to fight. The oligarchs bought tons of weapons and whatever other supplies these militias needed. And it worked. The Kremlin advance was not only stopped, but towns and small cities were being liberated. But after Russian armor crashed the border to prevent the railroad junction town of Debaltseve from being liberated, the fighting stalled and the war became one of attrition. After the election of Petro Poroshenko in spring of 2014, Red Sektor left the battlefield and Azov was folded into a new National Guard police regiment, its leadership choosing to depart and form the National Corps political party.

This is where the Kremlin began manufacturing the propaganda that Nazis ran Ukraine. In both the 2014 and 2019 national elections however, far right political parties had dismal showings, not even meeting the 5% representational threshold. In 2019 a Jewish president was elected. But the Kremlin pressed on anyway, and this is the propaganda Putin pushes about "denazifying" Ukraine. We also have some Kremlin fanbois here on DP that act like Stepan Bandara (assassinated in 1959) is still alive and is somehow still relevant to modern Ukraine.

There was some Ukrainian politician in 2014 that basically said: "Ukraine ha no army", which was correct in 2014. Ukraine's army was a paper tiger mostly filled with people lifting salaries for nothing. That's why Russia had it relatively easy in 2014, Russia's mistake was thinking this was still the case.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Whose expectations?

The expectations of most military analyist's around the world.

The same happened with the 1967 Israeli-Arab War and the Russia-Afghanistan War.

Time and again the Russian military has shown that it is several notches below NATO.