Ukraine isn't winning, and Putin isn't losing...

[maxparrish]

A week or more ago Western "experts" were assuring us that Russian forces would soon be spent, and unable to carry on. While still early, I don't see it affecting their munitions. In fact, I see hopes for Ukraine ebbing away under the massive city killing firepower of Russian forces. Here are the reasons my cautious optimism has faded.

1) Russian forces will take Mariupol shortly... a city essentially like Aleppo, wiped off the map by Russia.

2) Russians may not be advancing elsewhere, and are in fact digging in around Kiev, but they are still reducing historic cities to rubble. There is no means available to Ukraine to stop that. Planes were not provided, switchblade supply appears far short of promises, stingers from the west may be getting low, and S-300 type systems are not available in quantity...and are perhaps weeks away. There is no method of hitting those missile launchers and artillery.

3) Putin is stripping forces elsewhere to keep the offensive going...dispatching the forces protecting Moscow to the front. Syria will supply new fighters of an unknown number, as have Chechnya.

4) The only apparent route to victory for Ukraine is to field a qualitatively superior army, one with far better weapons. At this point, it looks like it won't and can't happen. IF Nato had properly armed and trained Ukraine on western weapons things might have been different... but they were not.

5) Nato is unwilling to send in 'peacekeepers' in the western part of Ukraine, nor provide planes, nor provide a no-fly zone.

6) Unless Ukrainians are willing to see all their cities reduced to ash and have nothing left, other than arms and food from NATO...well, ... how can you win then?

 

[iguanaman]

A week or more ago Western "experts" were assuring us that Russian forces would soon be spent, and unable to carry on. While still early, I don't see it affecting their munitions. In fact, I see hopes for Ukraine ebbing away under the massive city killing firepower of Russian forces. Here are the reasons my cautious optimism has faded.

1) Russian forces will take Mariupol shortly... a city essentially like Aleppo, wiped off the map by Russia.

2) Russians may not be advancing elsewhere, and are in fact digging in around Kiev, but they are still reducing historic cities to rubble. There is no means available to Ukraine to stop that. Planes were not provided, switchblade supply appears far short of promises, stingers from the west may be getting low, and S-300 type systems are not available in quantity...and are perhaps weeks away. There is no method of hitting those missile launchers and artillery.

3) Putin is stripping forces elsewhere to keep the offensive going...dispatching the forces protecting Moscow to the front. Syria will supply new fighters of an unknown number, as have Chechnya.

4) The only apparent route to victory for Ukraine is to field a qualitatively superior army, one with far better weapons. At this point, it looks like it won't and can't happen. IF Nato had properly armed and trained Ukraine on western weapons things might have been different... but they were not.

5) Nato is unwilling to send in 'peacekeepers' in the western part of Ukraine, nor provide planes, nor provide a no-fly zone.

6) Unless Ukrainians are willing to see all their cities reduced to ash and have nothing left, other than arms and food from NATO...well, ... how can you win then?

There is no doubt that if Putin wants to take possession of a country of rubble where fighters lurk in every pile he will "win" the battle but lose the war in the long run. Ukraine will never be an asset to him only a liability. If you call that winning you are wrong. Did we win in Iraq or Afghanistan?

 

[maxparrish]

There is no doubt that if Putin wants to take possession of a country of rubble where fighters lurk in every pile he will "win" the battle but lose the war in the long run. Ukraine will never be an asset to him only a liability. If you call that winning you are wrong. Did we win in Iraq or Afghanistan?

Well, that is a good point. On the other hand, it presumes that Ukraine is willing to go that far rather than surrender. If so, it is likely they will lose another chunk of territory, be demilitarized and helpless.

 

[TheParser]

The defeat and the end of Ukraine as an independent nation will finally convince other countries that border Russia to join NATO.

Then if Russia tries to rape one of them, NATO will have no choice but to defend that nation.

The result would probably be World War III. (Or as some wags put it, European Civil War 3.)

 

[CaughtInThe]

this will be a 10 year war.

 

[noonereal]

A week or more ago Western "experts" were assuring us that Russian forces would soon be spent, and unable to carry on. While still early, I don't see it affecting their munitions. In fact, I see hopes for Ukraine ebbing away under the massive city killing firepower of Russian forces. Here are the reasons my cautious optimism has faded.

1) Russian forces will take Mariupol shortly... a city essentially like Aleppo, wiped off the map by Russia.

2) Russians may not be advancing elsewhere, and are in fact digging in around Kiev, but they are still reducing historic cities to rubble. There is no means available to Ukraine to stop that. Planes were not provided, switchblade supply appears far short of promises, stingers from the west may be getting low, and S-300 type systems are not available in quantity...and are perhaps weeks away. There is no method of hitting those missile launchers and artillery.

