• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

U.S. Job Growth Unexpectedly Soared in July

MTAtech

MTAtech

DP Veteran
Joined
Dec 4, 2013
Messages
36,623
Reaction score
35,642
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Liberal

U.S. Job Growth Unexpectedly Soared in July​

(I made this so you shouldn't hit a pay wall)
The employment gains, which far surpassed expectations, show that the labor market is not slowing despite efforts by the Federal Reserve to cool the economy.
...
U.S. employers added 528,000 jobs in July, the Labor Department said on Friday, an unexpectedly strong gain that shows the labor market is withstanding the economic impact of higher interest rates, at least so far.

The impressive performance — which brings the total employment back to its level of February 2020, just before the pandemic lockdowns — provides new evidence that the United States has not entered a recession.
=========
I guess bringing employment back to pre-pandemic levels takes the wind out of the windbags complaining 'Biden hasn't brought back jobs to pre-pandemic numbers.' Yes, he has.

fredgraph.png


It also undercuts the argument that the economy is in a recession. In a recession, unemployment rises. What we had was two quarters of GDP decline (compared to last year) with brisk employment gains. Obviously, those GDP declines were from something other than consumer purchases. Maybe those GDP declines were due to government spending declines?

fredgraph.png
 
Last edited:
MTAtech said:
It also undercuts the argument that the economy is in a recession. In a recession, unemployment rises. What we had was two quarters of GDP decline (compared to last year) with brisk employment gains. Obviously, those GDP declines were from something other than consumer purchases.
Click to expand...

I also heard on the business channel that they are likely to revise 1Q GDP upwards which makes sense given the economy is so hot.
 
MTAtech said:

U.S. Job Growth Unexpectedly Soared in July​

(I made this so you shouldn't hit a pay wall)
The employment gains, which far surpassed expectations, show that the labor market is not slowing despite efforts by the Federal Reserve to cool the economy.
...
U.S. employers added 528,000 jobs in July, the Labor Department said on Friday, an unexpectedly strong gain that shows the labor market is withstanding the economic impact of higher interest rates, at least so far.

The impressive performance — which brings the total employment back to its level of February 2020, just before the pandemic lockdowns — provides new evidence that the United States has not entered a recession.
=========
I guess bringing employment back to pre-pandemic levels takes the wind out of the windbags complaining 'Biden hasn't brought back jobs to pre-pandemic numbers.' Yes, he has.

fredgraph.png


It also undercuts the argument that the economy is in a recession. In a recession, unemployment rises. What we had was two quarters of GDP decline (compared to last year) with brisk employment gains. Obviously, those GDP declines were from something other than consumer purchases. Maybe those GDP declines were due to government spending declines?

fredgraph.png
Click to expand...
Good to see us back to pre-pandemic levels of employment and I hope this means we’re going to avoid a recession. I think a lot depends on what the fed does with the interest rates in the near term.
 
MTAtech said:

U.S. Job Growth Unexpectedly Soared in July​

(I made this so you shouldn't hit a pay wall)
The employment gains, which far surpassed expectations, show that the labor market is not slowing despite efforts by the Federal Reserve to cool the economy.
...
U.S. employers added 528,000 jobs in July, the Labor Department said on Friday, an unexpectedly strong gain that shows the labor market is withstanding the economic impact of higher interest rates, at least so far.

The impressive performance — which brings the total employment back to its level of February 2020, just before the pandemic lockdowns — provides new evidence that the United States has not entered a recession.
=========
I guess bringing employment back to pre-pandemic levels takes the wind out of the windbags complaining 'Biden hasn't brought back jobs to pre-pandemic numbers.' Yes, he has.

fredgraph.png


It also undercuts the argument that the economy is in a recession. In a recession, unemployment rises. What we had was two quarters of GDP decline (compared to last year) with brisk employment gains. Obviously, those GDP declines were from something other than consumer purchases. Maybe those GDP declines were due to government spending declines?

fredgraph.png
Click to expand...
Interesting news considering the slight uptick in unemployment claims, so for those out of work it's good to know the demand for jobs is still holding pretty strong. What I am curious to see over the next few months are the impact of large companies reducing their head count and slowing down hiring. In this report we see professional and business services continuing to add jobs, but much of what I'm reading and hearing is this will slow soon.
 
ElChupacabra said:
Interesting news considering the slight uptick in unemployment claims, so for those out of work it's good to know the demand for jobs is still holding pretty strong. What I am curious to see over the next few months are the impact of large companies reducing their head count and slowing down hiring. In this report we see professional and business services continuing to add jobs, but much of what I'm reading and hearing is this will slow soon.
Click to expand...
I think large companies were anticipating a recession and started to scale back -- in my mind, prematurely. The other reason might be with supply chain issues, those firms produce enough and are scaling back idle workers.
 
SenorXm/Sirius said:
Be interesting to see what the Fed will do in September with the rate.... .25% increase? .75% increase?
Click to expand...
Markets are pricing in a 65% chance of a .75% increase today.

The economy is running too hot.
 
MTAtech said:
I think large companies were anticipating a recession and started to scale back -- in my mind, prematurely. The other reason might be with supply chain issues, those firms produce enough and are scaling back idle workers.
Click to expand...
That's my hope as well.
 
Threegoofs said:
Markets are pricing in a 65% chance of a .75% increase today.

The economy is running too hot.
Click to expand...
The funny thing is that the economy is running too hot but job gains are a good thing. The Fed has to act judiciously to cool price increases while not killing job and GDP growth.

What we are getting is conflicting economic date: High job growth; GDP decline; nice wage growth; inflation. It doesn't point to a recession unless the Fed creates one.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom