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U.S. considering controlling exports to Russia if there is an invasion of Ukraine

Yakshi

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A big goal of this move is to keep new iphones out of Russia. In my opinion, this is a big deal. Russians love love love love their iphones. There is no phenomenon like it in America. It is difficult to underestimate their role as a status symbol in that part of the world.

If Russians learned that Putin's sabre-rattling toward Ukraine caused America to take away its iphones?

Anyone with a child and a cookie jar on top of the refrigerator knows what that would be like.

Find American goods that Russians actually value and take them away, thereby eroding Putin's support. Love it.
 
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Felis Leo

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A big goal of this move is to keep new iphones out of Russia. In my opinion, this is a big deal. Russians love love love love their iphones. There is no phenomenon like it in America. It is difficult to underestimate their role as a status symbol in that part of the world.

If Russians learned that Putin's sabre-rattling toward Ukraine caused America to take away its iphones?

Anyone with a child and a cookie jar on top of the refrigerator knows what that would be like.

Find American goods that Russians actually value and take them away, thereby eroding Putin's support. Love it.

What exactly is the end goal of the Russians in taking the Ukraine? Further annexation of all or some of it? Taking Kiev and installing a Kremlin-friendly autocrat like was done in Chechnya? Ukraine has a population of 44 million against Russia's 144 million. This isn't a miniscule country like Georgia with a population of less than 4 million, or Chechnya with its population less than 1.5 million. Their army will punch through the Ukrainian battle lines like a bullet through a beer can. But then what? What else will there be but a massive suppurating guerilla war to drain the blood and what little treasure remains of a massive country like Russia whose GDP is less than that of Italy's?
 

Yakshi

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What exactly is the end goal of the Russians in taking the Ukraine? Further annexation of all or some of it? Taking Kiev and installing a Kremlin-friendly autocrat like was done in Chechnya? Ukraine has a population of 44 million against Russia's 144 million. This isn't a miniscule country like Georgia with a population of less than 4 million, or Chechnya with its population less than 1.5 million. Their army will punch through the Ukrainian battle lines like a bullet through a beer can. But then what? What else will there be but a massive suppurating guerilla war to drain the blood and what little treasure remains of a massive country whose GDP is less than that of Italy's?

I don't think that anyone honestly knows the end goal, but you point to a lot of the problems with a full-scale Russian invasion. Although there are Ukrainians sympathetic to Russia in the eastern part of the country--Ukrainians who openly self-identify as Russians or who use "we're one people" language--there is a lot of hatred toward Russia in the central and western parts of the country.

This isn't 2014 anymore, when Putin enjoyed almost universal support among Russians for his invasion of Crimea.

But on the other hand, I don't know how we can ignore Putin's reputation for machismo. How does he remove his troops from the border and not look weak?
 

Ishm

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What exactly is the end goal of the Russians in taking the Ukraine? Further annexation of all or some of it? Taking Kiev and installing a Kremlin-friendly autocrat like was done in Chechnya? Ukraine has a population of 44 million against Russia's 144 million. This isn't a miniscule country like Georgia with a population of less than 4 million, or Chechnya with its population less than 1.5 million. Their army will punch through the Ukrainian battle lines like a bullet through a beer can. But then what? What else will there be but a massive suppurating guerilla war to drain the blood and what little treasure remains of a massive country like Russia whose GDP is less than that of Italy's?
Maybe Putin needs a nationalistic enhancing distraction from discontent at home. Wouldn't be the first war started for similar reasons. Then he can blame the failing economy etc on the degenerates in the west rather than anything he has done.
 

H B Lowrey

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A big goal of this move is to keep new iphones out of Russia. In my opinion, this is a big deal. Russians love love love love their iphones. There is no phenomenon like it in America. It is difficult to underestimate their role as a status symbol in that part of the world.

If Russians learned that Putin's sabre-rattling toward Ukraine caused America to take away its iphones?

Anyone with a child and a cookie jar on top of the refrigerator knows what that would be like.

Find American goods that Russians actually value and take them away, thereby eroding Putin's support. Love it.
Typical US nation destabilization tactic. Hit the masses, hope they start shit at home. We've done it all over the planet.
 

H B Lowrey

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Maybe Putin needs a nationalistic enhancing distraction from discontent at home. Wouldn't be the first war started for similar reasons. Then he can blame the failing economy etc on the degenerates in the west rather than anything he has done.
America sure does. Win win.
 

