• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every persons position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

UK Covid cases could hit 200,000 a day, says scientist behind lockdown strategy

maxparrish

Conservatarian
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 28, 2011
Messages
7,663
Reaction score
2,789
Location
SF Bay Area
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
Neil Ferguson, the scientist who first sounded the lockdown alarm bells over COVID sounds more pessimistic than he did at the onset of lockdowns...

Neil Ferguson

Neil Ferguson. Photograph: Antonio Olmos/The Observer


Covid cases could hit 200,000 a day in the UK this year and cause “major disruption” to the NHS, according to the scientist whose initial modelling helped shape Britain’s coronavirus lockdown strategy.

Prof Neil Ferguson said it was “almost inevitable” that Monday’s final phase of unlocking would bring on 100,000 daily cases, with about 1,000 hospitalizations – despite roughly half the UK being fully vaccinated.

“The real question is do we get to double that – or even higher,” he told BBC One’s Andrew Marr Show on Sunday,. “And that’s where the crystal ball starts to fail. I mean, we could get to 2,000 hospitalizations a day, 200,000 cases a day – but it’s much less certain.”

Daily hospitalizations surpassing 2,000 a day is equivalent to the level in the week leading up to Christmas. Although people currently being hospitalized do not fall as severely ill, and are much less likely to die, Ferguson said that “if you have enough cases, you can still have quite significant burden on the healthcare system … major disruption of services and cancellation of elective surgery and the backlog in the NHS getting longer and longer.”

Yep, sounds like those lockdowns didn't save the UK from the inevitable, with or without vaccines. Perhaps finally learning to live with.
 

Northern Light

The Light of Truth
DP Veteran
Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
6,975
Reaction score
4,326
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
We just need to let the virus run its course through the population, accept that people are going to die, and then eventually there will be genuine herd immunity.

The vaccines are not stopping the variants. They may even be causing them because they only convey partial immunity.

Letting the virus naturally spread now will prevent super lethal mutants from appearing down the road. Respiratory viruses historically become less lethal as more of the population becomes immune.

The current strategy is failing.
 

Mongidig

DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 29, 2018
Messages
9,046
Reaction score
4,809
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
They say that everyone who is currently unvaccinated will get the Delta.

How stupid does a person have to be not to get vaccinated?
 

Napoleon

DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 15, 2012
Messages
13,670
Reaction score
4,833
Location
Columbus, OH
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Moderate
They say that everyone who is currently unvaccinated will get the Delta.

How stupid does a person have to be not to get vaccinated?
40% of those hospitalized in the UK are fully vaccinated. It doesn’t make a big enough difference to stop the pandemic and development of ever more lethal variants.
 

trixare4kids

Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Joined
Nov 16, 2017
Messages
42,706
Reaction score
29,532
Location
S. California
Gender
Female
Political Leaning
Independent
They say that everyone who is currently unvaccinated will get the Delta.

How stupid does a person have to be not to get vaccinated?

Pretty stupid unless they have a legitimate medical reason, but at the end of the day, we can't save everyone.

IOW, in a country such as ours where freedom is valued, we have to step aside, and let it be...
 

Mongidig

DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 29, 2018
Messages
9,046
Reaction score
4,809
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Pretty stupid unless they have a legitimate medical reason, but at the end of the day, we can't save everyone.

IOW, in a country such as ours where freedom is valued, we have to step aside, and let it be...
Even before Covid I thought this country had way too many stupid people. I think we shouldn't just let it be. Stupid people ruin it for everybody. It's time to do something about the stupid people problem we have. Stupid people shouldn't be allowed to vote, drive a car or make the decision whether they want a no brainer vaccine that will save their life.

I think too many people are using "medical" reasons as an excuse. There should be a very small percentage of folks who meet this criteria.
 

trixare4kids

Supporting Member
DP Veteran
Joined
Nov 16, 2017
Messages
42,706
Reaction score
29,532
Location
S. California
Gender
Female
Political Leaning
Independent
Even before Covid I thought this country had way too many stupid people. I think we shouldn't just let it be. Stupid people ruin it for everybody. It's time to do something about the stupid people problem we have. Stupid people shouldn't be allowed to vote, drive a car or make the decision whether they want a no brainer vaccine that will save their life.

I think too many people are using "medical" reasons as an excuse. There should be a very small percentage of folks who meet this criteria.

Maybe time for you to leave freedom loving America? Sounds like a country with a dictator at the wheel might be more to your liking?
 

Monica33

Suspended
Joined
Feb 10, 2021
Messages
1,577
Reaction score
241
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Neil Ferguson .

An amazing man whose forecasts across twenty years of pandemics and epidemics have beeb abysmal . Not poor . Memorably hopeless .

Yet here he is again .And people listen to him . Living proof of the Sheeple as Compliance Gullibles .


Actually a very dangerous operative who as figurehead for SAGE and NERVTAG managed to scam the US and the UK into their first lockdown .

