I don't believe the EU will do much of anything, with the exception of the eastern european countries formerly part of the Soviet block.
I think the EU will do a great deal economically. There are significant Russian minorities in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldovia, Kazakhstan etc, as well as a very significant number of russified Belarusans.
Though it is doubtful that Putin intends to strong arm these nations, the EU might think it better to keep the Ossetia, then Abkazia, then Crimea, then... ? pattern from going any further- especially if this can be done with out military force against a Russian economy with some inherent weaknesses.
Also, a weak economic response on Crimea might embolden Putin to press for eastern Ukraine, or a full union treaty with Ukraine. This could start a major war and have more economic losses for the EU than sanctions.
We'll see. If the EU does, I think it will be longer term. Might be a mild winter there, but it's still winter.
Putin would strong arm those nations if he could. He can't. If the market for Russian energy shrinks a bit, so shrinks Russian power.
I agree that an economic response is the most effective, but it must be done in concert, and it must have an accompanying increase in military defense posture in order to be credible. Putin no doubt has his eyes on the whole of Ukraine, when and if the opportunity arises. Russia's military conducted games to the north of Ukraine as well as the publicized activities of their forces in the Crimean region. Ukraine forces already hopeless outmatched on their east would also have to confront Russian military to their north all the way to the Polish border. In short, had Putin dared to risk it, all of Ukraine was there for Russia's taking. That was a demonstration offered for the benefit of Ukrainian leadership in Kiev.
That is also going to take time. Since neither the US, nor NATO is committed to sending soldiers, the credible deterance must come from Ukraine, Lithuania, Estonia etc. .I agree that an economic response is the most effective, but it must be done in concert, and it must have an accompanying increase in military defense posture in order to be credible.
Good point.Now Putin is claiming that the unmarked militia in Crimea are simply local peace keepers. This is pretty much what I was predicting Putin's play to be all along. It's a win win for him. If the world simply lets him annex Crimea under this pretense then he gets Crimea. If Ukrainian forces try and push the occupation back he can claim that the new Ukrainian government is oppressing peaceful Ukrainian citizens and use that as the springboard into larger military action.
I disagree. The Russians could have cut Ukraine off weeks ago, but they did not. My guess is that they need every gas sale to be made on time to keep their own economy floating. They are not in the same position as the arab nations were when they did their large scale embargo.Also, economic sanctions won't work so well in this situation since half of Europe runs off of Russian oil and gas that runs through pipelines in the Ukraine. Any sanctions of Russian exports and imports would only begin to strangle Europe.
Now Putin is claiming that the unmarked militia in Crimea are simply local peace keepers. This is pretty much what I was predicting Putin's play to be all along. It's a win win for him. If the world simply lets him annex Crimea under this pretense then he gets Crimea. If Ukrainian forces try and push the occupation back he can claim that the new Ukrainian government is oppressing peaceful Ukrainian citizens and use that as the springboard into larger military action.
Russia previously used other means, such as economic warfare, to keep Ukraine in line. Why would it abandon less risky tactics for military ocupation?
Sounds like the seized Ukrainian forces had better behave themselves then, and all will end well.
I don't think he will do that unless the Ukrainian government starts attacking his forces. He is in Crimea at their request. I think that's where his interests ends, to maintain good relations with that region. Maybe his end game is to absorb them, but... who knows...Seems increasingly clear that were it not for the Sochi Olympics Russian tanks would have been in Kiev weeks ago.
I don't think he will do that unless the Ukrainian government starts attacking his forces. He is in Crimea at their request. I think that's where his interests ends, to maintain good relations with that region. Maybe his end game is to absorb them, but... who knows...
Putin's a master at strategy, and Kerry, Obama, etc. are showing themselves to be the fools we all knew they were.
That is also going to take time. Since neither the US, nor NATO is committed to sending soldiers, the credible deterance must come from Ukraine, Lithuania, Estonia etc. .
Western weapons manufacturers have priced themselves out of the market. The Baltic nations are too small to be able to afford significant, or even moderate amounts of pricey western eqipment. Ukraine, once they get their economy fixed, probably could afford a significant amount, but that is years away.
Ironically, the weapons that have the best value (cost to performance), and when in the hands of well trained soldiers, could be a credible deterrance against Russian strong arming, are all made in Russia.
I don't think he will do that unless the Ukrainian government starts attacking his forces. He is in Crimea at their request. I think that's where his interests ends, to maintain good relations with that region. Maybe his end game is to absorb them, but... who knows...
Putin's a master at strategy, and Kerry, Obama, etc. are showing themselves to be the fools we all knew they were.
Don't rescue them! Ukraine is already a waste land and most of their leaders are corrupt and useless cowards. The Russians haven't fired a single shot yet already half of Ukrainian navy and 30% air force staff have defected either to Russia or to the newly independent Crimea. The U.S. and the Western leaders are on the wrong side of history again.
How many times do we have to say "I told you so"? But this is what you get when it is amateur hour in the White House. You put in an inexperienced community organizer as the leader of the free world, well the free world will shrink. It was bad enough when he exploded our debt, but now with Russia and China on the move, he is continuing to gut our military. These moves by Putin and others go all the way back to the apology tour and the weakness of our American president. We can't fix this by sending our goof ball SOS to Kiev. We need to plan our strategy for years out into the future, and we need people capable of doing that. Sorry, but the "reset button" is not quite up to snuff.
Great, another comparison to Hitler, Brzezinski has had one for Russia forever, and he's not speaking for Jimmy Carter now.
Why shouldn't there be a comparison to Hitler? Are we not supposed to learn from history, and Russian's history as well?
Because Putin moving to secure his assets on the peninsula, is not paramount to imperialism, and the comparisons are foolish, and unnecessary.
His 'assets' were part of the Ukraine. There are other ways of solving these problems rather than an invasion.
The important thing is what he does next.
And of course it is imperialism. Thats the history of the Russian empire.
Hmm... I'm wondering how much the Snowden information influenced Putin's move.
The Black Sea fleet and the rest of his belongings in his rented port belong to the Ukraine? This was not a US style invasion, and you know that its not, and your claims of imperialism and comparisons to Hitler are insane.
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