UK economy plunges to 7 year low (1 Viewer)

[Infinite Chaos]

Britain's decision to leave the EU has led to a "dramatic deterioration" in economic activity, not seen since the aftermath of the financial crisis.Data from Markit's Purchasing Manager's Index, or PMI, shows a fall to 47.7 in July, the lowest level since April in 2009. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Both manufacturing and service sectors saw a decline in output and orders.
However, exports picked up, driven by the weakening of the pound. Link.

Important to note that recession was widely predicted after Brexit result but that a recovery would also come along soon after.

Trouble is, there's no guarantee yet and Theresa May has been told by Hollande that there will be no cherrypicking and no special deal. Even the Luxembourg minister said this today despite saying Luxembourg would wish to continue business with the UK and asks for a "smart divorce."

Question is, what form of Brexit should we chase and why? One commentator in the Telegraph suggests a Singapore model although this would also entail huge costs by "wiping out great tracts of manufacturing and agricultural industry before the new" industries got going.

Thoughts?

 

[PeteEU]

Well it is bigger than I expected. I had expected a downturn in the UK economy regardless of Brexit or not, since most of the Conservative policies are smoke and mirrors and dont really improve anything.

 

[joG]

Important to note that recession was widely predicted after Brexit result but that a recovery would also come along soon after.

Trouble is, there's no guarantee yet and Theresa May has been told by Hollande that there will be no cherrypicking and no special deal. Even the Luxembourg minister said this today despite saying Luxembourg would wish to continue business with the UK and asks for a "smart divorce."

Question is, what form of Brexit should we chase and why? One commentator in the Telegraph suggests a Singapore model although this would also entail huge costs by "wiping out great tracts of manufacturing and agricultural industry before the new" industries got going.

Thoughts?

We have noticed a reduction in demand for houses here in Spain out of the UK and surprisingly an increase in the number of houses being sold by British owners. It should be in the German export numbers next month and the month after, if the index is down in the UK.
But there is no reason to activate article 50 for some time. Exports to third countries will pick up and no bank is going to up and leave until they know that the UK will really leave. That would be too costly and the personnel is not available in any one city around the continent. I thought it silly not to maintain the presidency in 2017, as the optimal strategy is sitting it out and being a rude reminder to the populations of the losses they have encountered by the EU and Euro. The fact that the EU has to change in a serious way is evident, if other countries do not want to be faced by new popular forces gaining traction across the continent and reshuffling domestic power. It is going to have to come and everyone knows that. So it would be crazy for the UK to exit before this has happened. Whether they then stay in or leave the British cannot afford to let the power shift towards the Eu lobby and eurocrats during this process.

 

[William Rea]

We have noticed a reduction in demand for houses here in Spain out of the UK and surprisingly an increase in the number of houses being sold by British owners. It should be in the German export numbers next month and the month after, if the index is down in the UK.
But there is no reason to activate article 50 for some time. Exports to third countries will pick up and no bank is going to up and leave until they know that the UK will really leave. That would be too costly and the personnel is not available in any one city around the continent. I thought it silly not to maintain the presidency in 2017, as the optimal strategy is sitting it out and being a rude reminder to the populations of the losses they have encountered by the EU and Euro. The fact that the EU has to change in a serious way is evident, if other countries do not want to be faced by new popular forces gaining traction across the continent and reshuffling domestic power. It is going to have to come and everyone knows that. So it would be crazy for the UK to exit before this has happened. Whether they then stay in or leave the British cannot afford to let the power shift towards the Eu lobby and eurocrats during this process.

The Conservatives should be so lucky; If they don't push the button the party will split, it's as simple as that and it will be party and power before country just as it was for the referendum.

I voted remain and, I say push the ****ing button NOW or don't do it at all and, where have all these conviction politics Tories disappeared to? If they really believed it, why aren't they pushing it?

Apologies to the thread, I had to get that out.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

~ I say push the ****ing button NOW or don't do it at all and, where have all these conviction politics Tories disappeared to? If they really believed it, why aren't they pushing it?

I don't think many really felt they would win. The only person I would have believed really wanted Brexit was David Davis and he didn't campaign much. I also agree that not pushing the article 50 button will split the conservatives unless someone stands up with real conviction and a thought out plan for going forward.

I voted Remain and I think it is the worst decision we have ever made but now we made it, we need to make the case for making it work and the sooner the better.

~ Apologies to the thread, I had to get that out.

Not a problem Will.

~ surprisingly an increase in the number of houses being sold by British owners ~

I think a lot of second home owners wanted Brexit and suddenly realised they are going to lose out. It's also a time where the falling pound means they can get more money for their euro sales.

 

[Higgins86]

The Conservatives should be so lucky; If they don't push the button the party will split, it's as simple as that and it will be party and power before country just as it was for the referendum.

I voted remain and, I say push the ****ing button NOW or don't do it at all and, where have all these conviction politics Tories disappeared to? If they really believed it, why aren't they pushing it?

Apologies to the thread, I had to get that out.

A lot of Tory MPs did want to leave nor did the current PM.

 

[Carjosse]

The Conservatives should be so lucky; If they don't push the button the party will split, it's as simple as that and it will be party and power before country just as it was for the referendum.

I voted remain and, I say push the ****ing button NOW or don't do it at all and, where have all these conviction politics Tories disappeared to? If they really believed it, why aren't they pushing it?

Apologies to the thread, I had to get that out.

That may very well happen, not pushing the button and just let it sit for 5 or 10 years then they can claim the referendum is now irrelevant.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

~ just let it sit for 5 or 10 years ~

Industry just wouldn't let that happen.

 

[PeteEU]

Industry just wouldn't let that happen.

Gaw that would be a nightmare for industry in the UK.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

Gaw that would be a nightmare for industry in the UK.

Can you imagine the pressure on the conservative party? The membership are Brexit but the ones who donate the funds won't be. They just want certainty.

 

[Carjosse]

Industry just wouldn't let that happen.

Well it is industry versus politics. Politically it is suicide to press the button.

 

[PeteEU]

Can you imagine the pressure on the conservative party? The membership are Brexit but the ones who donate the funds won't be. They just want certainty.

What membership? I was shocked to learn that more people have signed up for the Labour elections paying 25 pounds than there are Conservative and Lib Dem members... that was shocking.

But yes, the few big money members there are, would be complaining big time... well except the JBC idiot.

 

[Chagos]

~......................I think a lot of second home owners wanted Brexit and suddenly realised they are going to lose out. It's also a time where the falling pound means they can get more money for their euro sales.

You mean more pounds? :2razz:

On a more serious note, those that live in the €-zone all year won't find the prospect of risen cost of living all that palatable.

Also with the status of residency (permission) remaining unclear, many may think to better sell now than when they might be compelled to leave. Unless they can fake a pretty good French, Finnish or German accent, any potential buyer will try to cream them on account of knowing how desperately they HAVE to sell.

 

[Infinite Chaos]

You mean more pounds? :2razz:

Tiredness is my excuse... been using one of these beasts all week to remove tiles and tile adhesive off floors.

My arms and mind were a bit like jelly Thursday onwards. I've realised why you only ever see 18 / 19 yr olds doing this job professionally.

What membership? ~

Yes it's pretty low, they are largely elderly / pensioners who will tend to be Brexit so there is a clash between the members who would have voted for a Brexit PM candidate and the parliamentary party which was majority "remain."

~ Politically it is suicide to press the button.

While I agree, I also think it is really important that we as a country also look at how to make the decision work for us.

 

[Chagos]

Tiredness is my excuse... been using one of these beasts all week to remove tiles and tile adhesive off floors.

My arms and mind were a bit like jelly Thursday onwards. I've realised why you only ever see 18 / 19 yr olds doing this job professionally.......................~

Bah, that's for sissies. REAL men use hammer and chisel.

That said, it's been some time since I qualified for the label, nowadays it has to be good day where I even manage to lift a hammer (arm-shoulder syndrome) :mrgreen:

I can still do a mean bulldozer drive though.:lol:

 

[Infinite Chaos]

Bah, that's for sissies. REAL men use hammer and chisel ~

Changed to the SDS after I noticed a river of blood running down my forearm on Monday after a piece of ceramic tile caught me when I was using the hammer and chisel.. Had thick leather gloves on but the shard shot up my sleeve and I didn't notice till I saw blood on the floor.

Most advice has been just to tile over tiles but the kitchen layout was changed so that wouldn't have worked.

 

[Manc Skipper]

Changed to the SDS after I noticed a river of blood running down my forearm on Monday after a piece of ceramic tile caught me when I was using the hammer and chisel.. Had thick leather gloves on but the shard shot up my sleeve and I didn't notice till I saw blood on the floor.

Most advice has been just to tile over tiles but the kitchen layout was changed so that wouldn't have worked.

That only works to a point. When the kitchen's down to six foot square then a plan "b" is necessary!

 

[Infinite Chaos]

That only works to a point. When the kitchen's down to six foot square then a plan "b" is necessary!

That always puzzled me, mind you most builders will prefer to tile on top of tiles when you're not looking.

 

[Snazzy]

It also appears that the pensions are taking a battering. Old people were the biggest supporters of Brexit - and its cost their pensions £115bn

"The UK pension deficit hit a record level of £935 billion following UK’s vote to leave the EU, likely hitting pro-Brexit voters the hardest. Support for the UK to leave the EU"

Brexit supporters hit with record £935bn pension deficit because of the EU referendum | Business News | News | The Independent

 

[Infinite Chaos]

It also appears that the pensions are taking a battering. Old people were the biggest supporters of Brexit - and its cost their pensions £115bn

"The UK pension deficit hit a record level of £935 billion following UK’s vote to leave the EU, likely hitting pro-Brexit voters the hardest. Support for the UK to leave the EU"

Brexit supporters hit with record £935bn pension deficit because of the EU referendum | Business News | News | The Independent

We have some huge financial holes to worry about: deficit, pension deficit and trade deficit. Financially, things will get worse before they get better.

 

[Snazzy]

Latest figures for the UK's Q2 GDP shows growth of 0.6 % ,higher than B of E predictions of 0.5%. The UK economy looked fairly healthy in the second quarter compared to their friend's in Europe.

Obviously Q2 was post Brexit, so it'll be interesting to see how the Q3 figures will look.

 

[Carjosse]

Latest figures for the UK's Q2 GDP shows growth of 0.6 % ,higher than B of E predictions of 0.5%. The UK economy looked fairly healthy in the second quarter compared to their friend's in Europe.

Obviously Q2 was post Brexit, so it'll be interesting to see how the Q3 figures will look.

I think you mean pre-Brexit. Q2 would have ended with the referendum.

 

[Snazzy]

I think you mean pre-Brexit. Q2 would have ended with the referendum.

Yes, by bad. I meant 'pre' Brexit.

10/10 for observation Carjosse.