Their models were unbelievably absurd ----- they developed 11 and he sold the political buffoons the most extreme ---" please safeguard our jobs Neil . Better be safe than unemployed !!"

In real life you would not employ him under any circumstances because though he is extremely bright academically he is a typical sociopath whose interests in honesty and accuracy are non existent .
 

Monica33

Suspended
Joined
Feb 10, 2021
Messages
1,577
Reaction score
241
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
They say that everyone who is currently unvaccinated will get the Delta.

How stupid does a person have to be not to get vaccinated?
No chance of catching it if you know what you are doing and how to make yourself a walking and talking antibody machine -- which 98%(?? ) of people do not .

I am pro vaccination but because I am not stupid I would not dream of taking an experimental inoculation of a poison which lacks any safety credentials from anybody , anywhere .

These are not vaccinations . They are experimental gene therapy treatments . And they are failing horrifically and could kill millions based on results to date .

What is even worse is that the so called vaccines have themselves effectively manufactured Delta .But as it is at least 99.7% identical to Alpha there will be no outcomes difference,

whatever you are told by politicians and MSM .


Now off you go for a good laugh CGs . But send gifts and money when you end up having to admit I was 100% right on the money .By Xmas but could be sooner .

xx RIP .
 
Last edited:

Allan

Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 30, 2019
Messages
9,895
Reaction score
9,181
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
We just need to let the virus run its course through the population, accept that people are going to die, and then eventually there will be genuine herd immunity.
That's a tad uncaring don't you think?
The vaccines are not stopping the variants. They may even be causing them because they only convey partial immunity.
Studies have shown current vaccines are effective against variants. For example a recent study found that people fully vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine have 88% immunity from the Delta Variant.
Letting the virus naturally spread now will prevent super lethal mutants from appearing down the road. Respiratory viruses historically become less lethal as more of the population becomes immune.
Letting a virus spread doesn't reduce variants, it increases them.
The current strategy is failing.
The current strategy is working quite nicely in countries that are getting it right - such as Canada. Here infection rates and deaths are steadily declining and the country is able to start reopening as a result of sound government management of the disease and public enthusiasm for getting the jab.
 

Allan

Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 30, 2019
Messages
9,895
Reaction score
9,181
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
What is even worse is that the so called vaccines have themselves effectively manufactured Delta .
Delta was first identified in India, one of the least vaccinated places in the world. As usual you don't know what you're talking about.
 

Monica33

Suspended
Joined
Feb 10, 2021
Messages
1,577
Reaction score
241
Gender
Undisclosed
Political Leaning
Undisclosed
Delta was first identified in India, one of the least vaccinated places in the world. As usual you don't know what you're talking about.
Only vaccines themselves effectively manufacture variants . It's popularly called mutation .

In India Delta wasn't dropped from the sky by Lord Shiva . It mutated out of the previous variant --- itself at least 99.7% identical .

You are so far out of your depth that you are embarrassing .Get a book and start at the beginning .
 

gulfman

DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 21, 2017
Messages
3,193
Reaction score
1,734
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Very Conservative
If Boris Johnson had only acted 2 weeks sooner none of this would have happened
 

Allan

Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 30, 2019
Messages
9,895
Reaction score
9,181
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
Only vaccines themselves effectively manufacture variants .
If that were true variants would originate in the most vaccinated countries but they aren't. Brazil, Africa and India are among the least vaccinated countries and three variants originated from those places, and at a time when very few were vaccinated.

Vaccination is very effective at preventing variants. That's why we don't have Smallpox or Polio any more.
 

snakestretcher

DP Veteran
Joined
Feb 25, 2019
Messages
28,710
Reaction score
10,350
Location
Devonshire, England
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
Neil Ferguson, the scientist who first sounded the lockdown alarm bells over COVID sounds more pessimistic than he did at the onset of lockdowns...

Neil Ferguson

Neil Ferguson. Photograph: Antonio Olmos/The Observer




Yep, sounds like those lockdowns didn't save the UK from the inevitable, with or without vaccines. Perhaps finally learning to live with.
These latest infections are all from the Delta variant which nobody knew would hit. Prior to that lockdowns worked very well, and rates of infection and deaths from Alpha plummeted.
 

snakestretcher

DP Veteran
Joined
Feb 25, 2019
Messages
28,710
Reaction score
10,350
Location
Devonshire, England
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
Pretty stupid unless they have a legitimate medical reason, but at the end of the day, we can't save everyone.

IOW, in a country such as ours where freedom is valued, we have to step aside, and let it be...
Why do you think your 'freedom' is any less valued than mine. Is it any different?
 

snakestretcher

DP Veteran
Joined
Feb 25, 2019
Messages
28,710
Reaction score
10,350
Location
Devonshire, England
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
Only vaccines themselves effectively manufacture variants . It's popularly called mutation .

In India Delta wasn't dropped from the sky by Lord Shiva . It mutated out of the previous variant --- itself at least 99.7% identical .

