4/9/21
Russia will likely remain a “disruptive power” for the next two decades, but its global influence may decline in the face of numerous political, economic, and societal headwinds, according to a U.S. intelligence report released on April 8. The report by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, which is produced every four years, provides a wide-ranging overview of global trends and potential scenarios that likely will shape the U.S. national-security environment in the next 20 years. On Russia, top U.S. intelligence analysts described the country as a “rising and revisionist” power alongside China, keen on reshaping an international order dominated by Western institutions and norms to fit Moscow’s desire for traditional values, noninterference in its internal affairs, and a “Russian-dominated protectorate covering much of Eurasia.” “In the coming years and decades, the world will face more intense and cascading global challenges ranging from disease to climate change to disruptions from new technologies and financial crises,” said the report, titled Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World. The report suggests Russia will continue to use information warfare to amplify divisions in the West, aiming to “engender cynicism among foreign audiences, diminish trust in institutions, promote conspiracy theories, and drive wedges in societies.”
Russia is likely to remain a disruptive power for much or all of the next two decades even as its material capabilities decline relative to other major players,” the report states. “Russia’s advantages, including a sizable conventional military, weapons of mass destruction, energy and mineral resources, an expansive geography, demographics, and a willingness to use force overseas, will enable it to continue playing the role of spoiler and power broker in the post-Soviet space, and at times farther afield.” Meanwhile, Russia is likely to expand relationships in Africa, the Middle East, and elsewhere. Moscow is also looking to increase its economic and military footprint in the Arctic, taking advantage of global warming’s impact on the vast northern region. Despite some of Russia’s political and military advantages, U.S. intelligence analysts assessed the country “may struggle to project and maintain influence globally” due to a poor investment climate, stagnating workforce, a reliance on commodities with volatile prices, and a small economy projected to be only about 2 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) for the next two decades. On the domestic political front, the next two decades in Russia will be determined by President Vladimir Putin's exit from power, either at the end of his current term in 2024 or later.
www.rferl.org