3) Putin is stripping forces elsewhere to keep the offensive going...dispatching the forces protecting Moscow to the front. Syria will supply new fighters of an unknown number, as have Chechnya.

4) The only apparent route to victory for Ukraine is to field a qualitatively superior army, one with far better weapons. At this point, it looks like it won't and can't happen. IF Nato had properly armed and trained Ukraine on western weapons things might have been different... but they were not.

5) Nato is unwilling to send in 'peacekeepers' in the western part of Ukraine, nor provide planes, nor provide a no-fly zone.

6) Unless Ukrainians are willing to see all their cities reduced to ash and have nothing left, other than arms and food from NATO...well, ... how can you win then?

This thread is birth by a false premise, a logical fallacy. No one ever said Ukraine was winning.
But, if it makes you happy to dismantle an argument no one has ever made, enjoy!

 

[noonereal]

The defeat and the end of Ukraine as an independent nation will finally convince other countries that border Russia to join NATO.

Then if Russia tries to rape one of them, NATO will have no choice but to defend that nation.

The result would probably be World War III. (Or as some wags put it, European Civil War 3.)

This is ww3. The question is, how much will the killing fields spread.

 

[maxparrish]

This thread is birth by a false premise, a logical fallacy. No one ever said Ukraine was winning.
But, if it makes you happy to dismantle an argument no one has ever made, enjoy!

Huh?

The statement is factually correct on the state of the war. It wasn't in response to anyone, so if that makes you unhappy...so be it.

 

[Roadvirus]

A week or more ago Western "experts" were assuring us that Russian forces would soon be spent, and unable to carry on. While still early, I don't see it affecting their munitions. In fact, I see hopes for Ukraine ebbing away under the massive city killing firepower of Russian forces. Here are the reasons my cautious optimism has faded.

1) Russian forces will take Mariupol shortly... a city essentially like Aleppo, wiped off the map by Russia.

2) Russians may not be advancing elsewhere, and are in fact digging in around Kiev, but they are still reducing historic cities to rubble. There is no means available to Ukraine to stop that. Planes were not provided, switchblade supply appears far short of promises, stingers from the west may be getting low, and S-300 type systems are not available in quantity...and are perhaps weeks away. There is no method of hitting those missile launchers and artillery.

3) Putin is stripping forces elsewhere to keep the offensive going...dispatching the forces protecting Moscow to the front. Syria will supply new fighters of an unknown number, as have Chechnya.

4) The only apparent route to victory for Ukraine is to field a qualitatively superior army, one with far better weapons. At this point, it looks like it won't and can't happen. IF Nato had properly armed and trained Ukraine on western weapons things might have been different... but they were not.

5) Nato is unwilling to send in 'peacekeepers' in the western part of Ukraine, nor provide planes, nor provide a no-fly zone.

6) Unless Ukrainians are willing to see all their cities reduced to ash and have nothing left, other than arms and food from NATO...well, ... how can you win then?

WHich is why #5 needs to change. NATO needs to send in troops and establish a No Fly Zone. That'll end this crap in no time.

 

[Jredbaron96]

WHich is why #5 needs to change. NATO needs to send in troops and establish a No Fly Zone. That'll end this crap in no time.

It will end everything in no time.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

I mean Ukraine is winning so bad they’ve now banned opposition political parties under martial law.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

WHich is why #5 needs to change. NATO needs to send in troops and establish a No Fly Zone. That'll end this crap in no time.

Why should we send in troops to protect an actual Nazi sympathetic non democratic regime like in Kiev?

Besides Europe doesn’t want a no-fly zone, despite the raving lunacy of English language media, no countries on the continent except a handful of eastern NATO states actually want to participate.

It’s easy for Americans and Britons who have oceans seperatinf them from consequences to proclaim they want war, Germany and France do not.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

The defeat and the end of Ukraine as an independent nation will finally convince other countries that border Russia to join NATO.

Only Finland and Sweden would even be considered in such cases.

Then if Russia tries to rape one of them, NATO will have no choice but to defend that nation.

Sir, please don’t use this vulgar language, it’s undignified

The result would probably be World War III. (Or as some wags put it, European Civil War 3.)

No it wouldn’t, I will predict right now if the Baltic’s get invaded we will do zero about it we’re not already doing

 

[EMNofSeattle]

A week or more ago Western "experts" were assuring us that Russian forces would soon be spent, and unable to carry on. While still early, I don't see it affecting their munitions. In fact, I see hopes for Ukraine ebbing away under the massive city killing firepower of Russian forces. Here are the reasons my cautious optimism has faded.

1) Russian forces will take Mariupol shortly... a city essentially like Aleppo, wiped off the map by Russia.

2) Russians may not be advancing elsewhere, and are in fact digging in around Kiev, but they are still reducing historic cities to rubble. There is no means available to Ukraine to stop that. Planes were not provided, switchblade supply appears far short of promises, stingers from the west may be getting low, and S-300 type systems are not available in quantity...and are perhaps weeks away. There is no method of hitting those missile launchers and artillery.

3) Putin is stripping forces elsewhere to keep the offensive going...dispatching the forces protecting Moscow to the front. Syria will supply new fighters of an unknown number, as have Chechnya.

4) The only apparent route to victory for Ukraine is to field a qualitatively superior army, one with far better weapons. At this point, it looks like it won't and can't happen. IF Nato had properly armed and trained Ukraine on western weapons things might have been different... but they were not.

5) Nato is unwilling to send in 'peacekeepers' in the western part of Ukraine, nor provide planes, nor provide a no-fly zone.

6) Unless Ukrainians are willing to see all their cities reduced to ash and have nothing left, other than arms and food from NATO...well, ... how can you win then?

I think the Azov and SBU will be willing to kill every ukranian civilian there is to avoid the much deserved war crimes trials that they will face if Russia gets their hands on them, 8 years of artillery fire against the Donbas killing civilians is why DNR forces have been so effective in the field. They will make the Azov pay.

 

[Hamish Howl]

6) Unless Ukrainians are willing to see all their cities reduced to ash and have nothing left, other than arms and food from NATO...well, ... how can you win then?

The way Ukrainians have always won.

By fighting long past what outside observers would consider a rational amount of time.

Gonna be food shortages all over the place next winter.

 

[Hamish Howl]

WHich is why #5 needs to change. NATO needs to send in troops and establish a No Fly Zone. That'll end this crap in no time.

That would certainly end the conflict.

In about 35 minutes.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

The way Ukrainians have always won.

By fighting long past what outside observers would consider a rational amount of time.

Gonna be food shortages all over the place next winter.

WRong, there was no such thing as a country called Ukraine until 1991. This is their first actual war. So there is no way that they have always won.

 

[maxparrish]

The way Ukrainians have always won.

By fighting long past what outside observers would consider a rational amount of time.

Gonna be food shortages all over the place next winter.

Well, some of my despondency has retreated since my op. After hearing a former advisor to Zelensky, his opinion is that while Ukraine is willing to accept neutrality it will never agree to recognize Russia's territorial and separatist claims. And Ukrainians fully reject any agreement that depends on trusting Putin, making the whole idea of demilitarization impossible. He has also said that Ukrainians attitude towards Russia has hardened, and their willingness to compromise or trust Russians is far LESS than it was before the war.

The ground forces of Ukraine have shown their remarkable ability to check Russian ground forces. Ukrainians seem willing to fight to utter destruction. If sanctions serious harm the Russian economy and Ukrainians survive the air bombardment long enough, the damage to Russian forces and its economy may be enough to stop this extreme aggression.

There isn't any doubt that Ukrainians have a long history of never giving up and fighting for independence. The old story of WWII goes that Ukrainian partisan were just as willing to kill Russian partisans as in killing Germans...perhaps more so.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

Well, some of my despondency has retreated since my op. After hearing a former advisor to Zelensky, his opinion is that while Ukraine is willing to accept neutrality it will never agree to recognize Russia's territorial and separatist claims. And Ukrainians fully reject any agreement that depends on trusting Putin, making the whole idea of demilitarization impossible. He has also said that Ukrainians attitude towards Russia have harden, and their willingness to compromise is LESS than it was before the war.

Its very telling you’re happy that Zelensky is going to keep subjecting his people to hardship in an un winnable war because he wants to oppress the Russians in the Donbas and reclaim Crimea, which he will never do.

The ground forces of Ukraine have shown their remarkable ability to check Russian ground forces.

No, they really haven’t, Mariupol will soon fall, the eastern army is surrounded on three sides and the noose is tightening and Ukraine just wasted most of their reserves on a counter attack at Kherson that was repulsed with heavy losses.

Ukrainians seem willing to fight to utter destruction.

Maybe, but it’s foolish and only a waste of lives

If sanctions serious harm the Russian economy and Ukrainians survive the air bombardment long enough, the damage to Russian forces and its economy may be enough to stop this extreme aggression.

It wasn’t extreme aggression, it was a justifiable response to constant ukranian provocation. Ukraine has repeatedly refused to abide by the Minsk accords and had continued attacking Donestsk civilians before Russia moved in.

There isn't any doubt that Ukrainians have a long history of never giving up and fighting for independence.

No, that’s historical revision.

The old story of WWII goes that Ukrainian partisan were just as willing to kill Russian partisans as in killing Germans...perhaps more so.

No, because the Ukrainians who fought against the Russians were ones in the far west previously connected to the Germanic Austria Hungary who fought with the Nazis. There was no pure ukranian movement who fought both, that is pure fantasy

 

[Tigerace117]

WHich is why #5 needs to change. NATO needs to send in troops and establish a No Fly Zone. That'll end this crap in no time.

Yep, Ukraine will be left such a radioactive cinder that there won’t be anything worth left fighting over with that plan. Brilliant! 🙄

 

[maxparrish]

Its very telling you’re happy that Zelensky is going to keep subjecting his people to hardship in an un winnable war because he wants to oppress the Russians in the Donbas and reclaim Crimea, which he will never do.

No, they really haven’t, Mariupol will soon fall, the eastern army is surrounded on three sides and the noose is tightening and Ukraine just wasted most of their reserves on a counter attack at Kherson that was repulsed with heavy losses.

Maybe, but it’s foolish and only a waste of lives

It wasn’t extreme aggression, it was a justifiable response to constant ukranian provocation. Ukraine has repeatedly refused to abide by the Minsk accords and had continued attacking Donestsk civilians before Russia moved in.

No, that’s historical revision.

No, because the Ukrainians who fought against the Russians were ones in the far west previously connected to the Germanic Austria Hungary who fought with the Nazis. There was no pure Ukrainian movement who fought both, that is pure fantasy

Actually, what is "telling" from your rant is the rabid foaming hatred of the Ukrainian people that is oozing from my laptop monitor. As people from the planet earth know, save for paid Russian shills and the occasional Western idiot, it is Putin who has subjected the Ukrainian people to Russian savagery. It is the President and commander in Chief of Russia that has ordered the reduction of Ukraine to rubble...no one else. But you knew that.

And of course it was extreme aggression. This wasn't a mere occupation of the area under separatist control, it was an invasion of the entire country under the pretext, which I guess you have zero knowledge of, that Ukraine is ruled by neo-Nazis, biological and nuclear war plotters, and folks who have the hubris of wanting to be left alone with their country intact - go figure.

As for the old chestnut, said in humor, how and why Ukrainian partisans felt it right to kill Russians might have something to do with the history of Stalin's murder of 3 to 6 million in Holodomor and a history of Russian imperialism, ya think?

I'm not sure why you feel compelled to defend the naked aggressor, the bully on the block, or why you hate people who speak Ukrainian. But its obvious you do, almost pathologically so.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

Actually, what is "telling" from your rant is the rabid foaming hatred of the Ukrainian people that is oozing from my laptop monitor.

Ad hominem attack with no argument

As people from the planet earth know, save for paid Russian shills and the occasional Western idiot, it is Putin who has subjected the Ukrainian people to Russian savagery.

There has been no real examples of savagery, apart from what’s normal in a state conflict

It is the President and commander in Chief of Russia that has ordered the reduction of Ukraine to rubble...no one else. But you knew that.

Ukraine has not been reduced “to rubble”

And of course it was extreme aggression. This wasn't a mere occupation of the area under separatist control,

And I doubt you would’ve approved of that either.

Because Ukraine is being pushed by the west they would never agree to diplomatically settle Donbas and Crimea, that’s why a total invasion is necessary

it was an invasion of the entire country under the pretext, which I guess you have zero knowledge of, that Ukraine is ruled by neo-Nazis,

Well the prime minister Ukraine literally went to a neo Nazi music rally where the lead act sung a song called “six million lies” you can’t get away with that. But that was not the sole reason

biological and nuclear war plotters,

There’s a lot of sketchy stuff with biolabs In Ukraine, and the Ukranian foreign minister made comments about wanting nuclear rearmament.

and folks who have the hubris of wanting to be left alone with their country intact - go figure.

Crimea was only part of Ukraine because of a mistake of administration during the Cold War. Given how Russians were treated in other Ukranian cities the desire of Russians in Crimea to want reunification is very understandable. The Donbas were subjected to war crimes by Ukranian forces for years

As for the old chestnut, said in humor, how and why Ukrainian partisans felt it right to kill Russians might have something to do with the history of Stalin's murder of 3 to 6 million in Holodomor and a history of Russian imperialism, ya think?

No, I do not think. I think that western Ukranians who were never actually part of the Russian empire joined with the Germans because they were previously part of Austria and had ethnic hatred of Russians.

I'm not sure why you feel compelled to defend the naked aggressor, the bully on the block, or why you hate people who speak Ukrainian. But its obvious you do, almost pathologically so.

I don’t hate people who speak ukranian, I merely don’t hold them on a pedestal for virtue signaling.

 

[Rogue Valley]

↑ Folks, THAT is what a Kremlin agent looks like up close.