XDU

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What exactly is the end goal of the Russians in taking the Ukraine? Further annexation of all or some of it? Taking Kiev and installing a Kremlin-friendly autocrat like was done in Chechnya? Ukraine has a population of 44 million against Russia's 144 million. This isn't a miniscule country like Georgia with a population of less than 4 million, or Chechnya with its population less than 1.5 million. Their army will punch through the Ukrainian battle lines like a bullet through a beer can. But then what? What else will there be but a massive suppurating guerilla war to drain the blood and what little treasure remains of a massive country like Russia whose GDP is less than that of Italy's?
The real issue is tax policy in Ukraine. This is why the Crimean referendum was overwhelmingly pro-Russia. The Euromaiden movement is looked upon as enabling Keynesian deficit spending which would require fiscally responsible people to pay more in taxes to afford social programs.

What we're really looking at is a backwards lite Cold War.
 

Felis Leo

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Maybe Putin needs a nationalistic enhancing distraction from discontent at home. Wouldn't be the first war started for similar reasons. Then he can blame the failing economy etc on the degenerates in the west rather than anything he has done.

While certainly possible, wars are extremely costly affairs. Even relatively short and successful ones. Long, draw-out guerilla wars are one thing that can make a stagnant, failing economy fail even faster as it redirects national spending away from social programs to the purchase and maintenance of tanks, planes and bombs, and draws in your nation's most productive, youngest cohort who should be working and contributing to your nation's elderly's pension accounts and are sent home in body bags or permanently crippled, maimed, limbless or broken-minded as public charges.

The Iraq War was the costliest blunder in American history, even moreso than Vietnam ($1.9 trillion in Iraq vs. $1 trillion adjusted for inflation in Vietnam). It will take years (perhaps decades) to recover from. And we are the richest nation that has ever existed on Earth. Russia doesn't have a tenth our GDP, and it is seeking an Iraq War on its border. While this will be a distraction, if he goes through with a full scale invasion and occupation, I doubt this will be the rally-round-the-flag nationalistic coup that Putin was hoping for.
 
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RabidAlpaca

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The real issue is tax policy in Ukraine. This is why the Crimean referendum was overwhelmingly pro-Russia. The Euromaiden movement is looked upon as enabling Keynesian deficit spending which would require fiscally responsible people to pay more in taxes to afford social programs.

What we're really looking at is a backwards lite Cold War.
*Russia prepares to invade Ukraine, another sovereign nation*

XDU: "The REAL issue is tax policy in Ukraine!"

Nice try, RussiaBot. The real issue is Russia invading other countries. Your attempt to distract and redirect blame is rejected.
 

anatta

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The real issue is tax policy in Ukraine. This is why the Crimean referendum was overwhelmingly pro-Russia. The Euromaiden movement is looked upon as enabling Keynesian deficit spending which would require fiscally responsible people to pay more in taxes to afford social programs.

What we're really looking at is a backwards lite Cold War.
excellent. The Euromaidan was about the Kyiv factions getting their deal with the EU instead of the Russian trade thingy
Putin was offering along with LNG debt relief.

But I've never heard a critique of the EU fiscal policy..good research
 

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*Russia prepares to invade Ukraine, another sovereign nation*

XDU: "The REAL issue is tax policy in Ukraine!"

Nice try, RussiaBot. The real issue is Russia invading other countries. Your attempt to distract and redirect blame is rejected.
You might want to hold your powder until it actually happens
 

XDU

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*Russia prepares to invade Ukraine, another sovereign nation*

XDU: "The REAL issue is tax policy in Ukraine!"

Nice try, RussiaBot. The real issue is Russia invading other countries. Your attempt to distract and redirect blame is rejected.
Putin's a thug, but people will embrace thugs when they get rid of pests.

One man's invasion is another liberation.
 

XDU

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excellent. The Euromaidan was about the Kyiv factions getting their deal with the EU instead of the Russian trade thingy
Putin was offering along with LNG debt relief.

But I've never heard a critique of the EU fiscal policy..good research
Tbh, there's a part of me that wonders why Russia itself didn't try to join the EU for the past 25 years ever since Yeltsin.

They would have had more influence within the organization than outside of it.
 

Felis Leo

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The real issue is tax policy in Ukraine. This is why the Crimean referendum was overwhelmingly pro-Russia. The Euromaiden movement is looked upon as enabling Keynesian deficit spending which would require fiscally responsible people to pay more in taxes to afford social programs.

What we're really looking at is a backwards lite Cold War.

Do you have any proof whatsoever that the Russian-speaking Eastern Ukrainians were deficit hawks who would rather suffer austerity than increased debt to prop up social spending and increase economic activity rather than more strongly identifying as Russian and wanting to be part of the Russian Federation versus feeling like being treated as second-class Ukrainian citizens?
 

XDU

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Do you have any proof whatsoever that the Russian-speaking Eastern Ukrainians were deficit hawks who would rather suffer austerity than increased debt to prop up social spending and increase economic activity rather than more strongly identifying as Russian and wanting to be part of the Russian Federation versus feeling like being treated as second-class Ukrainian citizens?
Yea, I'll have to find it again, but I remember that was the gist of the matter.

I'll review it again tmrw. It's too late now.
 

Felis Leo

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You might want to hold your powder until it actually happens

It did happen, anatta. Russia invaded and then annexed sovereign territory of the Ukraine by holding an unconstitutional referendum in a heavily ethnically Russian-dominated enclave to become an exclave of Russia. It would be little different than Mexico invading and then annexing San Diego because the ethnically-Mexican population of San Diego County voted to rejoin Mexico.
 

Felis Leo

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excellent. The Euromaidan was about the Kyiv factions getting their deal with the EU instead of the Russian trade thingy
Putin was offering along with LNG debt relief.

But I've never heard a critique of the EU fiscal policy..good research

I would want to see evidence that Eastern Ukrainians were simply fiscally responsible deficit hawks rather than Russian nationalists who felt they were being treated as second-class citizens in Ukraine and who wanted to rejoin the Russian Motherland both in body and with the land they occupied.
 

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For the time being, just read here.

It's not exactly what I remember seeing several years ago, but it's along those lines:

 

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What exactly is the end goal of the Russians in taking the Ukraine? Further annexation of all or some of it? Taking Kiev and installing a Kremlin-friendly autocrat like was done in Chechnya?
Yep that's all. Putin would rather be king of his own struggling back yard than a prosperous partner for peace. Russian history - and largely Ukraine's - has been defined by a strongman in the Kremlin and invaders from the west. As far as Putin is concerned, Ukraine getting friendly with NATO is just Napoleon or Hitler by stealth.
 

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I think the Russian youth wants the country to westernize, but there is a strong pull among the older generations to return the motherland to its former glory. Some Russia-supporting Ukrainians feel similarly and openly say so.

Not long ago, a poll of most-loved Russians placed Stalin near the top of the list, behind Gagarin. Meanwhile, Gorbachev was the most-hated, probably for making Russia weak.
 

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Putin's a thug, but people will embrace thugs when they get rid of pests.

One man's invasion is another liberation.
Jesus, Russia is really putting a lot of trolls out there.

You might want to hold your powder until it actually happens
Oh shut up. They're amassing troops on the border. No, I will not ignore the situation until they actually invade. What kind of dumbass logic is that?
 

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I think the Russian youth wants the country to westernize, but there is a strong pull among the older generations to return the motherland to its former glory. Some Russia-supporting Ukrainians feel similarly and openly say so.

Not long ago, a poll of most-loved Russians placed Stalin near the top of the list, behind Gagarin. Meanwhile, Gorbachev was the most-hated, probably for making Russia weak.
So I guess the older generations had a positive experience as citizens of the USSR? Want to return to those better days? Not the anti-Soviet propaganda I was taught as a pup. I've often wondered how these folks reared in communism actually feel about it--probably not as bad as we think.

Interesting, Yakshi. Be their ambassador for us, please. Tell us more.
 

H B Lowrey

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The real issue is tax policy in Ukraine. This is why the Crimean referendum was overwhelmingly pro-Russia. The Euromaiden movement is looked upon as enabling Keynesian deficit spending which would require fiscally responsible people to pay more in taxes to afford social programs.

What we're really looking at is a backwards lite Cold War.
So it's all just predatory quibbling over money as per usual? Well, I don't see how the US can sit this one out.
 

H B Lowrey

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So I guess the older generations had a positive experience as citizens of the USSR? Want to return to those better days? Not the anti-Soviet propaganda I was taught as a pup. I've often wondered how these folks reared in communism actually feel about it--probably not as bad as we think.

Interesting, Yakshi. Be their ambassador for us, please. Tell us more.
Like some suck on Trumpism.
 

Yakshi

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So I guess the older generations had a positive experience as citizens of the USSR? Want to return to those better days? Not the anti-Soviet propaganda I was taught as a pup. I've often wondered how these folks reared in communism actually feel about it--probably not as bad as we think.

Interesting, Yakshi. Be their ambassador for us, please. Tell us more.

I was being facetious with the term "former glory." I think it was more that life in the USSR was bad, but the aftermath was far worse.

All I am really doing is repeating when I heard while I was in Ukraine. I was full of questions, and so I am just repeating what some folks told me. The 1990s were remembered as a brutal time economically--empty shelves, high inflation, plummeting GDP, low investment--and despite how bad things were in Russia, they were even worse in Ukraine. And that decade scarred the older generations, where some view the dissolution of the USSR as a huge mistake. In other words: Look what Gorbachev did to us!

University students, on the other hand, are unencumbered by and uninterested in the 1990s. They love American music, learn English by watching Friends, and save up to buy iPhones. They want to visit America, especially New York City, or move there for good.

The generational divide is immense.
 
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