You are so far out of your depth that you are embarrassing .Get a book and start at the beginning .
You have no idea what you're talking about (you never do)-or do you think the seasonal flu virus and its myriad mutations is a function of vaccines? Here's a heads-up; the flu virus was mutating before vaccines were even thought of. Covid is no different in that respect, but far more deadly.
The only person out of their depth here is you, comrade. 'Not waving, drowning'.
1627124843566.png
 

SMTA

Ketsu no anna
Suspended
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
33,949
Reaction score
8,299
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Independent
Only vaccines themselves effectively manufacture variants . It's popularly called mutation .

In India Delta wasn't dropped from the sky by Lord Shiva . It mutated out of the previous variant --- itself at least 99.7% identical .

You are so far out of your depth that you are embarrassing .Get a book and start at the beginning .
Excellent idea.
I’ll recommend to @Allan to start with Green Eggs and Ham.
 

maxparrish

Conservatarian
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 28, 2011
Messages
7,663
Reaction score
2,789
Location
SF Bay Area
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
These latest infections are all from the Delta variant which nobody knew would hit. Prior to that lockdowns worked very well, and rates of infection and deaths from Alpha plummeted.

In other words, the lockdowns didn't work unless "working" means to reduce a less infectious variant so that a more infectious variant could fill the same environmental niche.

I'm not criticizing Ferguson. His advocacy of lockdowns was based on a lot of guesswork and seemed to be the only option available until a vaccine was developed. As it turned out, in wave after wave that option didn't result in the decreases his modeling predicted. The "curves" were not flattened and no firm correlations between lockdowns and effectiveness were shown.

So here we are for the UK:

Daily hospitalizations of 1000 to 2000 a day are possible. From the article this chart:


1627142491515.png

It's time we learn to live with it. The economies and social health of many nations have been severely damage by repeated lockdowns, major inflation in the US is here (not seen since the early 1980s) .

Virus gonna virus - suck it up and move on.
 

snakestretcher

DP Veteran
Joined
Feb 25, 2019
Messages
28,710
Reaction score
10,350
Location
Devonshire, England
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
In other words, the lockdowns didn't work unless "working" means to reduce a less infectious variant so that a more infectious variant could fill the same environmental niche.

I'm not criticizing Ferguson. His advocacy of lockdowns was based on a lot of guesswork and seemed to be the only option available until a vaccine was developed. As it turned out, in wave after wave that option didn't result in the decreases his modeling predicted. The "curves" were not flattened and no firm correlations between lockdowns and effectiveness were shown.

So here we are for the UK:

Daily hospitalizations of 1000 to 2000 a day are possible. From the article this chart:


View attachment 67344569

It's time we learn to live with it. The economies and social health of many nations have been severely damage by repeated lockdowns, major inflation in the US is here (not seen since the early 1980s) .

Virus gonna virus - suck it up and move on.
Lockdowns actually worked very well in Britain. At one point in 2020 not one new death from the Alpha strain was reported. Then lockdown restrictions were eased. You know the rest...the graph speaks for itself. Currently UK cases are rising by 30,000/week-and all lockdown restrictions have been lifted.
1627143177805.png
 

maxparrish

Conservatarian
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 28, 2011
Messages
7,663
Reaction score
2,789
Location
SF Bay Area
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
Lockdowns actually worked very well in Britain. At one point in 2020 not one new death from the Alpha strain was reported. Then lockdown restrictions were eased. You know the rest...the graph speaks for itself:
View attachment 67344571

That chart says nothing, other than the typical seasonal s-curves of a pandemic that occurs WITHOUT a lockdown.
 
Last edited:

snakestretcher

DP Veteran
Joined
Feb 25, 2019
Messages
28,710
Reaction score
10,350
Location
Devonshire, England
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
That chart says nothing, other than the typical seasonal s-curves of a pandemic that occurs WITHOUT a lockdown.
Oh, you're that familiar with typical seasonal variations? Right now all our restrictions have been lifted and cases are increasing by 30,000 per week. It's Summer; they should be decreasing, like seasonal flu, right?
 

maxparrish

Conservatarian
DP Veteran
Joined
Sep 28, 2011
Messages
7,663
Reaction score
2,789
Location
SF Bay Area
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Conservative
Oh, you're that familiar with typical seasonal variations? Right now all our restrictions have been lifted and cases are increasing by 30,000 per week. It's Summer; they should be decreasing, like seasonal flu, right?

Hence the supposition that this variant is different, more infectious. And so, to repeat, evidence is thin that lockdowns mitigate:



 

snakestretcher

DP Veteran
Joined
Feb 25, 2019
Messages
28,710
Reaction score
10,350
Location
Devonshire, England
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal
Hence the supposition that this variant is different, more infectious. And so, to repeat, evidence is thin that lockdowns mitigate:



I'll read your link in detail later; however it concentrates on America. Lockdowns worked, in Britain, because we had a high percentage of compliance with restrictions while Americans spent their time bickering and whining about 'freedom', and complaining that their 'rights' were being abused by being asked to wear a mask.
 
Top Bottom